To The Moon

Tickers Involved: NVDA, AMD, TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, META, PLTR, HOOD, CRCL

$NVDA$

• Key News:

  • NVIDIA partners with RedCloud on a $280 million Saudi trade project, using NVIDIA tech to optimize the AI platform.

  • Jensen Huang revises previous statement that "China will dominate the AI race," emphasizing the US-China tech gap is merely "nanoseconds."

  • Collaboration with Deutsche Telekom on a €1 billion data center project involving 10,000 GPUs.

• Options Analysis:

  • Market Sentiment: Elevated Implied Volatility (IV 54.5%)预示着 significant price swings. Overall bias leans bullish, but large funds are actively hedging downside risk.

  • Short-term (til 11/14): Expected range-bound action between $180 - $195.

  • Near-term (til 11/21): Range likely expands to $175 - $205.

  • Key Support: $180. A historical bounce level and dense Put wall, acting as a "floor."

  • Key Resistance: $195. A dense Call wall; breaching this is crucial for challenging the $200 milestone.

  • Puts are heavily concentrated at $180, forming strong support.

  • Calls are primarily targeted at $195, creating a supply zone.

• Options Strategy Reference:

  • Sell Put: $NVDA 20251114 180.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: $180 is strong support with high liquidity. ~15.75% Prob ITM, ~84% Win Rate. Premium ~$1.43 captures time decay.

  • Logic: Probability of a short-term oversold bounce is increasing, but given high IV, selling Puts to collect premium is preferred.

$AMD$

• Key News:

  • AMD Q3 earnings beat expectations. Client segment revenue hit a record $2.8B, total revenue grew 36% YoY to $9.2B.

  • Strategic partnership with OpenAI; approved for China export of MI308 chips (not included in Q4 guidance).

  • BofA Securities reiterates "Buy," expects growth inflection in H2 2026; Analyst Day may raise AI TAM forecast to >$1T by 2030.

• Options Analysis:

  • Market expects sharp moves (High IV). While bulls dominate, large funds are buying Puts for hedging, indicating caution against a drop.

  • 1-Day: Expected range $230 - $245.

  • 1-Week: Range expands to $225 - $260. A break above $250 on positive catalysts could fuel further upside.

  • Key Support: $235/$230. A strong "floor." Breaking $235 may trigger heavier selling.

  • Key Resistance: $250. A key "ceiling;" breach needed for sustained upward momentum.

  • Puts are heavily stacked from $240 down to $230, forming a solid defense.

  • Calls are concentrated at $250/$255, awaiting a breakout.

• Options Strategy Reference:

  • Sell Put: $AMD 20251114 225.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: $230 is strong support. High IV offers rich premium. Win Rate ~99%. Profit from time decay if price stabilizes.

$TSLA$

• Key News:

  • On Nov 6, Tesla shareholders approved CEO Elon Musk's ~$1T compensation package, granting him 423M new shares (~10% of outstanding shares), potentially causing dilution and near-term selling pressure.

  • Some shareholders/institutions criticized the package as overly favoring Musk, contributing to TSLA's 3.5% drop that day.

  • The meeting also approved moving the corporate domicile to Texas. Market concerns remain over governance disputes.

• Options Analysis:

  • Market expects significant volatility (IV 71%). Overall sentiment leans bullish but beware of pullback risks.

  • Short-term (til 11/14): Expected range $430 - $460.

  • Near-term (til 11/21): Range may expand to $420 - $470.

  • Key Support: $430 (recent low). Next support at $420.

  • Key Resistance: $460 (near recent highs). Breakout needed for further upside.

  • Calls are concentrated at $440/$450, betting on continued rises.

  • Puts form a defense at $420/$430, providing downside protection.

• Options Strategy Reference:

  • Sell Put: $TSLA 20251114 430.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: Win Rate 70.4% (Prob ITM 29.6%). $430 is near support. High IV boosts premium income. Suitable for buy-on-dip strategy.

$AAPL$

• Key News:

  • Apple recently reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings and entered a ~$1B annual AI deal with Google, using its 1.2T parameter model to upgrade Siri (expected 2026 launch).

  • Analysts believe AAPL could target $400. Institution Avion Wealth increased its stake by 14.6%.

• Options Analysis:

  • Current IV is not high, indicating no excessive panic, but sentiment is cautious. Options data shows bulls and bears battling at key levels.

  • 1-Week (til 11/14): Expected narrow range $260 - $275.

  • 2-Weeks (til 11/21): Range may widen to $255 - $280.

  • Key Support: $260. A recent low with substantial Put protection, forming a key defense.

  • Key Resistance: $275. A recent high with heavy Call concentration, creating resistance.

  • Puts show high open interest at $270, but low exercise probability suggests more premium selling, indicating perceived low crash risk.

  • Calls are focused at $275, attempting to push the price above recent highs.

• Options Strategy Reference:

  • Sell Put: $AAPL 20251114 270.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: Price holding above $260 support. Selling the $270 PUT collects premium with ~84.14% Win Rate (low Prob ITM). Ample liquidity.

$AMZN$

• Key News:

  • AWS recently saw its fastest quarterly growth since 2022. Signed a $38B cloud deal with OpenAI, driving AMZN up 9% and adding over $300B in market cap.

  • Institutions like Davidson Investment significantly increased AMZN stakes in Q3, showing stronger long-term confidence.

  • AMZN pulled back from its ATH of $254 to $243.04, with a weekly swing of 8.3%, due to profit-taking post-earnings.

• Options Analysis:

  • Market expects moderate volatility. Sentiment neutral-bullish, but large funds selling Puts warrants caution for a short-term pullback.

  • 1-Week (til 11/14): Expected range $235 - $255.

  • 2-Weeks (til 11/21): Range may expand to $230 - $260.

  • Key Support: $235-$240. Dense Put zone forming combined support.

  • Key Resistance: $250-$255. Call open interest peak creates a strong resistance zone.

  • Puts defend $240/$235.

  • Calls are heavily concentrated at $250/$255, making a breakout difficult.

• Options Strategy Reference:

  • Sell Put: $AMZN 20251114 230.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: $230 is near historical support. High OI provides liquidity. Implied Win Rate >85%. Collect premium if price stabilizes.

$META$

• Key News:

  • META faces dual pressures: Internal documents suggest ~10% of revenue (~$16B) comes from high-risk scam ads, posing regulatory risks.

  • Market concerns about aggressive AI spending, potentially repeating the Metaverse investment failure history that crashed the stock.

• Options Analysis:

  • Market expects high volatility (IV 38.5%). Fierce battle between bulls and bears at key levels.

  • Short-term (til 11/14): Expected range $600 - $650. Negative news may cap rebound height.

  • Mid-term (til 11/21): Range expands to $590 - $670.

  • Key Support: $620. Highly concentrated Put wall, a recognized strong "floor."

  • Key Resistance: $650. Both a technical prior high and a dense Call zone, forming a strong "ceiling."

  • Puts are heavily concentrated in the $620-$630 area.

  • Calls are focused above $650, awaiting a breakout.

• Options Strategy Reference:

  • Sell Put: $META 20251114 600.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: High liquidity, Win Rate ~85%. Justification: Strong support at $620, collect premium betting on price stabilization.

  • Risk Warning: Stop loss needed if regulatory probe drives price below $600.

$PLTR$

• Key News:

  • Daiwa Securities raised PLTR price target from $178 to $200 on Nov 7, maintaining "Neutral"; HSBC also raised PT to $197.

  • SouthState Corp increased its PLTR stake by 21.3% in Q2, showing institutional confidence.

• Options Analysis:

  • Market expects sharp volatility (IV 64%). Sentiment slightly bullish but wary of selling pressure below.

  • Short-term (til 11/14): Expected range $165 - $185.

  • Mid-term (til 12/19): Range expands to $160 - $195.

  • Key Support: $170 (recent low & dense Put area). Break targets $160 next.

  • Key Resistance: $180 (previous congestion zone). Breakout opens path to $190 mid-term.

  • Puts are heavily concentrated at $170-$175.

  • Calls are focused at $180, with mid-term target at $190.

• Options Strategy Reference:

  • Sell Put: $PLTR 20251114 160.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: $170 is strong support. Selling Puts collects premium; profitable if selloff halts. Win Rate ~88%.

$HOOD$

• Key News:

  • Q3 revenue $1.27B (+100% YoY), EPS $0.61, vastly beating $0.53 estimate. Crypto revenue surged 339% YoY, but slowing growth in crypto business raised concerns.

  • CEO outlined a 10-year expansion plan. Average analyst target $153, KeyBanc raised PT to $160.

  • Despite strong results, stock fell 10.81% in one day to $127.08 due to CFO retirement plans and profit-taking after high expectations.

• Options Analysis:

  • Market expects high volatility (IV 73%). Overall sentiment bullish but clearly divergent.

  • Very Short-term (til 11/7): Expected range $120 - $135.

  • Short-term (til 11/14): Range expands to $115 - $140.

  • Key Support: $120. The most concentrated Put wall, the "strongest defense line."

  • Key Resistance: $135-$140. $135 is key pressure level; $140 above has dense Calls.

  • Puts set defenses at $120 and $125.

  • Calls target above $135.

  • Institutional block trades selling Puts indicate pros see difficulty falling below $135.

• Options Strategy Reference:

  • Sell Put: $HOOD 20251114 115.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: High liquidity, Prob ITM 23.53%, Win Rate ≈76.47%.

  • Logic: $120 is strong support. High probability of rebound post-earnings selloff. Collect premium while betting on stabilization.

$CRCL$

• Key News:

  • Strong Q2 earnings: Revenue $658M, +56% YoY, driven by expanded USDC circulation and interest income. But stock down 16% pre-market, possibly reflecting crypto volatility concerns.

  • Recent Bitcoin swings weighed on sector sentiment. CRCL一度 down over 8% pre-market.

• Options Analysis:

  • Market expects high volatility (IV 105%). Expensive options, clear bull-bear divergence.

  • Short-term (til 11/14): Expected wide range $90 - $120.

  • Mid-term (til 11/21): Range may expand to $85 - $130.

  • Key Support: $90. Year-to-date low with highly concentrated Puts, forming a key defense.

  • Key Resistance: $120. October rebound high with heavy Call concentration, creating strong resistance.

  • Puts are heavily deployed in the $90-$100 range.

  • Calls are concentrated at $120, attempting a breakout.

• Options Strategy Reference:

  • Sell Put: $CRCL 20251114 90.0 PUT$ 

  • Rationale: High liquidity, Prob ITM 22.4%, Win Rate ≈77.6%.

  • Justification: $90 is strong support. Collect premium if price stabilizes; high IV favors sellers.