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Amazing reversal! A sentence from the No. 3 Fed figure ignites the probability of interest rate cuts, U.S. stocks soar, Dow Jones Industrial Average soars more than 700 points

FX168财经报社讯纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周五释放新的政策信号，称在12月的政策会议上，他可能支持进一步降息。这一表态迅速推动市场对再次降息的押注大幅升温，美股趁势强势反弹。尽管他对未来政策持开放态度，但威廉姆斯警告称，近期关税上调正暂时阻碍通胀回落至美联储2%的目标。他估算关税对通胀的贡献在 0.5 至 0.75 个百分点之间。美联储将在 12月9日至10日召开今年最后一次政策会议。

Amazing reversal! A sentence from the No. 3 Fed figure ignites the probability of interest rate cuts, U.S. stocks soar, Dow Jones Industrial Average soars more than 700 points

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":502754222674016,"tweetId":"502754222674016","gmtCreate":1763751339284,"gmtModify":1763751341661,"author":{"id":3581588317757356,"idStr":"3581588317757356","authorId":3581588317757356,"authorIdStr":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Great article, would you like to share it?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Great article, would you like to share it?</body></html>","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/502754222674016","repostId":2585404721,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585404721","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"FX168","home_visible":1,"media_name":"FX168","id":"1059947868","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a80f9d4086d7680bdea6ba04addf782"},"pubTimestamp":1763748327,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2585404721?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-11-22 02:05","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"Amazing reversal! A sentence from the No. 3 Fed figure ignites the probability of interest rate cuts, U.S. stocks soar, Dow Jones Industrial Average soars more than 700 points","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585404721","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社 讯 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周五释放新的政策信号，称在12月的政策会议上，他可能支持进一步降息。这一表态迅速推动市场对再次降息的押注大幅升温，美股趁势强势反弹。尽管他对未来政策持开放态度，但威廉姆斯警告称，近期关税上调正暂时阻碍通胀回落至美联储2%的目标。他估算关税对通胀的贡献在 0.5 至 0.75 个百分点之间。美联储将在 12月9日至10日召开今年最后一次政策会议。","content":"<html><body><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News New York Fed President John<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>(John Williams) released a new policy signal on Friday (November 21), saying that he may support further interest rate cuts at the December policy meeting. This statement quickly pushed the market's bets on another interest rate cut to heat up sharply, and U.S. stocks took advantage of the situation to rebound strongly.Speaking in Santiago, Chile, Williams said that he believed that the current monetary policy was still in a state of \"moderate tightening\", \"but it was more moderate than before\". He added: \"So,I think there is still room to further adjust the Federal Funds rate target range in the near future to bring the policy stance closer to neutral, thus maintaining the balance between achieving the dual goals.”Investors quickly interpreted this as a clear signal from the highest level of the Federal Reserve: the possibility of another interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is rising.While he is open to future policy, Williams warned that recent tariff increases are temporarily hindering inflation from falling back to the Fed's 2% target. He estimates that the contribution of tariffs to inflation is between 0.5 and 0.75 percentage points. However, he still expects inflation to fall back next year.Since Williams is FOMC vice chairman and one of an informal \"troika\" with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, his remarks were taken by markets as an important hint of where policy winds are blowing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a>Krishna Guha, head of global policy at ISI, pointed out in a report to clients that although there is some ambiguity in the expression \"near future\", \"the most direct interpretation is to point to the next meeting\". He added that although this may be Williams' personal view, on core policy issues such as interest rates, the public statements made by the president and vice-chairman of the New York Fed are \"almost always approved by the chairman\" and \"if they are released without Powell's nod Such a signal would be serious professional misconduct.\"Williams' voice about interest rates is particularly sensitive at this time. The FOMC, which has always been known for its \"consensus-driven\" but is often criticized for lacking diversity of thinking, now has obvious internal differences.One group of officials believe that the current policy still inhibits economic growth and still needs to be adjusted; The other faction is worried about inflation and insists that there is no need for further easing in the context of steady economic growth and continuous interest rate cuts in September and October.While Williams didn't deepen into the long-term interest rate path, at least in the short term,Top Fed leaders appear inclined to support another rate cut。In this context, Williams' dovish stance is particularly interesting. In the past few weeks, the market has been significantly shaken by the debate on whether the artificial intelligence sector is bubbling, rising geopolitical risks and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve policy.<h3>The market reacted quickly: the probability of interest rate cut soared above 70%</h3>On the same day,Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Stephen Miran also delivered a speech saying that if he were the decisive key vote, he would prefer to support a 25 basis point rate cut rather than the 50 basis points he has called for many times before.During his short term on the board of directors, Milan has been more radical, insisting on \"super-sharp interest rate cuts\", which is obviously different from the views of some colleagues who want to keep interest rates unchanged.Affected by Williams and Milan's speeches, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December to more than 70% from 30%-40% on Thursday.According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently see a 73% chance of a December rate cut.U.S. stocks rebounded strongly on Friday after Williams hinted that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 709 points, or 1.6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>The index rose 1.3%; The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.<div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747862214\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)\"We think interest rates should really be cut,\" Jay Hatfield, founder and CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said in an interview with CNBC. \"The key depends on the next employment report. If the data is significantly weak, it will really convince the market to support a rate cut.\"On the previous trading day, Wall Street experienced a sharp reversal. The Dow was once on Thursday due to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>The strong third-quarter financial report rose by more than 700 points, but then the gains quickly retreated. All three major indexes closed sharply. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve might stay on hold in December.Even if they rebound on Friday, the three major stock indexes will still record significant losses this week. The S&P 500 and Dow both fell about 2% this week, while the Nasdaq fell about 3% cumulatively.Talking about recent market pressures, Hatfield said that this is more like a \"common post-earnings season valuation correction\" and pointed out that the \"bubble part of the market is suffering a tragic decline.\"Cryptocurrencies also suffered a significant impact. Bitcoin fell about 2% on Friday, and its decline extended to more than 10% during the week, falling to its lowest level since April, reflecting a significant cooling in market risk appetite.<div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747902621\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)\"The only question is, where will the market bottom out?\" Hatfield said.Industry insiders generally believe that Williams' voice \"prevented another possible round of selling in time\". Driven by the strength of most sectors outside technology stocks, market risk sentiment has improved significantly.Guha of Evercore ISI pointed out: \"Before Williams' speech, several Fed officials had expressed reservations about the December rate cut, but they all deliberately avoided making a clear negative. Perhaps they realized that this tug of war about the December rate cut is evolving into a test of the Fed's governance ability, so it needs to leave room for Powell to make decisions.\"<h3>Strong employment data makes policy path more confusing</h3>The comments come as markets are still digesting the September jobs report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. Data shows new jobs created in September119,000 people, much higher than economists expected51,000 people, reversing the weak performance after the downward revision in August.Recently, the volatility of employment data has intensified: employment was negative in June, rebounded in July, declined again in August, and rebounded significantly in September. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to4.4%。 Some analysts believe that this is due to more workers returning to the job market.Milan believes that this jobs report should push hesitant officials to favor interest rate cuts. He pointed out that the slight increase in unemployment rate and the increase in permanent layoffs showed that tightening policies had put pressure on the labor market, and that \"there is no need to continue to maintain such a tight policy stance\" at a time when the inflation outlook improved.<h3>Divided opinions: Fed presidents in some regions prefer to stay on hold</h3>Despite Williams' dovish signal, not all officials agreed to cut interest rates again.Boston Fed President Susan Collins--Voting rights in December-IndicatesShe is \"more inclined to keep the policy unchanged\"。 She pointed out that economic demand is still resilient, which may push enterprises to pass on tariff costs to consumers; She heard more and more concerns about inflation from the survey respondents; The Fed currently needs to maintain \"Slightly tightened\"Policy stance.\"Maintaining a slightly tighter policy helps ensure that inflation continues to decline. Of course there will be further normalization ahead, but it must be done carefully and gradually,\" she told CNBC.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reiterated that she would struggle to support another rate cut in December unless there was a significant decline in inflation or a deterioration in the job market amid two rate cuts already implemented.Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also publicly expressed her attitude for the first time, saying she is looking at the December meeting in a \"cautious\" way.She believes the two rate cuts in the autumn are \"appropriate\", but \"each one raises the bar for the next one\".At the same time,Jefferson, a member of the \"trio\" and vice chairman, recently said that the downside risk of employment is increasing compared with rising inflation. He is open to cutting interest rates, but emphasizes that policies should be \"advanced slowly.\"The Federal Reserve will hold its last policy meeting of the year on December 9-10.As internal differences of opinion intensifie, employment data repeat, inflation is disturbed by tariffs, and market volatility rises, the Fed's balance between inflation and growth will become more subtle. Whether December will usher in the third interest rate cut this year will become the focus of global market attention.</div></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazing reversal! A sentence from the No. 3 Fed figure ignites the probability of interest rate cuts, U.S. stocks soar, Dow Jones Industrial Average soars more than 700 points</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazing reversal! A sentence from the No. 3 Fed figure ignites the probability of interest rate cuts, U.S. stocks soar, Dow Jones Industrial Average soars more than 700 points\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059947868\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a80f9d4086d7680bdea6ba04addf782);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nFX168 \n2025-11-22 02:05\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News New York Fed President John<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>(John Williams) released a new policy signal on Friday (November 21), saying that he may support further interest rate cuts at the December policy meeting. This statement quickly pushed the market's bets on another interest rate cut to heat up sharply, and U.S. stocks took advantage of the situation to rebound strongly.Speaking in Santiago, Chile, Williams said that he believed that the current monetary policy was still in a state of \"moderate tightening\", \"but it was more moderate than before\". He added: \"So,I think there is still room to further adjust the Federal Funds rate target range in the near future to bring the policy stance closer to neutral, thus maintaining the balance between achieving the dual goals.”Investors quickly interpreted this as a clear signal from the highest level of the Federal Reserve: the possibility of another interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is rising.While he is open to future policy, Williams warned that recent tariff increases are temporarily hindering inflation from falling back to the Fed's 2% target. He estimates that the contribution of tariffs to inflation is between 0.5 and 0.75 percentage points. However, he still expects inflation to fall back next year.Since Williams is FOMC vice chairman and one of an informal \"troika\" with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, his remarks were taken by markets as an important hint of where policy winds are blowing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a>Krishna Guha, head of global policy at ISI, pointed out in a report to clients that although there is some ambiguity in the expression \"near future\", \"the most direct interpretation is to point to the next meeting\". He added that although this may be Williams' personal view, on core policy issues such as interest rates, the public statements made by the president and vice-chairman of the New York Fed are \"almost always approved by the chairman\" and \"if they are released without Powell's nod Such a signal would be serious professional misconduct.\"Williams' voice about interest rates is particularly sensitive at this time. The FOMC, which has always been known for its \"consensus-driven\" but is often criticized for lacking diversity of thinking, now has obvious internal differences.One group of officials believe that the current policy still inhibits economic growth and still needs to be adjusted; The other faction is worried about inflation and insists that there is no need for further easing in the context of steady economic growth and continuous interest rate cuts in September and October.While Williams didn't deepen into the long-term interest rate path, at least in the short term,Top Fed leaders appear inclined to support another rate cut。In this context, Williams' dovish stance is particularly interesting. In the past few weeks, the market has been significantly shaken by the debate on whether the artificial intelligence sector is bubbling, rising geopolitical risks and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve policy.<h3>The market reacted quickly: the probability of interest rate cut soared above 70%</h3>On the same day,Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Stephen Miran also delivered a speech saying that if he were the decisive key vote, he would prefer to support a 25 basis point rate cut rather than the 50 basis points he has called for many times before.During his short term on the board of directors, Milan has been more radical, insisting on \"super-sharp interest rate cuts\", which is obviously different from the views of some colleagues who want to keep interest rates unchanged.Affected by Williams and Milan's speeches, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December to more than 70% from 30%-40% on Thursday.According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently see a 73% chance of a December rate cut.U.S. stocks rebounded strongly on Friday after Williams hinted that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 709 points, or 1.6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>The index rose 1.3%; The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.<div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747862214\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)\"We think interest rates should really be cut,\" Jay Hatfield, founder and CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said in an interview with CNBC. \"The key depends on the next employment report. If the data is significantly weak, it will really convince the market to support a rate cut.\"On the previous trading day, Wall Street experienced a sharp reversal. The Dow was once on Thursday due to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>The strong third-quarter financial report rose by more than 700 points, but then the gains quickly retreated. All three major indexes closed sharply. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve might stay on hold in December.Even if they rebound on Friday, the three major stock indexes will still record significant losses this week. The S&P 500 and Dow both fell about 2% this week, while the Nasdaq fell about 3% cumulatively.Talking about recent market pressures, Hatfield said that this is more like a \"common post-earnings season valuation correction\" and pointed out that the \"bubble part of the market is suffering a tragic decline.\"Cryptocurrencies also suffered a significant impact. Bitcoin fell about 2% on Friday, and its decline extended to more than 10% during the week, falling to its lowest level since April, reflecting a significant cooling in market risk appetite.<div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747902621\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)\"The only question is, where will the market bottom out?\" Hatfield said.Industry insiders generally believe that Williams' voice \"prevented another possible round of selling in time\". Driven by the strength of most sectors outside technology stocks, market risk sentiment has improved significantly.Guha of Evercore ISI pointed out: \"Before Williams' speech, several Fed officials had expressed reservations about the December rate cut, but they all deliberately avoided making a clear negative. Perhaps they realized that this tug of war about the December rate cut is evolving into a test of the Fed's governance ability, so it needs to leave room for Powell to make decisions.\"<h3>Strong employment data makes policy path more confusing</h3>The comments come as markets are still digesting the September jobs report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. Data shows new jobs created in September119,000 people, much higher than economists expected51,000 people, reversing the weak performance after the downward revision in August.Recently, the volatility of employment data has intensified: employment was negative in June, rebounded in July, declined again in August, and rebounded significantly in September. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to4.4%。 Some analysts believe that this is due to more workers returning to the job market.Milan believes that this jobs report should push hesitant officials to favor interest rate cuts. He pointed out that the slight increase in unemployment rate and the increase in permanent layoffs showed that tightening policies had put pressure on the labor market, and that \"there is no need to continue to maintain such a tight policy stance\" at a time when the inflation outlook improved.<h3>Divided opinions: Fed presidents in some regions prefer to stay on hold</h3>Despite Williams' dovish signal, not all officials agreed to cut interest rates again.Boston Fed President Susan Collins--Voting rights in December-IndicatesShe is \"more inclined to keep the policy unchanged\"。 She pointed out that economic demand is still resilient, which may push enterprises to pass on tariff costs to consumers; She heard more and more concerns about inflation from the survey respondents; The Fed currently needs to maintain \"Slightly tightened\"Policy stance.\"Maintaining a slightly tighter policy helps ensure that inflation continues to decline. Of course there will be further normalization ahead, but it must be done carefully and gradually,\" she told CNBC.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reiterated that she would struggle to support another rate cut in December unless there was a significant decline in inflation or a deterioration in the job market amid two rate cuts already implemented.Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also publicly expressed her attitude for the first time, saying she is looking at the December meeting in a \"cautious\" way.She believes the two rate cuts in the autumn are \"appropriate\", but \"each one raises the bar for the next one\".At the same time,Jefferson, a member of the \"trio\" and vice chairman, recently said that the downside risk of employment is increasing compared with rising inflation. He is open to cutting interest rates, but emphasizes that policies should be \"advanced slowly.\"The Federal Reserve will hold its last policy meeting of the year on December 9-10.As internal differences of opinion intensifie, employment data repeat, inflation is disturbed by tariffs, and market volatility rises, the Fed's balance between inflation and growth will become more subtle. Whether December will usher in the third interest rate cut this year will become the focus of global market attention.</div></body></html>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168news.com/article/美联储降息-968388","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2585404721","content_text":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）周五（11月21日）释放新的政策信号，称在12月的政策会议上，他可能支持进一步降息。这一表态迅速推动市场对再次降息的押注大幅升温，美股趁势强势反弹。\n威廉姆斯在智利圣地亚哥发表讲话时表示，他认为当前货币政策仍处于“温和紧缩”状态，“但较此前有所缓和”。他补充称：“因此，我认为近期仍有空间进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间，使政策立场更接近中性，从而维持实现双重目标之间的平衡。”\n投资者迅速将此解读为美联储最高层传递出的明确信号：12月的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，再度降息的可能性正在上升。\n尽管他对未来政策持开放态度，但威廉姆斯警告称，近期关税上调正暂时阻碍通胀回落至美联储2%的目标。他估算关税对通胀的贡献在 0.5 至 0.75 个百分点之间。不过，他仍预计明年通胀将重新回落。\n由于威廉姆斯是FOMC副主席，同时也是与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）和副主席菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）组成的非正式“领导三人组（troika）”之一，他的言论被市场视为政策风向的重要提示。\nEvercore ISI全球政策主管Krishna Guha在给客户的报告中指出，虽然“近期”这一表述存在一定模糊空间，但“最直接的解读，就是指向下一次会议”。他补充称，尽管这可能是威廉姆斯的个人观点，但在利率等核心政策问题上，纽约联储主席与副主席的公开表态“几乎总是经过主席批准”，“如果未经鲍威尔点头就释放这样的信号，将属于严重的职业失当”。\n威廉姆斯此时关于利率的发声尤其敏感。一直以“共识驱动”著称、却常被批评缺乏思维多样性的FOMC，如今内部出现了明显分歧。\n一派官员认为当前政策仍对经济增长形成抑制，仍需调整；另一派则担忧通胀，坚持在经济增速稳健、且9月与10月已连续降息的背景下，没有必要进一步宽松。\n虽然威廉姆斯没有深入展开长期利率路径，但至少在短期内，美联储高层似乎倾向于支持再次降息。\n在这种背景下，威廉姆斯的鸽派立场格外引人关注。过去几周，市场已因人工智能板块是否泡沫化的争论、地缘政治风险上升及美联储政策不确定性而出现明显震荡。\n市场迅速反应：降息概率飙升至 70% 以上\n同日，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）也发表讲话表示，如果他是决定性的关键一票，他倾向于支持 25 个基点 的降息，而非此前多次呼吁的 50 个基点。米兰在加入董事会的短暂任期内一直态度更为激进，坚持“超大幅降息”，与部分希望维持利率不变的同僚观点产生明显分歧。\n受威廉姆斯和米兰讲话影响，市场预计美联储12月再度降息的概率从周四的 30%-40% 暴涨至 70% 以上。根据CME FedWatch工具，交易员目前认为12月降息的概率达 73%。\n在威廉姆斯暗示美联储今年可能再次降息后，美国股市周五强劲反弹。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨709点，涨幅1.6%；标普500指数上涨1.3%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.1%。\n\n\n\n(道指1小时走势图，来源：FX168)\n“我们认为确实应该降息，”Infrastructure Capital Advisors创始人兼CEO Jay Hatfield在接受CNBC采访时表示，“关键取决于下一份就业报告。如果数据明显疲弱，才会真正说服市场支持降息。”\n此前一个交易日，华尔街经历剧烈反转。道指在周四一度因英伟达强劲的三季度财报大涨700点以上，但随后涨势快速回吐，三大指数收盘均大幅下挫，市场担忧美联储可能在12月按兵不动。\n即便周五反弹，三大股指本周仍将录得显著跌幅。标普500指数、道指本周均下跌约2%，纳斯达克则累计下跌约3%。\n谈及近期市场压力，Hatfield表示，这更像是“常见的财报季后估值回调”，并指出市场中“泡沫部分正遭遇惨烈杀跌”。\n加密货币也受到显著冲击，比特币周五下跌约2%，周内跌幅扩大至逾10%，跌至自4月以来最低水平，反映市场风险偏好明显降温。\n\n\n\n(道指1小时走势图，来源：FX168)\n“唯一的问题是，市场会在什么位置触底？”Hatfield表示。\n业内人士普遍认为，威廉姆斯的发声“及时阻止了可能出现的又一轮抛售”。在科技股外大部分板块走强的带动下，市场风险情绪明显改善。\nEvercore ISI的Guha指出：“在威廉姆斯讲话前，已有数位联储官员对12月降息表达保留意见，但他们都刻意避免做出明确否定。或许他们意识到，这场关于12月降息的拉锯，正演变为对美联储治理能力的考验，因此需要为鲍威尔留出决策空间。”\n强劲就业数据令政策路径更扑朔迷离\n这些评论发布之际，市场仍在消化因政府停摆导致推迟发布的9月就业报告。数据显示，9月新增就业 11.9 万人，远高于经济学家预期的 5.1 万人，扭转了8月向下修正后的疲弱表现。\n近期就业数据波动加剧：6月就业为负，7月回升，8月再度下滑，9月又明显反弹。同时，失业率从4.3%上升至 4.4%。部分分析认为，这是更多劳动者重返就业市场所致。\n米兰认为，这份就业报告应推动犹豫不决的官员倾向支持降息。他指出，失业率小幅上升及永久性裁员增加，均显示紧缩政策已对劳动力市场造成压力，而在通胀前景改善之际，“没有必要继续保持如此紧的政策立场”。\n意见分化：部分地区联储主席更倾向按兵不动\n尽管威廉姆斯释放鸽派信号，但并非所有官员都同意再度降息。\n波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）——12月具投票权——表示她“更倾向于维持政策不变”。她指出：经济需求仍具韧性，可能推动企业把关税成本转嫁给消费者；她从调研对象中听到越来越多对通胀的担忧；美联储当前需要维持“略微紧缩”的政策立场。\n她对 CNBC 表示：“保持略微紧缩的政策有助于确保通胀持续下降。未来当然会进一步正常化，但必须谨慎、循序渐进。”\n达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根（Lorie Logan）重申，在已实施两次降息的背景下，除非出现显著的通胀下降或就业市场恶化，否则她难以支持12月再次降息。\n费城联储主席安娜·保尔森（Anna Paulson）也首次公开表达态度，称她正以“谨慎”的方式看待12月会议。她认为秋季的两次降息是“合适的”，但“每一次降息都抬高了下一次降息的门槛”。\n与此同时，“三人组”成员之一、副主席杰斐逊（Jefferson）近日表示，与通胀上行相比，就业下行风险正在增加，他对降息持开放态度，但强调政策应“缓慢推进”。\n美联储将在 12月9日至10日召开今年最后一次政策会议。随着内部意见分歧加剧、就业数据反复、通胀受关税扰动、市场波动升温，美联储在通胀与增长之间的平衡将变得更加微妙。12月是否会迎来今年第三次降息，将成为全球市场关注的焦点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MESmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"YMmain":1.5,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,".DJI":1.5,"DJX":0.6,"MYMmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPY":1.5,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":35,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}