To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ 

The signals are clear, the risk is mispriced, and I’m positioned early into the catalysts that decide the next move.

Confidence remains high, fragility remains hidden, and I see that as the exact environment where the best trades emerge. The surface looks calm. Underneath, the market is already shifting.

The S&P 500 has pushed into a 4 day win streak and Nasdaq delivered both daily and weekly gains even as BTC volatility tried to derail risk appetite. VIX settling at 15.41 shows comfort rather than fear. But selective strength always raises questions worth answering.

NYSE and Nasdaq both printed slightly more decliners than advancers on Friday, yet real demand did not back off. New highs surged: 402 on the NYSE, 1,019 on the Nasdaq. New lows remained minimal. Buyers absorbed supply into weakness and stepped up into strength. That is not rotation away from risk, that is positioning ahead of catalysts.

Accumulation always arrives before the headlines catch up.

The core of the story sits in the labour market. Hiring has slowed sharply, but large scale layoffs still have not arrived. That is why unemployment has been rising at the slowest pace in modern history. The US labour market is still supply constrained. Job openings exceed the number of workers actively looking, and temporarily laid off workers are not counted because they are not searching. That gap is what keeps wage pressure sticky and inflation sticky. Powell cannot pivot aggressively while labour refuses to soften.

Wednesday’s rate decision is not about December. It is about the forward path into 2026. Any hint of a tighter stance forces an immediate repricing of tech multiples. I am positioning before Powell talks, not after.

Options flow confirms where conviction sits.

Friday’s options tape showed traders leaning into upside volatility: $NFLX, $SOFI and $WBD all printed 3 to 4 times normal volume. $CRM, $UNH, $MRNA and $EWZ saw bullish call activity. Outlier aggression in $SATS at 13 times, $ADI at 10 times and $DBRG at 6 times average activity. This is capital targeting opportunity while spreads remain tight and IV remains suppressed. That type of flow does not show up in bear markets.

🎢 Volatility Watch This Week!

$BE & $TTD lighting up options boards ahead of a potentially choppy week.

Most overbought: $MAGH, $SND, $HAE

Most oversold: $BRR, $TWNP, $NTNX

Robotics names $IRBT & $SERV in focus after fresh WH signals.

Earnings shape sector leadership from here.

Monday: $TOL tells us whether housing margins remain resilient. If $103 holds, $110 becomes a realistic next level.

Tuesday is consumer led with $AZO, $CASY, $CPB and volatility magnets $GME and $AVAV.

Wednesday night: $ORCL near $129 support gives the institutional read on cloud momentum. A strong print unlocks $140 plus. $ADBE trades rich IV. I use spreads to own probability while sidestepping theta.

Thursday: The test for rotation. If $COST signals shareholder enhancements, $CENT historically reacts 88%. I am ahead of the second order move.

Friday: Funds reposition as macro dust settles.

Alpha lives where expectations adjust, not where they are confirmed.

Institutional Alpha Micro Section: Supply of Risk, Supply of Labour, Supply of Liquidity

Cross asset correlations are tightening. Bonds signal yield stability. Credit spreads hold firm. Dealers lean short gamma in key Vanna zones around SPX support. That means rapid expansion when flows hit. Dark pool activity has been increasing in rotation targets, just as implied volatility sits roughly 20% below historical norms. Liquidity remains in play with RRP balances still above 1.2 trillion, but draining steadily.

Forward tech valuations at 28 times imply growth that labour scarcity might limit. Even if EPS climbs 14%, historical precedence shows price appreciation lagging at just 4 to 5%. That disconnect creates risk and reward simultaneously.

This is where most traders get it wrong. They look backward at printed financials. I look forward at the constraints on scaling those financial outcomes. Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian says investors are “buying the dream” on AI as tech trades at peak multiples. EPS may jump, but markets may not. Her 2026 call: valuation reset, rotate into staples and discount retail as lower income consumers rebound.

AVGO positioning looks aggressive into earnings this Thursday

Institutional money loaded $2.43M in $AVGO 420C for next week, with 4,459 contracts traded and OI at 1,585. Net premium was $7.97M on 41,221 total options volume. That is not hedging. This is conviction and they are sizing for a volatility event.

The chart confirms accumulation. Price reclaimed $390 and sits in the upper Keltner channel on the 4H with expanding Bollinger bandwidth. That creates short term upside, but also signals that expectations are elevated. If they beat and do not raise guidance, the stock can fade from perfection pricing.

I am focused on risk defined execution. Implied volatility is juiced and IV rank is elevated, so I am paid to take the other side of fear rather than chase stretched deltas.

Support: $350 at the high volume node

Resistance: $405 then ATH continuation levels

Signal: Bearish RSI divergence forming on the daily timeframe

Catalyst: AI revenue breakout + VMware integration synergy

Last quarter AVGO delivered 63% YoY growth in AI revenue and printed $15.95B total revenue. Expectations now sit around $17.5B. The bar has risen and the guide matters more than the print.

The trade I am running

I prefer premium capture using OTM cash secured puts at the $350 support. If IV rank stays >50% I allow theta to pay me while the story plays out. I can always wheel into shares at a discounted cost basis if volatility forces a retest of demand.

This is a pure expectations versus delivery moment.

Macro catalysts hit in clusters.

Tuesday previews labour demand and crude supply tension.

Wednesday’s Fed decision and projections direct the roadmap for 2026.

Thursday refreshes inflation mechanics via PPI and jobless claims.

Soft September core PCE and improving consumer sentiment allowed equities to levitate into this moment. Powell decides whether that licence extends.

Technical structure informs execution.

SPX support: 5350

Resistance: 5450

We are coiled. Compression cannot last. Powell fires the starter pistol. $SPX trend still bullish: above key MAs, w/ option flows & rising short interest offering support.

Near-term: watch 6,890-6,900 zone & the 7,000 magnet.

Risks? Rate-cut volatility, fully-invested fund positioning, & hedging flows near big round numbers ⚠️

Nasdaq’s leadership needs broader confirmation. Without breadth, rotation will not stick. BTC’s failure to break risk appetite speaks to underlying conviction rather than speculation.

Execution is my edge.

I position where my read on structure gives me advantage. I trim when emotion replaces logic. I exploit IV when markets pretend volatility is finished.

The edge is not in predicting the move. It is in being ready before others believe it.

This is not a guessing week. This is a pricing week. Markets are reconciling the ambition of AI with the constraints of labour. One pulls earnings forward. One slows them down. The opportunity lives directly between the two.

I am not here to predict the future. I am here to price it before the market does.

When the market finally understands the story, I will already be managing the profits.

Watchlist: $ORCL, $ADBE, $COST, $TTD, $AVGO, $SOFI, $WBD, $CRM, $UNH, $IRBT, $CENT

IPO Radar This Week:

The debut slate includes Cardinal Infrastructure $CDNL, Lumexa Imaging $LMRI, & Wealthfront $WLTH.

Lock-up expirations hit Voyager Tech $VOYG and AIRO Group $AIRO, so BOTH could see added volatility as restricted shares free up.

Wedbush just published its latest view on who loses in the AI transition.

Their “AI losers” list names: $INTC, $QCOM, $HPQ, $SYNA, $QRVO, $CRUS, $ADBE, $DOCU, $WDAY, $PINS, $TTD, $UBER, $LYFT and $CART.

AI infrastructure demand is driving memory prices sharply higher. DRAM is up 30% and NAND is up 20% which creates real margin compression across PC and handset manufacturers. $TSLA accelerating autonomous rollout threatens the asset light economics that $UBER and $LYFT depend on. Agentic AI pushes advertising dollars toward ecosystems with conversion plumbing like $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL and $APP. Legacy SaaS models, including $ADBE, $DOCU, $WDAY and $NICE, face a new wave of AI native competitors pricing disruption directly into their products.

I am watching closely how capital reallocates as AI adoption rewrites competitive moats and forces the market to decide who truly monetises intelligence at scale.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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