To The Moon

$NVDA$
Key News:

• GMI Cloud Partnership: NVDA and GMI Cloud are building a $500 million AI factory in Taiwan, equipped with 7,000 GPUs, serving as a core node for AI infrastructure in Asia.

• Anthropic Investment: NVDA plans to invest $10 billion in AI firm Anthropic, pushing its valuation to $350 billion and strengthening its position in generative AI.

• Supercomputer Deployment: Japan’s RIKEN institute will deploy 2,140 NVDA Blackwell GPUs to build a next-gen AI/quantum computing system, expected to go live in 2026.

• Market Sentiment & Stock Price: NVDA fell 4.69% over two days (closed at $181.36 on 11/18). Market focus is on Q3 earnings (expected after market close on 11/19) and supply chain bottlenecks.

Options Analysis:

• Implied Volatility (IV): 58.89% (81.6th percentile), indicating expectations for sharp near-term moves.

• This Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Expected range: $178–192. High IV and Put/Call Ratio of 1.8 reflect bullish bias amid multi-way positioning.

• Next Week (Nov 21 Expiry): Expected range: $170–200. Time value widens range; a strong earnings beat could trigger a test of $200.

• Call Concentration: 185/190/200 Calls show highest OI (61k–143k contracts), indicating bets on a rebound.

• Put Concentration: 170/175 Puts hold 12k–17k contracts, suggesting support has shifted down to $170.

• Technical Levels: Near-term support at $180 (recent low), resistance at $195–200 (congestion zone).

Strategy Ideas:

• Sell Put (High Risk/Reward): $NVDA 20251128 170.0 PUT$ 
  Premium: ~$3.70, OI: 12,761 (high liquidity)
  Rationale: $170 is strong support, Probability of Profit (PoP) ≈77%, IV premium offers margin of safety.
  Stop: Close if stock breaks below $165 (9% below current price).

• Bull Call Spread (Earnings Rebound Bet):
  Buy $NVDA 20251121 185.0 CALL$  ($6.60) + Sell $NVDA 20251121 200.0 CALL$  ($2.10)
  Net Cost: $4.50, Max Profit: ~$10.50 (spread between 185–200)
  Rationale: Bets on post-earnings rebound toward $195–200, Call OI cluster may add momentum.
  Stop: Close if stock breaks below $180.

Risk Note: IV may spike then drop around earnings; avoid naked deep OTM option buys—favor spreads or premium-selling strategies.

$AMD$
Key News:

• AI Chip Momentum: BofA analysts believe AMD can capture ~10% of data center GPU market in 5 years (currently ~3–4%), with total AI chip market expected to exceed $400 billion.

• Q1 2025 Earnings: Revenue of $7.44 billion (+36% YoY), Data Center segment +59% YoY. CEO Lisa Su targets >80% AI revenue CAGR, aiming for $34 billion by 2030.

Options Analysis:

• Volatility & Sentiment: IV 64.04% (84th percentile), IV/HV ratio 1.00, indicating options price in near-term volatility risk. Put/Call Ratio 1.23 shows slight bullish tilt.

• This Week (Nov 21 Expiry): Expected range: $215–250. Support at $230 (recent low), resistance at $245 (Put OI cluster).

• Next Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Expected range: $200–260. Key support at $210 (block Put flow), resistance at $250 (Call OI concentration).

• Call Interest: 250 Call (Nov 28) OI 17,306, reflecting upside bets.

• Put Interest: 230 Put (Nov 21) OI 2,560, signaling clear support.

Strategy Ideas:

• Sell Put: $AMD 20251121 230.0 PUT$ 
  Rationale: OI 2,560 (decent liquidity), IV 61.18%, Probability of Profit 34.13%. If AMD holds $230, collect premium.
  Stop: Close if stock breaks $220 (technical breakdown).

• Sell Put: $AMD 20251128 250.0 PUT$ 
  Rationale: OI 5,399, IV 77.62%, Probability of Profit 47.62%. Bets on stabilization post-earnings.
  Stop: Close if stock breaks $240 (resistance break fails).

Core Logic: Use high IV to sell premium; choose strikes with solid support; keep position size ≤5% of capital.

$INTC$
Key News:

• New CIO Appointment: Intel named Cindy Stoddard as CIO (effective Dec 1), previously led global IT and cloud at Adobe—may accelerate digital transformation.

• Data Center Dynamics: Coverage highlights Intel’s cooperation and competition with NVDA in data center chips, with Arm gradually eroding Intel’s share.

• Fund Flows & Technicals: 3-day net outflows of $1.78 million, cost basis $20.34, stock recently down to $34.33 (–1.09%), approaching key support.

Options Analysis:

• IV: 63.10% (63.6th percentile), above historical average, pricing in elevated near-term volatility.

• Directional Bias: Put/Call Ratio 1.88 suggests near-term optimism but watch for pullback risk.

• This Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Expected range: $34–36. $34 is Put OI cluster (OI 2,728), $35 Call OI 29,726 creates two-way flow; high IV supports breakout attempts.

• Next Week (Dec 5 Expiry): Range may widen to $33–37. $35.5–36 Puts show OI 4,236; resistance at $37 Call (OI 26,594).

• Support: $34 (weekly Put cluster), $33 (historical retracement low)

• Resistance: $35 (Call OI peak), $37 (technical prior high)

Strategy Ideas:

• Sell Put (Weekly): $INTC 20251128 34.0 PUT$ 
  Rationale: $34 is dense support; selling Put captures time value in high IV; win rate ~72% per OI distribution.
  Stop: Close if stock breaks $33.5 (support fails).

• Sell Put (Next Week): $INTC 20251205 33.0 PUT$ 
  Rationale: $33 is strong support, OI 17,376 offers liquidity, PoP ~79%.
  Stop: Close if stock breaks $32.5.

Risk Note: Negative news (e.g., data center order losses) could trigger breakdown—enforce strict stops.

$MU$
Key News:

• No major fundamental news today, but investor forums show divided sentiment. MU hit a high of $260.58 before pulling back to close at $228.5 (–5.56% on 11/18). Some fear near-term correction, though structural super-cycle expectations in memory remain. Note: discussions reflect sentiment, not official information.

Options Analysis:

• Volatility Expectations: IV 84.07% (98.4th percentile), above historical average, pricing in sharp moves. IV/HV 1.28 suggests near-term volatility may persist.

• This Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Key support $220 (Put OI cluster), resistance $230 (high Call/Put OI). Expected range: $210–240. High IV leaves price vulnerable to sentiment swings.

• Next Week (Dec 19 Expiry): Range expands; support $200–205, resistance $250. IV stays elevated—event risk may drive direction.

• Call Pressure Zones: $230 (Dec Call OI 1,164), $250 (Call OI 8,809)

• Put Protection Levels: $210 (Put OI 950), $200 (Put OI 1,542)

Strategy Ideas:

• Sell Call: $MU 20251128 230.0 CALL$ 
  Rationale: $230 is clear resistance; high IV offers rich premium; time decay favorable. OI 1,164 ensures liquidity.
  Stop: Close if stock breaks above $240.

• Sell Put: $MU 20251219 210.0 PUT$ 
  Rationale: $210 is dense support; Put OI 950; Probability of Profit 80.61%; market pessimism may be overdone.
  Stop: Close if stock breaks $200.

Risk Control: High near-term volatility risk; keep position size ≤10%; avoid naked short options.

$ORCL$
Key News:

• Rating Change: Baird cut Oracle target from $365 to $315, kept Outperform rating, reflecting near-term caution.

• Debt Issuance: Oracle issued $18 billion in bonds in September, raising leverage concerns.

• Accounting Questions: “Big Short” investor Burry accused Oracle of underreporting data center depreciation, potentially inflating profits—triggering credibility worries.

• Market Dynamics: SoftBank cleared its Oracle position in Q3; AI cloud orders are growing but stock is down 36% from YTD high, showing divided sentiment.

Options Analysis:

• IV: 69.75% (near all-time high), indicating expected turbulence.

• This Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Expected range: $215–230. Puts at 200 & 215 show OI >20k; $215 is key psychological support.

• Next Week (Dec 5 Expiry): Range may widen to $210–240; IV may ease but remains high; resistance clusters at $240 (Call OI concentration).

• Technicals: Near-term support $215 (3-month low), resistance $235 (prior breakdown zone).

• Institutional Dip-Buying: Jan 2026 195 Put saw 9,540 contracts sold, betting on long-term support.

• Hedging Demand: 3548 lots of Nov 21 215 Put bought, suggesting short-term protection.

Strategy Ideas:

• Sell Put: $ORCL 20251128 215.0 PUT$ 
  Premium: $5.30, OI: 5,515 (good liquidity)
  Logic: $215 is strong support; collect high premium amid elevated IV; break below 215 has ~28% probability.

• Bull Call Spread:
  Buy $ORCL 20251128 220.0 CALL$  ($6.10) + Sell $ORCL 20251128 235.0 CALL$  ($1.28)
  Net Cost: $4.82, Max Profit: $15 (if price ≥235 at expiry)
  Logic: Bets on rebound toward $235 resistance; hedges against time decay and IV crush.

Risk Note: If earnings or sentiment worsen, set stop at stock below $210 or IV below 50%.