To The Moon

$Intel(INTC)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on Thursday, October 23, 2025, after market close. The analysis is centered around the company's multi-year turnaround strategy (IDM 2.0) and the crucial role of its foundry and AI initiatives.

Non-GAAP EPS: The consensus estimate is breakeven ($0.00) per share, an increase of 100% year-over-year. Intel previously guided for breakeven non-GAAP EPS.

Revenue: The consensus is around $13.11 billion, representing a slight decline of approximately 1.3% year-over-year. Intel's guidance range for Q3 revenue was $12.6 billion to $13.6 billion.

Narrative: A key focus is on beating the low consensus bar and showing execution strength, especially given the stock's significant rally in 2025.

Intel (INTC) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Intel reported mixed results for the second quarter of 2025 (ending June 28, 2025), which was largely a tale of better-than-expected revenue offset by significantly missed profitability due to one-time charges.

Key Financial and Operational Highlights:

Revenue Beat: Total revenue of $12.9 billion was essentially flat year-over-year but came in above the company's prior guidance range, driven by strong demand in the Client Computing Group (CCG) and Data Center and AI (DCAI) segments, particularly for AI server host CPUs.

Profitability Miss: The Non-GAAP EPS of $(0.10) was significantly below expectations. This was primarily due to one-time items:

• An $800 million non-cash impairment charge and accelerated depreciation for excess prior-generation tools.

• $200 million in one-time period costs.

• Excluding these charges, non-GAAP EPS would have been approximately $0.10, which would have been a beat.

Cost-Cutting and Restructuring: Intel recognized $1.9 billion in restructuring charges (excluded from non-GAAP results) as it completed the majority of its planned core workforce reduction (approximately 15% reduction) and streamlined management layers.

Q3 2025 Financial Guidance:

• Revenue: $12.6 billion to $13.6 billion

• Non-GAAP EPS: Approximately $0.00 (break-even)

• Non-GAAP Gross Margin: Approximately 36.0%

The Lesson Learned from the Guidance Given

The core lesson from Intel's revised strategy, heavily reflected in its guidance and subsequent operational decisions, is a clear shift toward Radical Financial Discipline and Investment Aligned with Customer Demand.

The key guidance-related actions that highlight this lesson are:

Imposing Capital Expenditure (CapEx) Discipline:

• Intel reduced its 2025 Gross CapEx target to $18 billion (down from a prior $20 billion).

• The Lesson: The company openly stated it will no longer invest in foundry capacity (fabs) without "volume commitments" from customers and tangible, locked-in milestones. The $800 million impairment charge for excess, unused equipment serves as a painful confirmation that past CapEx decisions were too ambitious and not adequately tied to concrete market demand. The future is about Smart, Committed Investment, not simply building for potential.

Slowing or Halting Manufacturing Projects:

• The company announced it would not proceed with planned manufacturing projects in Germany and Poland and would slow the construction pace of the Ohio site.

• The Lesson: Building a global, next-generation foundry business (IDM 2.0) is costly and risky, requiring a re-evaluation of its manufacturing footprint. Financial health and capital efficiency take precedence over geopolitical ambition or pure scale. The strategic path forward for the foundry business must be financially disciplined and de-risked by customer commitments.

Aggressive Operating Expense (OpEx) Reduction:

• Intel reiterated its non-GAAP OpEx target of $17 billion for 2025 and an even more aggressive $16 billion for 2026.

• The Lesson: To fund its critical technology and product roadmaps (like 18A), the core business must generate maximum efficiency. The workforce reduction and organizational flattening are necessary to remove structural costs and create a leaner, more agile organization that can better compete with rivals like AMD and TSMC. Operational excellence and cost control are now paramount to maintaining a viable business while the multi-year turnaround progresses.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

The headline numbers (Revenue and EPS) are important, but the market's reaction will hinge on underlying strategic progress:

Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) - Crucial for Turnaround

Expected to be around 36% (per company guidance). Any stabilization or improvement in gross margin is a major positive sign, as it reflects manufacturing efficiency and pricing power.

Data Center and AI (DCAI) Revenue - High-Growth Market Traction

Analysts expect revenue around $3.96 billion (up $\sim18.4\%$ YoY). Investors need to see strong growth in this segment to confirm Intel's competitiveness against rivals, especially in the AI server market.

Client Computing Group (CCG) Revenue - Core Business Health

Expected to be around $8.13 billion (up 10.9% YoY). The market is watching for signs of a PC market rebound, especially with the ramp-up of AI PCs.

Intel Foundry Services (IFS) Updates - Long-Term Strategy Validation

Focus is not just on the $4.37 billion revenue projection, but on securing external customer wins and progress on the Intel 18A process node. Execution here is vital for the IDM 2.0 strategy.

Free Cash Flow (FCF) & CapEx - Financial Discipline

Monitoring the FCF burn rate, as the company is heavily investing in new manufacturing capacity. Any change to the full-year Capital Expenditures (CapEx) guidance will be a major market mover.

Q4 2025 Guidance - Future Outlook

The forecast for the next quarter's revenue and EPS will indicate the expected trajectory of the cyclical recovery and the success of new product ramps.

Intel (INTC) Price Target

Based on 35 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Intel in the last 3 months. The average price target is $28.00 with a high forecast of $43.00 and a low forecast of $14.00. The average price target represents a -26.54% change from the last price of $38.12.

Opportunity for Short-Term Trading

Trading Intel stock post-earnings is considered high-risk and high-volatility.

• Historical Volatility: Intel's stock has a history of significant post-earnings price swings, with a median move often in the 7% to 8% range in either direction.

• Bullish Scenario: A significant beat on non-GAAP EPS and revenue, coupled with an improved Gross Margin and a major announcement in the IFS segment (like a new external customer win), could lead to a strong upward move.

• Bearish Scenario: A miss on the breakeven EPS, a downward revision of Q4 guidance, or further disappointment in Gross Margin or the Data Center segment could trigger a sharp pullback, especially as some analysts believe the recent rally is overextended.

Short-term traders should prepare for a volatile event and pay close attention to the forward guidance and the non-GAAP Gross Margin figure.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing Intel having a continued positive RSI momentum, but we can see that Intel have been trading sideways, though the bulls are trying to make a continued upside, this might be due to investors waiting to see if Intel have really make a case of successful turnover.

And the next quarter guidance could be something that investors wanted to look at for trajectory of cyclical recovery, so I think we could continue to watch the price action to see if there is any opportunities for a short-term trade.

Summary

Intel's upcoming Q3 2025 earnings are expected to be a critical test of its turnaround, with the company recently projecting revenue and non-GAAP EPS to be above the high end of its initial guidance range of $12.6 billion to $13.6 billion.

Key focuses for analysts include:

1. Client Computing Group (CCG) Demand: Stronger-than-anticipated sales of its new Core Ultra processors for the "AI PC" market are a major driver of the raised outlook.

2. Data Center and AI (DCAI) Performance: Investors are watching for signs that its Xeon and Gaudi products are competing effectively and driving growth against strong competition.

3. Intel Foundry Services (IFS): Progress on the manufacturing roadmap (especially the 18A node), external customer wins, and the profitability of the foundry business remain core to the long-term IDM 2.0 strategy.

4. Financial Discipline: Continued execution on cost-cutting measures and managing heavy capital expenditures (CapEx) are crucial for stabilizing the bottom line.

The consensus non-GAAP EPS is often projected around breakeven or a slight positive, demonstrating the challenges of its simultaneous turnaround and investment cycle.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Intel could provide a much positive guidance for the Q4, which could suggest a trajectory of cyclical recovery.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.