SPX has remained above its 50-day moving average for 134 straight days
The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has remained above its 50-day moving average for 134 straight days.
This is the 5th longest streak ever. When will this end?
I cannot predict the exact date this streak will end—no one can reliably time markets.
However, the historical data you're referencing reveals important patterns about what typically happens when such extraordinary runs finally break.
Key Insights from Past 134+ Day Streaks:
The table shows only four comparable instances since 1957 (the "November 10, 2025" entry appears to be a data error), making this a very rare event:
October 1958 - Ended near the late-1950s bull market peak
May 1961 - Ended just before the "Kennedy Slide" of 1962
July 1995 - Ended during the powerful mid-90s secular bull market
February 2007 - Ended just before the financial crisis bear market
What Happened Next (On Average):
Timeframe | Avg Return | % Positive |
|---|---|---|
1 day later | +0.11% | 50% |
2 days later | -0.22% | 0% |
3 days later | -0.67% | 25% |
1 week later | -1.14% | 0% |
1 month later | -0.80% | 25% |
Critical Observations:
Immediate weakness: In 100% of historical cases, the market was lower 2 days and 1 week after the streak ended
Short-term damage: Average drawdowns reached -1.26% within a week and -3.08% within a month
Small sample size: Only 4 instances makes statistical significance questionable
Different eras: Each occurred in vastly different economic and valuation environments
What Would End It Technically?
The streak ends the moment the S&P 500 closes even one point below its 50-day moving average. At current levels, that would likely require a 2-4% drop from wherever the index is trading.
Watch These Catalysts Rather Than a Calendar:
Federal Reserve policy shifts (rate cut expectations reversing)
Geopolitical shocks or unexpected economic data
Earnings recession signals
Technical divergences (weakening breadth, momentum)
A spike in volatility (VIX) breaking above 20-25
Bottom Line: Historical precedent suggests short-term weakness is highly probable when the streak breaks, but the timing depends on unpredictable catalysts.
Focus on risk management—such as position sizing and stop-loss levels—rather than betting on a specific date. The streak's end will likely be obvious in hindsight but appears random in real-time.
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