To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Bullish $Oracle(ORCL)$ Bullish $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Bullish 19Dec25 🇺🇸|20Dec25 🇳🇿

Structure holding below prior highs as liquidity is absorbed into quadruple witching and Opex distortions.

Real-time context into today’s session. Historically in 2025, when $TSLA’s first 15-minute candle opens red, the stock has only closed green around 20% of the time. Same setup today. I treat this as probabilistic context, not a signal, especially into Opex and quadruple witching conditions.

📊 My Daily Structure And Technical Read

I am reading $TSLA through a consolidation and absorption lens rather than deterioration. On the 4 hour chart, price continues to trade above rising medium term structure, with both Keltner and Bollinger envelopes still sloping upward. That slope matters because it confirms trend integrity even as price compresses.

The pullback from the upper $490s is occurring inside prior value rather than below it. I am focused on the upper $470s through low $480s as the active battle zone. This is where prior breakout buyers are being tested, and so far dips into that range continue to attract responsive demand rather than acceptance lower.

On the 30 minute view, price has rotated back toward the EMA cluster after riding the upper bands earlier in the week. I read this as a reset, not a failure. The 13 and 21 EMAs have flattened but remain positively aligned above the 55 EMA, signalling internal energy cooling without structural damage. RSI has worked off overbought conditions and is rotating through neutral bands rather than breaking down. MACD is compressing into a shallow reset rather than rolling over, consistent with post expansion consolidation.

Volume supports this interpretation. Yesterday’s +3.45% close printed with positive CVD and continued relative strength versus the broader tape. Today’s softer price action is unfolding on lighter initiative volume, pointing to absorption rather than aggressive distribution. The swing model remains bullish with price pushing toward the risk trigger, while the lower band in the mid $440s highlights the depth of structure built underneath this move.

Relative strength continues to separate signal from noise. Over the past month, $TSLA has been the best performing stock in the MAG7. Since the September rate cut, it remains a top three performer despite rallying hard into the Fed event.

🔍 My View On Autonomy, FSD, And Strategic Advantage

I continue to frame autonomy as a platform, not a feature. Cybercab testing in Austin has progressed beyond visual confirmation. Unsupervised robotaxi testing in the city was confirmed by Elon Musk on 15Dec25, signalling movement from controlled demos toward live operational validation.

The 2025 holiday software update reinforces this trajectory. FSD v14.2.1.25 expands end to end neural network capability, improves handling of complex edge cases, integrates Grok with navigation commands, and extends support across Hardware 4 vehicles. These are substantive software gains that compound real world performance and shorten the path toward higher autonomy tiers.

Tesla’s reluctance to broadly license FSD remains a deliberate strategic decision. Fleet scale, vertically integrated hardware and software, and proprietary driving telemetry continue to widen the moat versus legacy OEMs that rely on fragmented suppliers and limited datasets. The expansion of competitors like Waymo and Zoox confirms the size of the autonomous ride hailing opportunity rather than diminishing Tesla’s relevance. This is a market forming, not a zero sum contest.

Tesla Insurance fits into this same platform logic. Expansion efforts, including recent moves toward Florida availability initially for new buyers, reinforce Tesla’s ability to price risk dynamically using real driving behaviour and safety outcomes, with existing owners expected to gain access later. Over time, insurance becomes a reinforcing loop that rewards safer driving, improves loss ratios, and strengthens autonomy economics. This is vertical integration extending beyond vehicles into recurring, software adjacent revenue.

I also acknowledge regulatory reality. California’s DMV issued a proposed 30 day sales suspension related to Autopilot and FSD marketing language on 16Dec25, currently on hold pending Tesla’s response. Regulatory scrutiny introduces volatility, but it does not negate platform progress. Notably, Italy’s antitrust authority closed its investigation into EV consumer disclosures on 19Dec25, resolving that overhang positively.

🌍 Global Demand And Product Validation

I am watching China closely into year end, and the data points here remain constructive. With less than two weeks left in 2025, Tesla China stores are already reporting Q4 sales targets being met or exceeded, store by store. China remains Tesla’s largest market outside the US and a critical margin and volume lever.

What stands out is that this demand is holding despite intense local EV competition and sector wide pricing pressure. That tells me Tesla’s brand, software differentiation, and cost structure continue to resonate. It reinforces why short term regional noise does not invalidate the longer term platform thesis. Demand confirmation at scale matters.

🔋 Energy And Infrastructure Optionality

Tesla’s waste heat recovery system at Gigafactory Shanghai demonstrates how first-principles engineering converts efficiency into margin resilience. By reclaiming waste heat from refrigeration systems and exhaust streams, Tesla reduces natural gas consumption, lowers operating costs, and cuts emissions at scale. The annual savings of 5,754 tons of standard coal equivalent are meaningful not as symbolism, but as a repeatable efficiency advantage that can be deployed across Tesla’s global factory footprint. This type of infrastructure optimisation quietly strengthens Tesla’s cost moat during periods of pricing pressure.

🤖 Optimus And AI Platform Optionality

Optimus remains the most underappreciated leg of Tesla’s long duration optionality. Management has repeatedly signalled that 2025 will bring meaningful deployment progress, with hints of major capability surprises rather than incremental demos. The strategic importance here is not novelty, it is integration.

Optimus sits at the intersection of Tesla’s AI stack, real world data, and manufacturing expertise. Integration with large language models and vision systems enables natural language commands and task generalisation across household, warehouse, and industrial environments. If execution continues, Optimus expands Tesla’s addressable market far beyond transportation into labour replacement and productivity automation. That is why long term valuation models increasingly reference Tesla as an AI platform company rather than a pure automaker.

📰 My Read On Dark Pool Positioning And Institutional Flow

Flow remains bifurcated by timeframe. Into quadruple witching, bears added over $4.1M in short dated put premium early today. At the same time, longer dated positioning remains constructive. Notable flow includes the $TSLA 645 C 20FEB2026 with $2.8M in premium, with the whale retaining more than half the position.

The liquidation of crowded $500 lottos into expiry fits a classic Opex pattern. When upside becomes consensus, the market often needs to flush excess leverage before resuming trend. I am not seeing sustained institutional distribution through dark pools. Off exchange activity instead suggests absorption, with price holding structure despite intraday volatility.

Across the MAG7, $142M in net short dated single leg calls highlights how elevated speculative appetite remains even as positioning resets into record expiration.

🎯 My Trend Map And What I Am Watching Next

I am mapping the current regime as consolidation within an established uptrend. Holding the upper $470s through low $480s keeps structure intact and allows momentum to rebuild after Opex distortions. Above, prior highs just under $500 remain the next liquidity pocket. Acceptance above that zone shifts the tape back into expansion if macro conditions remain supportive.

Below, meaningful risk only emerges if price loses rising EMA structure and accepts value back into the mid $450s. At present, that scenario is not being confirmed by volume, momentum, or flow.

📈 Macro And Cross Asset Context

The broader backdrop remains constructive. US equities are green into a record options expiration, tech leadership persists, sentiment data has improved, and the BOJ rate hike failed to shock markets. Seasonal dynamics are back in focus, with Santa rally narratives resurfacing. If $TSLA advances into year end near or above prior highs, institutional window dressing becomes a real factor. Portfolio managers care deeply about client statements, and $TSLA remains one of the most requested names.

📊 Valuation And Long Duration Framing

External valuation frameworks continue to evolve. Truist raised its price target from $406 to $444 while maintaining a Hold, explicitly tying valuation to AI products and robotaxi execution. Deutsche Bank raised its target to $500. Wedbush maintains a $600 base case and $800 bull case, framing autonomy as the primary upside driver into 2026. Longer duration scenarios contextualise the scale of optionality across FSD, energy storage, and Optimus if execution continues.

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