To The Moon

$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  📊 Daily Market Update | 02Jan26 🇺🇸 | 03Jan26 🇳🇿 📊

I’m opening 2026 focused on positioning, not price. Structure, crowding, and volatility are already doing the heavy lifting while headlines lag. Markets are transitioning from 2025’s concentrated AI-driven leadership into a broader macro regime shaped by softer inflation, evolving central-bank pivots, and shifting risk appetite. This is the type of tape that rewards patience and punishes reaction.

📈 Index Tape

Markets are mixed in thin post-holiday liquidity.

The Dow is marginally higher, attempting to arrest a four-day losing streak.

The S&P 500 is modestly lower.

The Nasdaq is down again, pressing toward a fifth consecutive daily decline, its longest slide in nearly 12 months.

Tech remains heavy, but the selling is controlled. Breadth is soft, not collapsing. Leadership remains narrow, with rotation beginning to surface underneath.

⚠️ Volatility Signal

The VIX is flat on the session, yet quietly positioning for a fifth straight daily gain.

That matters. When price drifts while volatility refuses to collapse, it tells me risk is being bid, not offered.

IV term structure remains in mild contango.

$SPY IV Rank remains pinned near ~7%.

Optionality remains extremely cheap even as out-of-the-money accumulation quietly builds asymmetry across the curve. That imbalance is deliberate.

📉 Seasonality Check

Early January rarely delivers fireworks.

Since 1953, the S&P 500’s median first-trading-day return is around -0.3%, with gains occurring less than half the time. The index has declined on the first trading day in each of the past three years.

This tape is tracking historical precedent almost perfectly.

🧩 Structure Matters

Strong positive gamma exposure continues to suppress downside. Dealer hedging flows are limiting follow-through on selling pressure.

This is not panic.

This is controlled, systematic de-risking.

Hedge fund gross exposure remains elevated near 2025 peaks, with only modest net de-grossing so far. Discretionary books appear opportunistic rather than defensive.

🚩 Crowded Shorts, Early-2026 Warnings

Short interest is already elevated and concentrated among select $1B+ market-cap names:

$NTLA $NVAX $CLSK $IOVA $SOUN

$RXRX $HIMS $UAA $AI $APLD

Crowded trades do not stay static. They unwind slowly, until they don’t.

I treat this as a volatility map, not a forecast.

🔥 Short-Squeeze Pressure Zones

Where elevated short interest overlaps fragile structure:

$SKIN $SEI $LEU $PGY $IREN $SNDX $OKLO $SATS

$NBIS $PRAX $TEM $CSIQ $LQDA $RDDT $QBTS

$UPWK $ASTS $TERN $ZIM $PL $MLYS $RGTI

This is where asymmetry lives when liquidity shifts.

📊 Options Flow Highlights

$BIDU stood out as call buyers moved in aggressively.

52k calls vs 20k puts, roughly 9× average daily volume.

Most active contracts include Jan 2026 $135 calls and weekly $150 calls.

What matters is pricing. SVI near ~40%, just the 25th percentile of its one-year range. Directional conviction without panic premium expansion is a tell.

📌 Catalyst confirmed. Baidu plans to spin off and list its Kunlunxin AI chip unit on HKEX. Hong Kong shares jumped 7.5% as the market begins independently valuing the high-growth semiconductor business while strategic control remains intact.

🔥 Momentum Leader, $SNDK

SanDisk remains the clear standout to start 2026.

Up over 11%, trading near $263, doing outsized work to keep Nasdaq from rolling.

Context matters.

Post-February 2025 IPO, $SNDK delivered roughly a +550% move in 2025.

Flow confirms sponsorship.

Over $7M in single-leg calls traded versus just ~$231k in puts.

Price is up more than $34, roughly +14%.

This is institutional momentum, not retail chasing.

📉 Pressure Point, $PLTR

Palantir remains under near-term stress.

Down roughly 5% intraday with more than $38M in single-leg calls sold. Dealers are actively reducing upside gamma exposure.

This is not a thesis break, but near-term structure has softened. The $170–175 gamma zone remains key.

⚠️ Volatility Accumulation

Another $2.4M+ in out-of-the-money VIX calls traded today.

Since early December:

Over $50M in calls

Just $113k in puts

Cheap volatility continues to be accumulated quietly. That asymmetry is not accidental.

⚡️ Tesla Snapshot, What Matters Today

Tesla weakness is now structural, not just noise:

⚡️ Trading at $438.36 (-2.5%), lowest close since 02Dec

⚡️ Down 7 straight sessions (-10.3%), 8 of last 9 red

⚡️ Worst 7-day stretch since Nov ’25

⚡️ -7.8% this week, worst since Jun ’25

⚡️ Now 10.5% below ATH at $489.88

The Grinch chose violence this year!

At the same time, the competitive landscape shifted.

BYD officially passed Tesla as the world’s largest all-electric vehicle seller in 2025.

BYD 2025 BEV sales: 2.26M units (+28% y/y)

Tesla 2025 deliveries: 1.64M units (-9% y/y)

BYD has now topped Tesla for five consecutive months.

Tesla bulls continue to anchor on Cybercab, autonomy, and AI optionality into 2026, but near-term delivery momentum has clearly shifted.

🧱 Berkshire Hathaway, Compounding in Context

Perspective matters.

Berkshire Hathaway generated $372.1B in annual revenue in 2025, up from $81.7B in 2005 under Warren Buffett’s leadership. That is a two-decade compounding story built on durable cash flows, operating discipline, and capital allocation, not cycles.

As leadership transitions, that framework remains intact.

Alongside the leadership transition, Berkshire just closed its $9.7B acquisition of OxyChem from Occidental Petroleum, adding a top-3 U.S. chemicals producer to the portfolio. This is exactly the type of asset Buffett has always favoured, real-world essentials, durable demand, and reliable cash flows that compound quietly across cycles.

Classic Buffett.

Boring. Critical. Cash-generating 🧱💰

🧠 AI Capex Is the Real Macro

Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft have collectively pledged $440B in AI-related investment for 2026.

This is not hype spend.

This is infrastructure build-out.

AI deal flow continued all week:

• SoftBank in talks to acquire $DBRG for ~$4B, AI infrastructure push

• $META acquiring AI startup Manus

• $APLD spinning cloud operations and merging with $EKSO to form ChronoScale

• $BIDU spinning out Kunlunxin via Hong Kong listing

$SMCI Super Micro Computer secures $2 billion revolving credit facility

The credit agreement includes a $200 million letter-of-credit sub-limit and a $150 million same-day borrowing sub-limit. The company has an option to increase the facility by up to $1 billion, subject to certain condition.

Capital continues moving downstream into compute, power, storage, networking, and data-centre infrastructure.

📈 Breadth, New Highs Still Expanding

Despite index pressure, breadth remains alive. The following names printed new 52-week highs at some point today:

$ASML $TSM $XOM $LRCX $MU $AA $BCS $BIDU

$CIEN $ESLT $FIVE $FOX $FTAI $GSK $HSBC

$JBL $NUE $SATS $SU $TECK $TER $ULTA

That divergence between index softness and expanding highs is worth respecting.

🛢 Energy and Metals

Oil remains under pressure near $60 Brent as surplus expectations outweigh geopolitical risk.

Silver traded at record highs this week, reinforcing the inflation-hedge and industrial-demand crossover theme as holiday-thinned liquidity exaggerated moves.

₿ Bitcoin Snapshot, Divergence Worth Watching

Bitcoin spiked above $90,000 heading into the first weekend of 2026, even as spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows this week. That divergence matters. Price strength in the face of ETF outflows suggests demand is coming from outside passive vehicles, likely institutional, offshore, or direct allocation flows rather than retail momentum chasing. On-chain activity continues to improve, reinforcing that this move is not purely speculative. Bitcoin continues to trade as a liquidity and risk-appetite barometer, not an isolated asset class.

₿ Crypto Equity Read-Through, $MSTR

Strategy is already responding to Bitcoin strength on Day 1 of 2026. $MSTR is up +3.7% as Bitcoin gains roughly +1.4%, reinforcing its role as a high-beta proxy rather than a simple balance-sheet story. Management also raised the dividend on its Bitcoin-backed preferred to 11%, up from 10.75%, signalling confidence in collateral durability and cash-flow coverage tied to BTC exposure. Context matters. 2025 was rough. $MSTR finished the year down -47.5%, marking its longest six-month losing streak on record. That reset matters when positioning begins to turn. This is not a trend call yet. It is a reminder that crypto-linked equities often move before narratives catch up, especially when volatility remains underpriced.

📊 Macro Backdrop

This week featured FOMC minutes, silver at record highs, holiday-thinned trade, and markets attempting to snap a four-day skid.

All three major U.S. indices finished 2025 green, marking a third consecutive year of gains:

$DJI +13%

$SPX +16.4%

$IXIC +20.4%

🧠 Closing Read

This is how major years begin.

Quietly. With positioning speaking louder than headlines.

Crowded shorts already visible.

Gamma pinning price while risk migrates underneath.

Volatility structurally underpriced and quietly accumulating asymmetry.

AI capex remains a multi-quarter, cross-asset force.

I’m staying focused on structure, flow, and crowding.

The tape always speaks before the narrative catches up.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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