To The Moon

$TSLA$
Key News:

• Tesla began Robotaxi testing without safety drivers in Austin, Texas, pushing the stock up 3.56% to $475.31 on Monday, a near one-year high.

• Mizuho raised its price target from $475 to $530, maintaining an Outperform rating.

• China approved L3 autonomous driving trials, creating synergy with Tesla's self-driving progress.

Options Analysis:

• Current Implied Volatility (IV) is extremely high, indicating expectations for sharp price swings. Overall sentiment is bullish, but there is pressure at key levels.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected high-volatility range: $460–520.

• Next Week (Dec 26): Range may expand to $450–530.

• Key Support: $460 – substantial Put OI provides important downside support.

• Key Resistance: $500 – not only heavy Call OI but also institutional selling blocks create strong resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$TSLA 20251219 460.0 PUT$ 
Rationale: Win rate 88.36%; choosing a strike well below the current price (Delta < 0.25) to capture premium in a high IV environment. Strong fundamentals with long-term support from self-driving progress; technical support is robust below $460.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $450.

$NVDA$
Key News:

• NVIDIA announced the acquisition of AI software firm SchedMD, strengthening its AI ecosystem via an open-source strategy.

• Meanwhile, short-seller Jim Chanos warned of a "depreciation time bomb" for NVIDIA, noting that short AI chip lifecycles could pose significant financial risks for CoreWeave and Oracle.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is elevated but options are relatively cheap; sentiment leans bullish. Options positioning shows clear divergence at key levels.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected wide range: $170–185.

• Next Week (Dec 26): Range may expand to $165–190.

• Key Support: $170 – a "wall" of massive Put OI, the key defense line for bulls.

• Key Resistance: $180–185 – $180 is a dense Call OI zone; $185 is the upper bound resistance for the week.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$NVDA 20251219 170.0 PUT$ 
ITM Probability: 12.84%, Win Rate ≈87.16%
Rationale: Strike is $7.72 below the current price; low IV percentile provides a safety margin; collects premium while retaining the opportunity to acquire stock at lower levels.
Stop: Consider closing if stock breaks below $172 (3.2% drop) or IV surges above 45%.

$AAPL$
Key News:

• Apple faces EU Digital Markets Act compliance issues, accused of charging up to 20% commissions on transactions outside the App Store; developer coalition demands stronger EU enforcement.

• Apple Music service is now natively integrated into select GM vehicles, offering 8 years of free service.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is at historical extremes (low), indicating expectations for very stable prices. Call trading is active; sentiment is positive.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected narrow range: $270–285.

• Next Week (Dec 26): Range may expand slightly to $265–290.

• Key Support: $270 – the most important "floor" formed by heavy Put OI, offering strong support.

• Key Resistance: $285 – concentrated Call OI creates immediate overhead resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$AAPL 20251226 260.0 PUT$ 
Rationale: Choosing a deep OTM put (Delta < 0.25) to profit from time decay in a low-volatility environment. Strikes at $265/$260 are ~4–5% below the current price, providing ample safety margin.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $268 (2.5% drop) or volatility suddenly spikes above 25%.

$AVGO$
Key News:

• Market questions the quality of Broadcom's AI growth; earnings show R&D spending up 27% but patents only up 5%, suggesting growth relies more on order volume than enhanced technological barriers.

• Bank of America previously raised its target to $500, bullish on AI as a core growth engine.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is elevated, indicating expectations for significant price swings. Call trading is active; sentiment leans bullish.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected wide range: $325–355.

• Next Week (Dec 26): Range may expand to $320–360.

• Key Support: $335–340 – $335 is recent technical support; $340 is a dense Put OI support zone.

• Key Resistance: $355–360 – $355 is the upper bound this week; $360 is a stronger psychological and options resistance level.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put (Delta < 0.25)
$AVGO 20251226 320.00 PUT$ 
Premium: $4.45, Delta: -0.17
Rationale: Faster time decay; strike is well below the current price of $341.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $315.
Risk Note: If the tech sector continues to decline or AVGO fundamentals deteriorate, assignment risk increases.

$AMZN$
Key News:

• Amazon, in partnership with JPMorgan and Slope, launched a seller credit service with an 8.99% interest rate.

• Its subsidiary Zoox officially launched autonomous taxi services in Las Vegas.

• BMO raised its price target to $304; current stock price is $222.56.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is low, indicating expectations for stable prices. Call trading is very active; sentiment is positive, though institutions are already setting up hedges.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected range: $215–230.

• Next Week (Dec 26): Range may expand slightly to $210–235.

• Key Support: $215–220 – $215 is recent technical support; $220 is guarded by substantial Put OI.

• Key Resistance: $225–235 – extremely dense Call OI creates a strong resistance band.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$AMZN 20251219 210.0 PUT$ 
Rationale: Strike is 5.7% below the current price; low IV percentile provides a safety margin; OI of 15,563 ensures good liquidity.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $215 (1% below support).

$NFLX$
Key News:

• Netflix recently added nearly 9 million subscribers but revenue growth was unimpressive; the company lowered its Q4 guidance, raising market concerns.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is neutral, indicating expectations for moderate price swings. Short-term sentiment leans bullish, but heavy institutional Put buying for hedging reveals downside risk concerns.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected range: $92–97.

• Next Week (Dec 26): Range may expand to $90–100.

• Key Support: $92–93 – $93 is a dense Put OI zone, forming key support.

• Key Resistance: $97–100 – $97 is this week's resistance; $100 has massive Call OI, offering strong resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$NFLX 20251226 92.00 PUT$ 
Rationale: $92 is a recent key support level; Put OI of 2,190 provides liquidity; relatively high IV (31.28%) boosts premium income.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $90.5 (next support level).

$ORCL$
Key News:

• CITIC Securities upgraded Oracle to Hold with a $200 target, based on FY26Q2 revenue of $16.06B (+14% YoY) and 68% IaaS revenue growth.

• However, market concerns include aggressive capital expenditure (revised up to $50B) and rising debt-to-asset ratios.

• Prominent short-seller Jim Chanos warned of AI chip depreciation risks, pressuring tech stocks overall.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is high, indicating expectations for sharp price swings. Long/short forces are roughly balanced but slightly positive.

• This Week: Expected wide range: $182–195.

• Next Week: Range may expand to $180–200.

• Key Support: $182.5 – a recent technical low; dense Put OI in the $180–185 zone forms a strong support band.

• Key Resistance: $195–200 – $195 is the upper bound this week; $200 is an important psychological and institutional target resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$ORCL 20251226 180.0 PUT$ 
Rationale: Win rate 79.1%; stock near support with high IV, increasing probability of keeping the premium.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $177 (3% below support).

$META$
Key News:

• Meta announced a major strategic shift in the Metaverse, planning to cut 10–30% of staff in its Reality Labs division, which has consumed $70B over the past four years.

• Company resources will shift to the AI smart glasses business, with 2025 shipments exceeding 2 million units, up 300% YoY.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is at yearly lows, indicating expectations for very steady prices. Overall sentiment is bullish.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected mild range: $640–680.

• Next Week (Dec 26): Range may expand to $630–690.

• Key Support: $640–650 – $640 has Put OI support; $650 is an important psychological and trading pivot.

• Key Resistance: $680–700 – $680 is the peak Call OI pressure level; $700 is stronger technical resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$META 20251226 640.0 PUT$ 
Rationale: Strike is ~2.6% below the current price, providing sufficient safety margin; IV of 25.17% is above HV, offering attractive premium.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $625 (4.9% drop) or option price rises to $8.
Risk Note: Watch for Apple/Amazon earnings on Thursday impacting overall tech sentiment; renewed concerns over Meta's capex could increase volatility.

$PLTR$
Key News:

• Palantir has recently pulled back amid "AI bubble" rhetoric, but fundamentals remain strong.

• BofA analysts maintain a $255 target (highest on Wall Street), citing growth driven by both government and enterprise sectors; stock up >150% over the past year and >140% in 2025.

• Valuation is high (forward P/E ~180x), but enterprise and government order growth continues without signs of slowing.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is extremely high but options are relatively cheap, indicating expectations for sharp volatility. Short-term sentiment leans bullish.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected high-volatility range: $175–195.

• Next Week (Dec 26): Range may expand to $170–200.

• Key Support: $175–180 – $180 has massive Put OI support; $175 is a historical technical support level.

• Key Resistance: $195–200 – $195 is a recent high and this week's resistance; $200 is a psychological level and stronger Call OI resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$PLTR 20251226 170.0 PUT$ 
Win Probability: 94.37% (ITM Probability 5.63%)
Rationale: $170 is strong support (9.5% below current price); BofA's bullish view provides fundamental support. High IV delivers premium income.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $165 (Delta < -0.1).
(Strategy based on Dec 26 expiry options, where time decay accelerates and high IV enhances premium collection.)