To The Moon

I’m framing everything below through the lens of a major year-end expiry window. This is quadruple witching and OPEX territory, where equity options, index options, single-stock futures, and index futures all roll simultaneously. These events routinely distort spot price, compress realised volatility, and mute price discovery as dealer hedging dominates tape action. What looks calm on the surface often masks aggressive positioning shifts underneath.

🧠 Options, Volatility and the Surface Signal

I’m watching $NVDA’s volatility surface closely. Near-term implied volatility remains compressed and the vol smile has flattened materially. Short-dated expiries are pricing smaller realised moves than earlier in the year, which is consistent with heavy dealer gamma and expiry pinning rather than genuine complacency. Importantly, deep OTM options remain structurally expensive, telling me tail risk is still being respected. Calm expectations for now, but convexity is not being handed out cheaply.

📊 $180 as a Structural Pivot, Not a Headline Trade

I’m focused on the $180 region as a key structural zone. On both the 30-minute and 4-hour charts, price has reclaimed short-term momentum while remaining well-contained inside Keltner and Bollinger regimes. This is controlled rotation, not euphoric breakout behaviour. Into OPEX, dealers tend to pin price near high open-interest strikes, suppressing intraday range. Post-expiry behaviour will matter far more than the expiry itself.

🧭 Quadruple Witching, Gamma and Why Post-OPEX Matters

Into quadruple witching, gamma hedging dampens volatility and price oscillates mechanically. Once expiry passes, hedges roll, dealers de-gamma, and liquidity normalises. Historically, that is when suppressed volatility re-expands, particularly in market leaders. This alignment between flattened near-term vol and controlled tape reinforces my view that we are in a transitional regime, not a resolved one.

🚨 Headline Risk Turns Marginal Tailwind

Reports of a US review of H200 exports to 🇨🇳 China have improved sentiment at the margin. Optionality around China exposure is no longer being fully discounted. The market is beginning to reprice that upside asymmetrically rather than dismiss it outright.

🏛️ Regulatory Overhang Clears, Strategy Comes Into Focus

The FTC ending its review of $NVDA’s $5B $INTC stake removes a meaningful uncertainty. Nvidia’s September 2025 purchase of Intel shares at $23.28 was strategic, not opportunistic. Pairing Nvidia GPUs with Intel CPUs and x86 architecture strengthens AI infrastructure and PC ecosystem alignment at a time when platform control is becoming decisive.

💰 Valuation Compression, Bernstein’s Math and Why This Is Rare

Bernstein’s framing is critical. Despite ~$30% YTD performance, $NVDA has stagnated since July and materially underperformed the SOX, even as earnings estimates continued to rise. The result is sharp multiple compression, with forward P/E now just under 25x, down ~27% this year. For Nvidia, that places valuation in the 11th percentile of the last decade. Relative to the SOX, NVDA trades at a ~13% discount, effectively first-percentile cheap. There have been only thirteen days in the past ten years where NVDA has traded cheaper versus the SOX.

🔬 AI Angst vs Reality Checks

Concerns around capex sustainability and the GPU versus TPU debate have weighed on sentiment. But capex intentions remain intact, the GPU narrative is regaining traction relative to ASICs, and Rubin is approaching with CES and GTC as potential catalysts. H200 approval remains a live upside lever. Against $500B+ in Blackwell and Rubin guidance, expectations still look conservative.

📈 Flows, Expiry and the Santa Question

Through recent chop, Mag 7 absorbed ~$142M in net short-dated, single-leg call buying. That is not defensive positioning. With record options expiration hitting, tech leading, sentiment stabilising, and macro shocks largely absorbed, the question is whether post-OPEX flows reassert directional momentum into year-end or simply extend the grind.

🌐 Cross-Currents Across Big Tech

Wedbush raised $GOOGL to $350 from $320, maintained Outperform.

Wedbush lowered $META to $880 from $920, still Outperform.

Truist raised $NVDA to $275 from $255, Buy intact.

This is rotation within leadership, not abandonment of the AI theme.

🔐 Google Cloud, Palo Alto and the Security Bottleneck

I’m watching $GOOGL and $PANW closely after announcing an expanded partnership described as Google Cloud’s largest security services deal. Reuters notes a commitment approaching $10B over several years. With 99% of organisations experiencing AI infrastructure attacks last year, end-to-end AI security from code to cloud is becoming a gating factor for enterprise adoption, not an add-on.

⚙️ The $2T AI Buildout, Where Optimism Meets Arithmetic

Big Tech plans ~$300–400B in AI capex in 2025 alone, with $1.15T projected through 2027. Debt issuance hit $121B this year, four times the historical average, with another ~$100B expected in 2026. Bain estimates $2T per year in AI revenue is required by 2030 versus roughly $20B today. That implies a 100x revenue expansion just to break even. GPUs realistically last 1–3 years but are depreciated over 5–6+ years, pushing economic reality forward in time. CoreWeave’s IPO drawdown and falling GPU rental rates are reminders that supply can outrun demand faster than narratives adjust.

📉 Three Paths Forward

Bull case, costs fall, killer apps emerge, pilots scale into production.

Soft landing, slower growth, selective writedowns, hyperscalers dominate.

Telecom replay, idle capacity, impairments, lost shareholder value.

📡 Signals I’m Watching Into 2026

Data centre utilisation above 70% signals health, below 50% signals oversupply.

GPU rental prices, with sustained sub-$2 per hour pointing to glut risk.

Enterprise pilot-to-production conversion above 15% to confirm demand inflection.

🧭 Bottom Line

I see a market that is calmer on the surface, heavily engineered into expiry, and increasingly valuation-aware underneath. $NVDA sits at the centre of that tension. Volatility is suppressed, structure is intact, valuation is historically compelling, but the AI buildout now has to earn its keep. Post-OPEX behaviour will tell the real story. Demand, not ambition, decides the winners from here.

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