To The Moon

$Amazon (AMZN) $The stock price has shown an upward trend in recent days. On 2026-01-07, it rose 3.08% intraday, and closed at 246.29 USD on 2026-01-09, up 1.96% from the previous day).

Amazon's strategic actions in the field of AI have become a key driving force. For example, the company plans to invest US $10 billion in OpenAI to strengthen AI technical barriers, which is seen by the market as a signal to improve long-term competitiveness. At the same time, the Bank of America Securities report predicts that 2026 will be the "first year of independent AI", and Amazon is listed as one of the leading stocks due to its layout in cloud services (AWS) and smart commerce.

Amazon is currently facing technical overbought, rising short pressure, uncertainty in AI investment returns and policy risks that may trigger a stock price correction. It is necessary to pay attention to the key support level of $231.43 and changes in short-term capital flows.

As of 2026-01-09, Amazon's stock price was reported at US $246.29, an increase of 1.96% from the previous day. The cumulative increase on the 5th reached US $4.73 (1.96%), close to the 52-week high of US $258.60. The current stock price has broken through the support level of $231.43 (2026-01-08), but it is only 1.2% away from the resistance level of $249.13. Technical indicators show short-term overbought risk.

The trading volume on January 9 was 39.5098 million shares, with a volume ratio of 0.89 (lower than 1), indicating that the upward momentum has weakened. If the subsequent trading volume cannot match the breakthrough of resistance level, profit-taking may be triggered.

On 2026-01-07, the short trading volume was 4.5152 million shares, accounting for 10.69% of the total trading volume of the day, a significant increase from 8.86% on 2025-12-23. Recently, the average short trading volume has remained in the range of 4 million-5.5 million shares, indicating that some funds are betting on a correction.

Although the average target price of 72 institutions is US $291.20 (the highest is US $360), the lowest target price of US $227.10 implies a potential downside of 7.8%, so we need to be wary of the risk of optimistic expectation revision.

AMZN Bear Call Spread Strategy

1. Strategy structure

Investors inAmazon.com (AMZN)Build aBear Call Spread Bear Call SpreadStrategy. The strategy passesSell lower strike price Call + buy higher strike price CallConstitute, belonging toLimited benefits, limited risksThe bearish or shock strategy is suitable for judging the situation that AMZN is difficult to rise sharply in the short term.

(1) Sell Call with lower execution price (main source of income)

• Sell strike priceK ₁ = 250Call

• Premium receivedUS $2.3/share

This Call is closer to the current price and is the main source of premium for this strategy. As long as AMZN expiration price≤ US $250, the option will be completely invalid, and investors can retain all premium rights.

(2) Buy a higher execution price Call (risk protection)

• Buy Strike PriceK ₂ = 255Call

• Payment premiumUS $1/share

The role of this Call is when AMZN sees a big upswingLimit the maximum loss, so that the risk of the overall strategy is strictly capped.

(3) Call-side net income (per share)

Net premium = Sell Call − Buy Call = 2.3 − 1 =US $1.3/share

Initial net income

Since 1 lot of options = 100 shares:

• Net premium (per share):$1.3

• Initial net income (per contract): = 1.3 × 100 =$130/contract

The initial net income is the bear market call spread strategyMaximum potential profit。

3. Maximum profit

WhenAMZN Expiration Price ≤ $250Time:

• 250 Call and 255 Call are extra-price

• Both options lapse

Investors get maximum profits:

• Per share:$1.3

• Per contract:$130

4. Maximum loss

The largest loss occurs whenCall spread fully triggeredThe situation, that is, AMZN has risen significantly.

Strike spread width: = 255 − 250 =$5

Maximum loss (per share): = Strike spread − Net premium = 5 − 1.3 =$3.7/share

Maximum loss (per contract): = 3.7 × 100 =$370/contract

Conditions of occurrence:

• AMZN Expiration Price≥ $255

5. Break-even point

There is only one break-even point for bear call spreads:

Breakeven Price = Sell Call Strike Price + Net premium = 250 + 1.3 =$251.3

Maturity judgment rules:

• AMZN < $251.3 → Earnings for Investors

• AMZN = $251.3 → No Profit, No Loss

• AMZN > $251.3 → Investor losses

6. Risk and return characteristics

• Maximum benefit: $130/contract (limited)

• Maximum loss: $370/contract (limited)

• Profit-loss ratio: Gain: Loss ≈ 130: 370 ≈1: 2.85

7. Strategic characteristics and applicable situations

Strategy Characteristics

• Bearish or oscillating strategy

• The core assumption isAMZN won't rise significantly

• Receive time value by selling Call

• The maximum risk and maximum return can be clarified when opening a position

• There is no need for the stock price to fall, as long as it does not break through the key resistance level

Applicable situations

When investors judge:

• AMZN in the short termShock or slight decline

• Before expirationBreakout of $250-255 range unlikely

• Hope inIdentify the maximum riskObtain stable premium income on the premise of