To The Moon

$BABA-W(09988)$

Key News:
On Dec 10, Alibaba announced the formation of the "Qianwen Consumer Business Group," led by Group VP Jia Wu. This group merges the former Smart Information and Smart Interconnection business units and includes the Qianwen App, Quark, AI hardware, UC Browser, Shuqi, etc. Its primary goal is to build Qianwen into the super App and primary user gateway for the AI era.

Options Analysis:

• Current Implied Volatility (IV) is low, indicating market expectations for relative price stability without sharp moves. Market sentiment is slightly positive.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected narrow range: HKD 147–155.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may widen slightly to HKD 145–158.

• Key Support: HKD 150. This is the current price equilibrium point and a Put OI concentration, forming crucial support.

• Key Resistance: HKD 155. This level has the highest Call OI, acting as immediate overhead resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Call Spread
Sell $ALB.HK 20251219 160.00 CALL$  + Buy $ALB.HK 20251219 165.00 CALL$ 
Rationale: Based on strong resistance at HKD 155 and low IV, suitable for premium collection.
Stop: Close if stock breaks above HKD 166 or gains >3% in a single day.

$TENCENT(00700)$

Key News:
Tencent Holdings (00700) repurchased 1.06 million shares on Dec 10 for HKD 636 million, at prices between HKD 595.5 and 603.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is at historical lows, suggesting market expects steady price action without major swings. Call trading is active; sentiment leans optimistic.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected mild range: HKD 590–620.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand to HKD 580–630.

• Key Support: HKD 590 (recent price low, technical support).

• Key Resistance: HKD 620 (significant Call OI concentration, key overhead cap).

Strategy Idea: Sell Call Spread
Sell $TCH.HK 20251219 610.00 CALL$  + Buy $TCH.HK 20251219 620.00 CALL$ 
Rationale: Capitalizes on HKD 620 resistance and high IV environment to collect premium; estimated win rate ~74% (Delta-based).
Stop: Close if stock breaks above HKD 625.
Note: Strategy assumes range-bound action; monitor southbound fund flows and broader market sentiment closely.

$XIAOMI-W(01810)$

Key News:
Xiaomi's China division recently initiated a series of personnel adjustments involving core operational roles in smartphones, automobiles, and home appliances.
Xiaomi Auto sales fell 4.94% MoM in November to 46,249 units; market is focused on its business transition progress.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is extremely low, indicating broad market expectation for stable prices in the near term without sharp volatility.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected narrow range: HKD 40–43.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may widen slightly to HKD 39–44.

• Key Support: HKD 40 (relative Put OI concentration, key near-term support).

• Key Resistance: HKD 43 (major resistance this week, formed by dense Put OI, indicating strong overhead pressure).

Strategy Idea: Sell Call Spread
Sell $MIU.HK 20251219 44.00 CALL$  + Buy $MIU.HK 20251219 45.00 CALL$ 
Rationale: Low IV; high probability of range-bound trading between HKD 41–43; strong resistance at HKD 44. Net credit: HKD 0.14; max profit HKD 0.14; max loss HKD 0.86.
Stop: Close immediately if stock breaks above HKD 44.5.

$JD-SW(09618)$

Key News:
JD Industrial (HKG:7618) raised HKD 2.83 billion net in its Hong Kong IPO, with an issue price of HKD 14.10 per share.
JD.com confirmed the acquisition of a 50% stake in the Central China Construction Bank Building for nearly HKD 3.5 billion, continuing investment in Hong Kong supply chain infrastructure.
Arete downgraded JD.com from Buy to Neutral, cutting the target price from $41 to $32, weighing on the stock.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is extremely low, suggesting market expects very stable price action. Option volume indicates slightly cautious sentiment.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected narrow range: HKD 112–118.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may widen slightly to HKD 110–120.

• Key Support: HKD 112–112.5 (heavy Put OI concentration, forming strong "floor" support).

• Key Resistance: HKD 117.5–118 (immediate overhead resistance this week).

Strategy Idea: Sell Call Spread
Sell $JDC.HK 20251219 117.50 CALL$  + Buy $JDC.HK 20251219 120.00 CALL$ 
Rationale: Stock likely to churn in the HKD 114–117 range with limited upside. Strategy achieves max profit if price stays below HKD 117.5; probability is relatively high.
Stop: Close if stock breaks above HKD 120; max loss HKD 2.5.

$SMIC(00981)$

Key News:
SMIC (00981) fell 4.11% yesterday to HKD 68.85, with turnover reaching HKD 4.608 billion, indicating significant capital flow and positioning. Huatai Securities International gave a Hold rating, noting overall Q3 2025 performance improvement but margin pressure. The semiconductor sector has seen divergent performance recently, with SMIC experiencing higher volatility as an industry leader.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is extremely low, meaning the market does not expect major price swings. Call trading is more active, suggesting positive sentiment.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected mild range: HKD 65–72.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand to HKD 63–75.

• Key Support: HKD 65–68. HKD 65 is an options support level; HKD 68 is an important technical support.

• Key Resistance: HKD 72–75. HKD 72 is this week's resistance; stronger resistance lies in the HKD 75–77 technical zone.

Strategy Idea: Sell Call Spread
Sell $SMC.HK 20251219 75.00 CALL$  + Buy $SMC.HK 20251219 77.50 CALL$ 
Rationale: Low IV; stock oscillating near support with strong resistance at HKD 75. Strategy offers a high win rate; max profit HKD 50/contract, max loss HKD 200/contract.
Stop: Close if stock breaks above HKD 77.5, limiting max loss to HKD 200.

$MEITUAN-W(03690)$

Key News:
Recent Meituan developments: Southbound funds continue to accumulate, adding 6.1714 million shares on Dec 9; net increase of 21.51 million shares over the past 5 days, bringing total ownership to 19.83%.
Q3 revenue was RMB 95.488 billion (+2% YoY), but adjusted net loss was RMB 16.01 billion.
International business Keeta has expanded to 20 cities in Saudi Arabia; instant retail daily orders reached 150 million.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is extremely low, indicating market expects very steady price action. Call trading is more active; sentiment leans optimistic.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected narrow range: HKD 97–103.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may widen slightly to HKD 95–105.

• Key Support: HKD 97.5 (Put OI concentration, key near-term support).

• Key Resistance: HKD 100–102.5. HKD 100 is the options focal point; HKD 102.5 is a dense Call resistance zone.

Strategy Idea: Sell Call Spread
Sell $MET.HK 20251219 102.50 CALL$  + Buy $MET.HK 20251219 105.00 CALL$ 
Rationale: Leverages bullish sentiment (high Call/Put Ratio) to construct a spread above resistance at HKD 102.5; low IV favors the seller.
Stop: Close if stock breaks above HKD 105.
(Strategy based on Dec 19 expiry options; current price HKD 101.7; aims to profit from time decay within the HKD 102.5–105 range.)