2026 Outlook: The Great Reset
2026 Outlook: The Great Reset
Key Takeaways
• Equities enter a late-cycle correction phase
• Bonds and the dollar strengthen as risk comes off
• Crypto faces a deeper deleveraging cycle
• Gold consolidates after a multi-year advance
The table below outlines 2026 downside risk zones and expected year-end closing levels across major assets.
1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$
The S&P500 has marginally exceeded the upper boundary of its multi-year trend channel — a common signature of terminal 5th waves.
The Trigger: A reversal back below ~6,650 would confirm a false breakout.
The Trade: We are positioning for a higher-degree Wave 4 correction toward 5,500–5,100 (-20–25%), which aligns perfectly with the 200-week MA.
2. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$
The Bond ETF completed a clear 5-wave decline into the 2023 lows and remains in a corrective recovery phase.
The Rotation: As equities correct, capital will rotate into safety (duration).
Outlook: Odds favor a Wave B rally targeting 98–108 (+12-25%), equaling the first leg up. This inversely correlates with the projected 20% drop in stocks.
3.DXY
Don't be fooled by the recent drop. After a ~10% decline in 2025, $DXY is stabilizing at a massive confluence of support:
• The decade-long channel from 2009.
• The primary trendline from 2023.
The Impact:
This sets the stage for a relief rally toward 102–107. Historically, dollar strength at these levels coincides with liquidity tightening and pressure on risk assets.
4.BTC
Bitcoin has likely completed a higher-degree 5-wave cycle stretching back to 2015. The speculative engine is stalling.
The Setup: Structure now favors a Wave 4 reset toward 30,000. This aligns with:
• Monthly FVG support.
• The 23.6% retracement of the decade-long rally.
Outlook: This is a cyclical reset, not a secular top. We expect a recovery into year-end as leverage is flushed out.
5. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$
Gold surged in a higher-degree Wave 3 in 2025, reaching the 261.8% extension of Wave 1 while remaining perfectly contained within its multi-year trend channel.
The Setup: While price could drift marginally higher, risk favors a Wave 4 consolidation toward 4,000–3,800.
Outlook: A pullback to this zone would relieve excess momentum while preserving the structural uptrend. We view this as a buying opportunity for the final leg higher.
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