Lei Jun just did what every retail investor daydreams about: he bought the dip—publicly, decisively, and with eight figures of conviction.
On Nov. 24, Xiaomi’s founder and CEO snapped up 2.6 million Xiaomi shares on the open market at an average HK$38.58, spending a little over HK$100 million and nudging his stake to 23.26%. The disclosure hit HKEX the same day. Shares popped about 4% on the headlines, with Xiaomi trading around the HK$40 handle afterward.
This wasn’t a solo act. Just days earlier, Xiaomi executed two consecutive buyback sessions on Nov. 20–21, repurchasing 21.5 million shares for more than HK$800 million. The company has kept buying since, logging additional repurchases this week.
Fundamentally, Xiaomi’s 2025 story has been about two engines running hot: premium smartphones and its breakout EV business. In Q3, net profit jumped 81% year over year to 11.3 billion yuan as EV revenue rose again, even if total sales landed slightly below estimates.
Insider buying and buybacks speak the same language: management thinks the market’s too pessimistic. Lei’s prints at ~HK$38.6 telegraph where he sees value; corporate repurchases add a bid underneath the stock and signal confidence in future cash generation. When those two arrive together—insider buys plus a company bid—traders tend to lean in.
There’s also a narrative reset underway. After a wild spring built on EV excitement (remember the big share sale in March to fund expansion), Xiaomi’s stock cooled through the summer and fall. The result: sentiment slipped, even as the business kept scaling production and margin. Lei’s purchase is a timely reminder that execution, not headlines, ultimately drives the tape.
Let’s talk about the neon sign in the room: “40.” Round numbers become mile-markers in markets, and HK$40 now carries fresh meaning. Lei bought just below it; the company is buying around it; and price is hovering near it. If bulls can hold that zone, the tape will read it as support. Lose it decisively, and skeptics will argue Lei merely slowed—not stopped—the slide.
What to watch next:
• Follow-through on buybacks. Xiaomi has been active this month; continued repurchases on weak days would fortify the floor. HKEX daily disclosures will tell the tale.
• EV momentum vs. capital needs. Q3 showed strong EV revenue progress, but expansion remains cash-hungry. Management already raised equity in March to keep the flywheel turning; clarity on 2026 capex and SU7 output targets will shape valuation ranges.
• Margin mix. Premium phones, IoT, and EVs have different profitability profiles. Watch whether higher-end devices (and software/services) can offset the investment drag from autos in 2026 guidance.
So, is 40 the bottom or the top? In the near term, it’s the market’s truth-serum level. Insiders just drew a line in the sand around it; now price has to validate the vote of confidence with steadier higher lows and improving breadth. Big picture, Xiaomi’s fate still rests on converting EV buzz and premium hardware into durable, high-margin cash flow. If that arc keeps bending up, Lei’s dip buy will look less like a headline and more like a timestamp on a turning point.
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