To The Moon

🚀 Intel Up 100% YTD — But Is This Just the Beginning of a Multi-Year Comeback? Or the Peak Before Reality Hits?

Intel $Intel(INTC)$  has become one of 2025’s biggest comeback stories — a stock many had written off as a dinosaur, now roaring back over 100% year-to-date and jumping another 8% on reports it may supply chips to Apple.

But beneath the surface hype, something far more important is happening:

👉 Intel is fighting for its life — and may actually be winning.

👉 But the risks are bigger than most investors realise.

Let’s break down what’s really driving this rally — and whether it still has room to run.

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🔧 1️⃣ The Return of Intel’s Engineering Mojo — Finally More Than Talk?

For nearly a decade, Intel lagged badly behind TSMC. Now the company is attempting one of the most aggressive comebacks the semiconductor world has ever seen:

“5 nodes in 4 years” — a roadmap Wall Street didn’t believe.

But so far:

✔ Intel 20A is progressing,

✔ Intel 18A is attracting early customers,

✔ Packaging tech (Foveros) is winning attention in AI workloads,

✔ And internal yields — formerly a disaster — are trending up.

This is the most important shift that investors are underestimating:

➡ If Intel truly closes the manufacturing gap, its entire valuation resets.

Not gradually — violently.

But let’s be honest:

⚠ A single slip could break trust again.

Intel’s credibility is still on probation.

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🏭 2️⃣ The Foundry Gamble: From “Hopeless” to “National Champion”

Intel Foundry Services (IFS) might be the real prize here.

Not because the business is mature — it isn’t — but because the world suddenly needs what Intel offers:

✔ U.S. domestic chip manufacturing

✔ Reducing dependence on Taiwan

✔ Secure production for AI, defense, aerospace

✔ CHIPS Act money raining from the sky

Intel has gone from

“old PC company” → “geopolitical necessity.”

This is why IFS is now treated as a strategic asset, not a commercial one.

But here’s the truth retail often misses:

⚠ IFS still loses money.

⚠ Scaling a foundry is brutally hard.

⚠ Without mega-customers (Apple, Qualcomm, AWS), profitability is far away.

Which is exactly why the Apple-supply rumour shook the market — even a partial Apple order would flip Intel’s image from “potential” to “validated.”

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🤖 3️⃣ AI, HPC & the New Intel Narrative

Intel is quietly carving out a lane in AI infrastructure:

• Gaudi accelerators (far cheaper than Nvidia chips)

• Strong positioning in enterprise AI

• Partnerships in cloud + edge inference

• Packaging tech that enables chiplets for AI systems

No — Intel won’t beat Nvidia.

That’s not the story.

The story is this:

➡ AI demand is so massive that “second place” is still a trillion-dollar lane.

If Intel captures even 5–10% of the AI accelerator market, the stock is still mispriced today.

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📈 4️⃣ The Valuation Question: Too Much, Too Fast? Or Still Cheap?

Intel trading at $40 after a 100% YTD move sounds expensive.

But historically?

Intel traded at $60–$70 when it was shrinking.

Now it’s transforming and trading at… $40.

Strange? Yes.

Telling? Absolutely.

But let’s avoid hopium:

🚨 What’s already priced in?

A U.S. manufacturing comeback

AI-driven upside

Foundry expansion

Stabilizing PC demand

A multi-year margin recovery

🚨 What’s NOT priced in?

A megadeal with Apple

IFS profitability

Intel surpassing Samsung or catching TSMC

Becoming the “Western AI chip hub”

In other words:

➡ This rally isn’t just sentiment. It’s the market repricing Intel’s strategic importance.

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🎯 So… Add, Trim, or Hold?

If you’re long-term and believe Intel’s recovery is real:

This is not the top — it’s the first inning.

If you only rode the momentum and don’t trust Intel’s execution:

Protecting gains on a 100% run isn’t wrong.

But the deeper analysis suggests something bigger:

Intel is not just a turnaround play anymore —

it’s becoming a geopolitical monopoly in the making.

And markets reward strategic monopolies.

Aggressively.

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❓ Your Move

Do you see Intel as:

🟢 A multi-year national-champion growth story?

🔴 A hype-driven rebound that will fail at the next stumble?

⚪ Or a trading play, not an investment?