To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Bullish $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Bullish $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Bullish 31Dec25 🇺🇸 | 01Jan26 🇳🇿 I’m calling this market exactly as it traded, not as it was supposed to. The Grinch is no longer stealing Christmas, he’s cancelling it. The Santa Rally script failed, volatility took control, and $TSLA became the clearest expression of a regime shift that punished complacency and rewarded structure. That Grinch board isn’t satire. It’s a ledger. Happy New Year to all Tigers and traders 🎆 I’m stepping into 2026 focused on discipline, data, and positioning, not folklore. 🎅❌ Santa Rally Failure: When the Grinch Took Control of the Tape I’m looking straight at the data. Five consecutive red sessions during the Santa Rally window. That outcome is statistically abnormal and structurally meaningful. This was not random selling. It was distribution into resistance during a volatility expansion phase. The Grinch didn’t show up because the market was weak. The Grinch showed up because excess needed to be cleared. $TSLA finished 2025 up 11.36%. On the surface, that appears respectable. Under the hood, this was a volatility trader’s market. Those who focused on structure, bands, and regime awareness materially outperformed simple buy-and-hold exposure. This is how late-cycle strength disguises internal fragility. 📐 Technical Structure: Targets Met, Rejected, and Repriced I’m starting with the higher timeframes, because that’s where truth lives. Monthly chart The long upper wick into resistance is the tell. That candle signals exhaustion rather than collapse. Momentum cooled, while the primary trend remained intact. Weekly chart This is the core structural message, aligned directly with the lower arrow on the chart. $TSLA hit its upside target and failed; that rejection points to a likely test of the lower UTL, as marked by the lower arrow, while the broader trend remains bullish longer term. That dynamic reflects a reset, not a reversal. 4H and 30-minute charts Price rolled through the upper Keltner band, lost the mid band, and compressed into the lower volatility envelope. This is controlled unwinding, not panic. Excess is being worked off without structural failure. Key levels I’m tracking with precision 🟢 Bullish reclaim zone: $464.70–$470 🔴 Deterioration risk below: $438–$440 🔵 Spot reference: $449 🟦 Blue band support: $452 As long as price avoids sustained acceptance below lower structure, the move remains corrective rather than destructive. 📉 Near-Term Structure and the Inverse Santa Rally The inverse Santa Rally continues to slice through support, including my mid-term moving average shown in blue. That loss matters tactically, as it confirms the unwind is no longer cosmetic but structural in the near term. Diamond Momentum has flatlined. That tells me excess has already been worked off, and the tape is now in a recharge phase rather than active distribution. This is not a momentum chase environment, it’s a reset environment. 📦 Q4 Deliveries: The Reaction Will Matter More Than the Number $TSLA reports Q4 delivery numbers Friday pre-market. The headline figure will dominate commentary, but the market response is what actually matters. $TSLA and Elon signaling that robotaxi production will begin in April meaningfully reduces pressure on December deliveries. That forward signal shifts the narrative away from a single-quarter snapshot and toward execution into 2026. Here’s how I’m framing Friday. 1. I expect December deliveries to come in around 415k versus the Street at 449k, implying deliveries down roughly 16% YoY, compared with the Street’s expectation of about a 10% decline. 2. There will be substantial noise in these numbers, similar to the September quarter, which was the noisiest delivery quarter in Tesla’s history due to tax credit expirations. 3. In October, U.S. EV registrations across all automakers were down approximately 30% YoY, reinforcing that this is a sector-wide demand issue rather than a Tesla-specific one. 4. One way to cut through the distortion is to reallocate roughly 55k deliveries that were likely pulled forward into September due to the tax credit. Adjusting for that shift moves the implied growth rates in both September and December closer to down ~5% YoY. 5. In other words, a headline “down 16%” December print is structurally closer to a down ~5% underlying demand trend. Ultimately, investors are likely to look past any December-quarter delivery miss, as the adjusted data should suggest the auto business is beginning to stabilise. 🧠 Sentiment and Valuation: When Even Bears Exercise Restraint I’m paying close attention to who is not pressing the short side here. Michael Burry publicly stated he is not shorting Tesla, despite describing the valuation as stretched. That distinction matters. Commentary drives headlines, positioning drives outcomes. When disciplined sceptics choose restraint over conviction, it often signals that downside asymmetry has already been compressed. 📊 Fundamentals: Softer Demand, Sharper Strategic Response Tesla’s own compiled estimate points to approximately 1.6–1.64M vehicle deliveries in 2025, around -8% YoY, marking a second consecutive annual decline. Demand has softened, and growth is no longer linear. Most analysts stop at that observation. That’s the mistake. 🇺🇸🚗 Michigan Rentals: Strategic Market Capture, Not Promotion This is where the Grinch shifts from correction to offence. Model 3 and Model Y at $60 per day. Cybertruck at $75. Model S and X at $90. Unlimited miles. Free charging. Autopilot included. The structure eliminates dealer friction, removes intermediary markups, and strips out the upsell-heavy mechanics that dominate legacy auto distribution. Seven days maximum, in-state only. That is not a limitation. It is a controlled, data-driven market test. Tesla is allowing customers to live with the product in Detroit, the symbolic centre of legacy auto. This is customer acquisition, behavioural insight, and brand dominance converging in a single move. Legacy manufacturers advertise. Tesla deploys. 🤖🧠 Autonomy, AI, and Why the Grinch Looks Beyond 2025 I’m widening the lens, because this is where long-term mispricing develops. Unsupervised FSD and Cybercab robotaxi deployment are targeted for 2026, shifting the revenue model from hardware margins toward software economics. Optimus humanoid robots are already entering factory task testing in 2025, with potential external deployments by late 2026. AI5 hardware is expected to unify vehicles, robotics, and data centres under a single compute architecture, enabling scale that legacy manufacturers cannot replicate. Energy continues to expand quietly in the background, with 9.6 GWh deployed in Q2 2025 alone, reinforcing diversification beyond vehicle volumes. This is why near-term delivery softness does not invalidate the longer-term thesis. 🔮 2026 Framework: Trading Tesla After the Grinch Phase I’m entering 2026 with a clear framework. Short term, volatility dominates. Structure outweighs narrative. Failed targets invite retests. Medium term, Tesla remains strategically aggressive, reducing friction and expanding touchpoints when growth moderates. Long term, this remains a software-defined, AI-driven ecosystem operating on a fundamentally different axis from traditional auto manufacturers. The Grinch phase doesn’t end the story. It cleans the tape so the next trend can emerge with integrity. 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @TigerPicks @TigerStars @TigerWire @TigerObserver