To The Moon

$Netflix(NFLX)$ $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ $Paramount Skydance Corp(PSKY)$ 📉 The Political Pendulum Has Turned Against $NFLX I have traded antitrust-choked deals for decades. Some die quietly in boardrooms. Some die on live microphones. This one just stepped into the spotlight. Trump publicly called out $NFLX’s $72B all-cash bid as a market share problem with 35%+ combined US streaming dominance. He also made it clear he will be involved in the decision. This is especially notable after Trump recently praised $NFLX co-CEO Ted Sarandos during an Oval Office visit. Meanwhile, son-in-law Jared Kushner is backing $PSKY’s rival bid, shifting political capital away from $NFLX and toward a Trump-aligned alternative. 📊 Bloomberg pro-forma revenue charts show the combined entity overtaking every global streaming competitor, surpassing YouTube and Disney by a wide margin. Regulators do not ignore dominance that visible. Rosenblatt immediately downgraded $NFLX citing protracted regulatory clearance. This shifted the merger from valuation play into election-driven power struggle. Kushner backing Paramount’s rival bid only tightens the political squeeze around Netflix. This has gone from a valuation play to a political knife fight. 📊 Charts Confirm Money Has Fled the $NFLX Side Latest session: • Current 95.92 • Open 99.79 → high 99.82 → low 95.30 • –4.31% intraday • 48.95M+ shares traded, high-conviction distribution • Volume flowed on every breakdown • $100 failed as structural and psychological support Technical implications: • Full 4H Bollinger mid-break → bear expansion • All EMAs now bearishly stacked and accelerating lower • If this volume persists, next target $92 Professionals have already moved. Retail is still arguing about content. 🎥📈 $WBD Is Now a Takeover-Momentum Chart Recent price action: • High 28.16, low 25.41 • 198M+ volume spike showing aggressive accumulation • 90-day MA reclaimed • Bullish Keltner expansion, rising EMAs $PSKY’s hostile bid at $30 per share equates to ~$77.9B total value, outpacing $NFLX’s $27.75 per share collar. Former resistance is now a launch platform. 🏛️ Regulators Have More Ammunition Than $NFLX Can Afford Market share maths: • $NFLX 25% US subs • $WBD’s HBO Max 8 to 10% • Combined 35%+ dominance This activates Sherman Act presumption of harm. Trump’s vow to get personally involved turns a review into a blockade threat. Forced asset sales destroy synergies. A full block kneecaps $NFLX’s premium multiple. This pivot was not in Sarandos’ briefing package. 🎯💣 $PSKY Has Shifted Negotiating Dynamics Deal structure: • $30 all-cash tender for $WBD • ~$77.9B financing required • $PSKY debt ~$15B • FCF ~$0.3B • $18B more cash to $WBD holders than $NFLX’s bid • Kushner ties shift political leverage The balance sheet maths says risk. The psychological maths says $NFLX does not control the room any longer. 💰📈 Fundamentals Now Favour $WBD Even If $NFLX Walks $NFLX margins: • 10-year expansion into mid-20% • World-class monetisation • Now eroding under deal drag $WBD improvements: • >16% debt reduction since Dec 2022 • Quarterly cash build • Stabilising core business even without takeover pricing • Hostile bid raises the floor Outcomes for $WBD: Blocked deal → wins $NFLX deal clears → wins more $PSKY prevails → wins biggest 🧠🔥 This Trade Has the Highest Probability on My Board I am short $NFLX and long $WBD. Regulatory haze caps $NFLX upside. Multiple bids propel $WBD. Execution plan: • Short $NFLX • Long $WBD • Risk sizing 2 to 3% max • $NFLX risk marker 100 • $WBD risk marker 25 • Catalyst timing into early Q1, aligned with Trump’s review timeline Better opportunities appear when markets price perfection. Then politics destroys the storyline. 🧨 Polymarket Odds Have Collapsed Real-money probabilities now price in failure: • 16% chance Netflix closes the deal by end-2026 • −43% collapse in deal odds since Trump’s comments • Pricing mirrors the AT&T-Time Warner delay spiral, where billions were wiped out on uncertainty alone Arbitrage desks are now treating this as a low-probability closure with high political risk premium. That accelerates the bear pressure on $NFLX. 🏁💼 Conclusion: One Side Pays If This Fails. One Side Gets Paid Either Way $NFLX must defend valuation. $WBD does not. I am positioned before the crowd connects the dots. My conviction has rarely been this strong. 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss. Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @TigerPicks @TigerWire @TigerStars @TigerObserver