To The Moon

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ 

Executive Summary:

I’m convinced that PLTR is entering a new paradigm of growth and execution, with Q3 2025 acting as the ignition point. The catalyst: explosive U.S. commercial growth (+121% YoY) paired with an elite Rule of 40 score of 114%, prompting a material guidance raise and institutional momentum. Even measured against giants like NVDA and HOOD, Palantir’s combination of scale, margin and structural moat demands respect. The stock is signalling a 50–100% upside over the next 12–18 months and, based on volume and options flow ahead, momentum is building.

Financial Performance Breakdown:

• Revenue hit US$1.181 billion in Q3 FY25 (+63% YoY).

• U.S. Commercial revenue surged to US$397 million (+121% YoY).

• U.S. Government business rose to US$486 million (+52% YoY).

• International Commercial came in at approximately US$152 million (+10% YoY).

• International Government advanced to about US$147 million (+66% YoY).

• Net Dollar Retention (NDR) climbed to 134%, up 600 bps YoY.

• Adjusted Operating Margin ~51%; Rule of 40 = 63% + 51% = 114%.

• Guidance: Q4 revenue expected at US$1.327–1.331 billion (~61% YoY); FY25 revenue raised to US$4.396–4.40 billion (+~53% YoY).

• Cash & equivalents roughly US$6.4 billion, with negligible debt.

Strategic Headwinds & Execution Risk:

While the headline numbers are impressive, I’m tracking several execution and structural risks:

• Lagging international commercial growth (just approx +10% YoY) leaves revenue ~77% U.S.-centric and exposes the company to domestic policy shifts.

• Sustaining 120%+ U.S. commercial growth on an expanding base invites elongated enterprise sales cycles and scope-creep.

• Valuation is extremely elevated (465–690× trailing P/E), meaning any margin slip-up or growth stall could trigger steep downside.

• Macro risks: interest-rate uncertainty, government spending cuts, and global supply-chain disruption.

• Large defence/government contracts drive scale, but deliverables are lumpy and politically exposed.

Analyst & Institutional Sentiment:

• 13F filings show institutional accumulation, yet contrarian signals exist; hedge funds like Michael Burry’s Scion added large put exposure in PLTR, flagging valuation risk despite strong execution.

• Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest trimmed its PLTR stake after earnings, selling 38,338 shares via the ARK Innovation ETF, worth about US$7.9M at US$207.18. This followed an additional US$3.9M in sales on Thursday. Despite Palantir’s stellar results, Ark’s consistent offloading likely reflects profit-taking after significant YTD gains rather than deteriorating conviction.

• Analyst consensus sits around a Hold, average price target ~US$144.33, though bullish initiations are emerging.

• Options flow: overt call sweeps (222,000 calls vs 80,000 puts in November expiry) and short interest at ~5.2% of float signal elevated positioning and squeeze potential.

• Accelerating inclusion in AI-themed ETFs and fund rotations provides tailwinds, but dependency on narrative leaves the stock exposed to sentiment reversals.

Technical Setup:

• On the weekly chart, PLTR clearly broke above the 1.618 log Fibonacci level at US$186.27, with the next stretch target at the 2.0 level of US$237.87.

• Current price ~US$205; breakout backed by volume expansion and consolidation above broken resistance.

• RSI approximately 68–72; while elevated, momentum remains intact and no divergence yet.

• MACD histogram widening positively; EMAs (21-day, 50-day) trending upward and Keltner bandwidth expanding post-earnings.

• Pre-earnings flagged a bull-flag pattern with compression inside narrow Bollinger bands; breakout resolved upward, now grounding in an inside-bar consolidation.

• Trade plan: Entry at US$200–210 on retest; stop-loss at US$170 (below pivot). Base target US$240 (6–9 months); stretch target US$300+ (12–18 months if momentum sustains).

Macro & Peer Context:

• Palantir sits at the intersection of enterprise GenAI adoption, national-security analytics and big-data infrastructure. Global capex trends (AI, defence, software transformation) are structurally aligned.

• Peer comparison: Nvidia leads inference hardware at ~33× forward P/E; Robinhood flashed a robust Rule of 40 but lacks enterprise network effects. Palantir holds ~114% Rule of 40, benchmark-setting.

• Software industry average P/E ~35×; Nasdaq ~28×. PLTR’s multiple reflects a narrative premium rather than pure metrics.

• AI market sized at ~$12 trillion projected by 2030; Palantir positions itself as the OS layer, not just a component. That gives it structural leverage beyond peers.

Valuation & Capital Health:

• Trailing P/E here ~690× (per chart).

• Price-to-Sales ~108× based on FY25 guidance and current market cap.

• Strong cash position (~US$6.4 bn) gives flexibility for M&A, R&D or product accelerations without debt burden.

• Free cash-flow margin ~46–50% in Q3 suggests remarkable profitability for a high‐growth company.

• Valuation is pricing near perfection; reward hinges on flawless execution and sustained momentum.

Verdict & Trade Plan:

I am bullish; I rate PLTR as a Buy with conviction, subject to execution caveats.

• Entry zone: US$200–210 on retest.

• Stop-loss: US$170.

• Base price target: US$240 (6–9 mths).

• Stretch target: US$300+ (12–18 mths) if institutional flows persist and growth sustains.

• Confirmation signals: increased call-sweep volume, 13F filings showing accumulation, and U.S. commercial growth >100% in Q4.

• Upcoming catalysts: Q4 earnings (Feb/March 2026), major government contract wins (U.S. Army deployment), product announcements for AIP, HiveMind and Edge-Ontology.

Conclusion:

I’m not simply pointing at strong numbers; I’m seeing a structural rerating in motion. Palantir’s AI platform is already deployed across U.S. defence, large enterprises and global mission sets. The Rule of 40 at 114% is not vanity; it’s proof of convergence between scale and margin. The valuation is lofty, but the task ahead justifies it. Execution beats hype. That’s why I’m playing this one.

Key Takeaways:

• Revenue US$1.181 bn (+63% YoY).

• U.S. Commercial US$397 m (+121% YoY); Government US$486 m (+52% YoY).

• Rule of 40 at 114% (63% + 51%).

• Guidance: FY25 revenue US$4.396–4.40 bn (+~53% YoY).

• Valuation: P/E ~690× vs software avg ~35×.

• Technical breakout: target US$237.87+; entry US$200–210.

• Cash position US$6.4 bn; free cash flow margin ~46–50%.

• Institutional/Options: Calls dominate; short interest ~5.2% of float.

• Macro tailwinds: AI, defence budgets, enterprise analytics.

• Risks: International growth lag, high valuation, U.S. policy exposure.

👉❓What’s your take on Palantir’s next inflection point and which trigger, U.S. commercial expansion, government deal flow, or the global roll-out of AIP, could unlock the biggest upside for $PLTR?

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