To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ 📅 16Dec25 🇺🇸 | 17Dec25 🇳🇿

📊 My Daily Structure And Technical Read

I’m watching $TSLA trade in the upper $470s to low $480s, with recent highs around $481 as of mid-December 2025. What stands out is relative strength. While broader indices faded off overnight lows, $TSLA absorbed selling pressure, flipped green within the first 20 minutes, and reclaimed the upper range. When I see that behaviour at this altitude, I treat it as real demand, not a reflex bounce.

On my 4H and 30m read, price is holding above the rising EMA stack, with the EMA $13, EMA $21, and EMA $55 aligned positively. Keltner 240 and Bollinger 240 are still showing controlled expansion rather than volatility spikes, and price continues to lean toward the upper bands instead of reverting to the mean. That is trend behaviour with intermittent resets, not late-stage excess.

Momentum conditions reinforce that view. RSI is elevated but disciplined, holding constructive bands rather than flashing exhaustion. The recent pullback read as a momentum reset, not momentum loss. MACD completed a clean reset following the November pullback and is now curling higher again. In $TSLA, that configuration has historically aligned with continuation phases rather than distribution.

Structurally, I’m treating $455 to $470 as a proven acceptance zone, because it has converted prior resistance into a working liquidity shelf. Consolidation is tightening just below the psychological $500 level. This still reads as controlled and coiled price action, increasingly asymmetric to the upside, with $437.5 HVL acting as the volatility anchor.

My Net GEX profile, timestamped 15 Dec 2025 at 15:59 EST, frames the map cleanly. Call resistance sits at $500, HVL is $437.5, put support is anchored near $390, and spot reference was around $475.3. I keep coming back to that HVL because it defines regime. Above it, pullbacks tend to stay orderly. Lose it, and volatility reprices quickly.

🔍 My View On Autonomy, FSD, And Strategic Advantage

I continue to frame Tesla as a software-defined autonomy platform first, with vehicles acting as the distribution layer. The mid-December shift is important because robotaxi testing in Austin has escalated to fully driverless operation, with Model Y vehicles reportedly operating on public streets with no occupants inside. I’m careful with language here because testing is not the same thing as scaled commercial rollout, but empty-vehicle testing is still a decisive step up in operational confidence.

I see this as the Rubicon moment for narrative credibility. It moves the discussion from “trajectory” to “validation”, and it forces the market to price optionality earlier than the financial statements will ever show it.

FSD v14 represents a structural leap in how I think about Tesla’s autonomy stack. It is end-to-end AI, video in and controls out, with no LiDAR, HD maps, or rule-based logic. Independent testing in dense urban environments such as San Francisco has now logged extended zero-intervention drives, which is exactly the kind of trust-building datapoint that shifts sentiment from scepticism to inevitability.

I’m also factoring in Piper Sandler’s view that miles between interventions have expanded from roughly 441 to over 9,200, the largest improvement in four years. Zero-nag improvements matter because reduced friction increases real-world engagement. More engagement means more data density, and that feeds faster model improvement. That compounding loop is the advantage legacy automakers cannot replicate quickly.

I’m also factoring in the latest sell-side validation. Mizuho raised its $TSLA price target from $475 to $530, explicitly citing Tesla’s leadership in autonomy, continued FSD progress, expanding robotaxi optionality, and longer-term robotics potential through Optimus. I pay attention when target revisions are driven by platform economics rather than near-term delivery math, because that’s where re-ratings usually originate.

I also keep Tesla’s reluctance to license FSD front and centre. I read it as strategic intent. Control the stack, control the data, control the long-duration margin pool.

I don’t ignore competitors. Waymo remains the scaled leader in the US robotaxi market, Zoox has begun limited public rides, and China’s players continue to expand aggressively. Tesla’s differentiation remains data density, fleet learning, and vertical integration, combined with cost discipline. Tesla iterates in public, at scale, and that compounds.

Optimus remains parallel optionality rather than a distraction. Recent demos show improved gait and light jogging capability, with the shared world model benefit coming through. I’m also noting the timing shift, with Gen 3 prototype work pushed toward Q1 2026, and the teleoperation debate that surfaced after the Miami stumble. Even with that noise, I still treat Optimus as an AI stack derivative, not a separate bet.

The Vegas Loop remains underappreciated as a live autonomy and infrastructure stress test. I’m tracking the operational stats as they stand: 8 stations live, roughly 3.5 miles operational, and over 3 million rides completed. It has converted 30 to 45 minute surface trips into 2 to 8 minute tunnel rides, with free rides inside LVCC and roughly $5 to $10 for resort connections. Cybertrucks have been deployed on routes like LVCC to Encore. FSD testing is underway. The approved build-out is 68 miles and 104 stations, including an airport phase targeted for Q1 2026, and long-run throughput aspirations up to roughly 90,000 passengers per hour. Even after haircutting aspirational numbers, the directional signal is clear. Tesla is being normalised as infrastructure.

📰 My Read On Dark Pool Positioning And Institutional Flow

I’m seeing continued evidence of institutional absorption rather than distribution, consistent with elevated off-exchange participation. I don’t treat that as a guarantee, but I do treat it as a feature of accumulation phases, not tops.

The options data adds a second layer of institutional tone. I’m not giving trade advice, but I am mapping positioning.

I’m tracking the $TSLA $600 call, expiry $02/20/2026, with candle volume of 12,838 and candle premium of $13,666,265, with an average fill around $10.64. I’m also tracking the $TSLA $800 call, expiry $03/20/2026, around 94D, with volume around 3,347, open interest around 2,198, an average around $4.91, and premium around $1,644,429, marked about 67% OTM. I’m layering that on top of the broader context I already have, calls dominating premium at roughly $36.28M versus puts around $6.20M, with call volume around 27.23k versus put volume around 8.04k.

That aligns with the flow notes I’m carrying: the $11.5M purchase of 28% OTM calls, the $13.6M call buyer, and additional bulls around $1.6M with March exposure at roughly 67% OTM. Whether every print is outright directional or part of a structure, the aggregate message remains the same. Forward convexity is being accumulated.

My gamma map keeps pointing to the same pressure point. $500 is not just psychological, it is the call resistance line on the profile. With spot around $475, the market is leaning into a zone where dealer hedging behaviour can change quickly if price starts accepting above that strike with volume. I’m also factoring in the call wall around $500, estimated above $400M notional, because it can amplify the pace of moves once the level engages.

🎯 My Trend Map And What I Am Watching Next

I’m working with a clean ladder from the data I have. Spot acceptance sits around $475 to $480. The immediate magnet is $500, which is both psychological and gamma-sensitive. The volatility pivot remains $437.5 HVL, and deeper structural support sits near $390.

If $TSLA continues to accept above the upper $470s while respecting the EMA structure, upward pressure stays intact. If acceptance fails and price rotates back toward the HVL, I expect volatility to reprice quickly because that level is where the dealer map shifts.

I’m also keeping the discipline filters on. I’m tracking the Bank of America survey showing a net 21% overweight in tech, with 54% of managers calling “long Magnificent Seven” the most crowded trade, and energy as the most underweight sector at net 26% underweight. Crowding does not end trends, but it changes how they fail if liquidity thins.

Near-term fundamentals are still noise I have to respect. The narrative backdrop includes the 2024 highs and the reference points: the all-time intraday high at $488.54 on 18 Dec 2024, the all-time closing high at $479.86 on 17 Dec 2024, and the recent price action, with $475.31 closing on Monday and being less than $5 from a new all-time closing high. I’m also keeping the macro and political cross-currents in view, including the policy shift that ended the federal EV purchase tax credit at the end of September and the brand volatility tied to Musk’s political exposure.

I’m also keeping the analyst landscape balanced. I’m carrying Barclays’ Dan Levy at Hold with a $350 price target, about 40% of analysts rating Buy, and an average price target around $400. I’m also holding the divergence in my framework, Piper constructive on FSD progress while others remain cautious on valuation and near-term EV headwinds.

Governance remains a live wildcard. I’m watching the Council of Institutional Investors webinar on 12/16/2025 from 2:00 PM to 2:30 PM on “Tesla, Texas Corporate Law, and Investors” because corporate control, investor rights, and governance optics can influence long-term valuation perception. I’m also aware of the board compensation overhang narrative, including the reported $3B+ in stock awards and the historical Equilar framing, even if no new awards have been granted since the 2020 settlement.

For now, structure, momentum, and flow remain aligned. I’m not reading $TSLA as a stock preparing to roll over. I’m reading it as one tightening ahead of a decisive resolution, with driverless autonomy now acting as the dominant long-duration catalyst.

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