To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟As $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  heads in Q4 earnings, the market is asking whether the memory upcycle will lift the entire semiconductor complex from TSMC to ASML, into a new phase of profitability?    Will AI orders continue to accelerate, pushing TSMC to new highs?  How much upside is left for memory names now that demand is sizzling hot?

The truth is, we are entering a rare moment where both sides of the semiconductor world - foundry and memory, are strengthening at the same time.

Foundry: TSMC and ASML are Riding the AI Wave 

TSMC remains the backbone of the global AI infrastructure.  Every model, every inference engine, every data centre upgrade - they all run through TSMC's leading edge nodes.  With 3nm ramping and 2nm on the horizon, TSMC isn't just participating in the AI boom, it is enabling it.

ASML, meanwhile, sits upstream as the irreplaceable supplier of EUV tools.  An EUV tool is the most advanced machine used to print tiny circuits on cutting edge chips.  Today ASML is the only company in the world that makes these machines.

If TSMC grows, ASML grows.  If AI accelerates, ASML accelerates too.  This is a symbiotic relationship powered by structural demand, not hype.

Memory: The Upcycle is Real and Still Early 

The memory cycle has turned decisively.  AI servers require massive amounts of HBM and supply remains tight.  Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are all benefiting from pricing power that the industry has not seen in years.

The question isn't whether the current memory cycle has upside.  It is how long that this cycle can run.  With AI workloads exploding in growth , the answer is: it is longer than most people expect.

Foundry vs Memory : Which Do I Favour?

Both foundry and memory segments have compelling tailwinds but they behave differently:

Foundry offers structural, long duration growth tied to AI, cloud and edge computing.

Memory offers cyclical torque.  When it runs, it really runs.

Choosing one means giving up the strengths of the other.

My Choice : SMH ETF

I favour $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$  because it captures the entire semiconductor value chain - the foundry, memory, equipment , design and AI enablers.

Instead of betting on which segment wins the next quarter, I am investing in the long term winners of the next decade.

SMH gives me exposure to:

TSMC's foundry dominance 

ASML's equipment monopoly 

Nvidia's AI leadership 

Micron's memory upcycle 

Broadcom, AMD and the rest of the semiconductor ecosystem.

In a world where AI demand is reshaping the entire semiconductor landscape, I do not want to choose sides.  I want to own the whole story.

Concluding Thoughts 

At the end of the day, I want to have my cake and eat it.  I want the structural growth of foundries and the cyclical torque of memory upcycle.  I want the stability of TSMC, the monopoly strength of ASML and the explosive upside of Micron, without having to choose just one segment.

That is why I anchor my semiconductor exposure in SMH.  It gives me the full stack : foundry, memory, equipment, design and AI accelerators.

In a world where the semiconductor ecosystem is becoming more interconnected and more essential, I would rather own the entire value chain than bet on a single winner.

SMH lets me participate in every wave of this cycle and the next.

That is exactly how I prefer to invest: with conviction, clarity and with the freedom to enjoy the whole cake, not just a slice.

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