To The Moon

$Strategy(MSTR)$ is facing a pivotal moment as it prepares to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, February 5, 2026, after market close.

The recent Bitcoin plunge below $75,000 has put the company's aggressive treasury model under its most intense stress test since the 2022 crypto winter. Here is an analysis of the upcoming results and the key metrics to watch.

Q4 2025 Earnings Outlook

The headline numbers for Q4 are expected to be messy due to the adoption of fair-value accounting for digital assets, which now forces the company to mark its Bitcoin holdings to market prices every quarter.

EPS Consensus: Analysts are projecting a significant loss, with estimates ranging from $-18.06 to $-19.03 per share. This is a massive swing from the $8.42 profit reported in Q3 2025, largely reflecting the ~23% decline in Bitcoin's price during the quarter.

Revenue Consensus: Expected at approximately $118.5M to $119.6M, a slight year-over-year decline (~1-2%).

The "Bitcoin Impact": Strategy holds 713,502 BTC (as of Feb 2026). With the average purchase price now sitting at $76,052, the recent dip to $74,000 has briefly pushed the company's total position into a multi-billion dollar unrealized loss.

As Strategy Inc. (MSTR) approaches its Q4 2025 report, looking back at the Q3 2025 results (reported Oct 30, 2024/2025) is essential for understanding the company's current high-stakes gamble. Q3 was a "victory lap" that fundamentally redefined the company as a "Digital Credit" powerhouse.

1. Q3 2025 Financial Summary

The Q3 report was characterized by massive GAAP profitability, almost entirely driven by the adoption of fair-value accounting for Bitcoin.

• Net Income: $2.8 Billion (swung from a $340M loss in Q3 2024).

• EPS: $8.42, which shattered the consensus estimate of a $-0.10 loss.

• Revenue: $128.7 Million (up 11% YoY), beating expectations. While the software business is slow-growing, it remained stable enough to support operations.

• Bitcoin Holdings: Ended the period with 640,808 BTC (now over 713k in 2026), representing roughly 3% of the total supply.

• BTC Yield: Achieved 26% YTD, a key internal metric measuring the increase in Bitcoin holdings relative to diluted shares.

2. The Guidance: The "21/21" Plan

In Q3, Michael Saylor and the management team issued bold guidance that became the "North Star" for the stock's valuation:

• The $42 Billion Goal: Management announced a plan to raise $21B in equity and $21B in fixed-income securities over three years (2025–2027) to buy more Bitcoin.

• Assumed BTC Price: Crucially, their full-year 2025 guidance of $80 EPS and $24B Net Income was explicitly predicated on Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end.

• BTC Yield Target: Reaffirmed a target of 30% for the full year 2025.

3. The "Hard Lessons" Learnt

The recent "Bitcoin Plunge" has turned Q3's optimistic guidance into a cautionary tale. Here are the three primary lessons:

Lesson 1: The "Asymmetric Sensitivity" of GAAP Earnings

Fair-value accounting is a double-edged sword. In Q3, it created a $2.8B profit because Bitcoin was rising. However, the lesson for Q4 and beyond is that the same rule will produce multi-billion dollar losses when Bitcoin drops, even if the company doesn't sell a single coin. Investors must look past the "Headline EPS" and focus on cash-flow-to-debt ratios.

Lesson 2: Guidance is "Aspirational," Not "Analytical"

Management’s guidance was based on Bitcoin hitting $150,000. With Bitcoin currently testing the $75,000 level, the "lesson" is that MSTR's financial projections are beta-dependent. When Bitcoin misses the price target, the company's projected "Operating Income" (which includes unrealized gains) evaporates instantly.

Lesson 3: The "Premium" Trap

In Q3, MSTR traded at a high premium to its Net Asset Value (NAV), allowing it to issue shares "accretively" (buying more BTC per share than it diluted). The lesson now is that the premium is fragile. As Bitcoin drops, the premium often collapses simultaneously, making it much harder—or even dilutive—to execute the "21/21" capital raise plan.

Next Step

The Q3 guidance set a very high bar for the "21/21" plan.

Key Metrics for Investors

Beyond the standard EPS and Revenue, MSTR investors should focus on these specialized "crypto-native" metrics:

Strategy (MSTR) Price Target

Based on 14 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for Strategy in the last 3 months. The average price target is $442.59 with a high forecast of $705.00 and a low forecast of $135.00. The average price target represents a 232.12% change from the last price of $133.26.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities

Earnings often act as a volatility catalyst for MSTR, which typically trades at 2-3x the beta of Bitcoin.

The "Discount to NAV" Play

Historically, when MSTR trades at a discount or a very low premium to its Bitcoin holdings (near 1.0 mNAV), it has been a "floor" for the stock. If the earnings call provides reassurance on debt servicing or a renewed buyback/accumulation plan, a "mean reversion" to its historical premium could trigger a sharp relief rally.

The Volatility Squeeze

Short interest has recently climbed to ~13%. A better-than-feared report (specifically regarding the software business's ability to cover interest payments) could trigger a short squeeze if Bitcoin also shows signs of bottoming simultaneously.

Downside Risks to Watch

• Liquidation Fears: While the company has no immediate debt maturities (most are 2027 or later), a "Sell" signal on technical indicators (like the MACD) suggests momentum is currently bearish.

• Dilution Concerns: If the company announces a massive new equity offering while the stock is at a low premium, it could be seen as "expensive" capital and further pressure the stock.

Summary Analysis

Strategy Inc. has transitioned from a software company to a leveraged Bitcoin holding company. The Q4 earnings will likely show a massive paper loss, but the real story lies in their BTC Yield and whether they can continue their "21/21" capital raise plan ($42B over 3 years) in a declining market.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) has demonstrated a performance pattern closely tied to the Bitcoin (BTC) 4-year cycle, essentially operating as a highly leveraged, active management proxy for Bitcoin. Since adopting its Bitcoin Treasury strategy in August 2020, MSTR has generally outperformed Bitcoin during bull phases through the use of convertible debt and equity issuance to buy more Bitcoin, but has suffered significantly steeper drawdowns during bear phases.

MSTR Performance vs. 4-Year Cycle Phases (2020-2026)

2020 (Halving Year/Accumulation): MSTR began its Bitcoin strategy in August 2020, riding the initial post-halving surge.

2021 (Post-Halving Bull): MSTR performed well as Bitcoin approached new highs, with its share price amplifying Bitcoin's moves.

2022 (Bear Market/Correction): MSTR experienced a 75% decline, its worst annual performance on record, as Bitcoin plunged.

2023–2024 (Pre-Halving/Halving Year): MSTR saw massive outperformance of Bitcoin, rising ~450% from Jan 2024 to mid-2025 as it aggressively increased holdings.

2025-2026 (Post-Peak Correction): As of early 2026, following a 2025 peak, MSTR is experiencing a severe downturn, having fallen ~56% over the past year. It is facing a "stress test" where its premium to NAV has compressed.

Key Performance Drivers

• Leverage & "BTC Yield": MSTR uses debt and equity to purchase Bitcoin. A key metric is "BTC Yield"—the percentage increase in Bitcoin per share. From 2020-2024, this created immense value. However, in late 2025/early 2026, increased share dilution resulted in negative or lower BTC-per-share growth.

• Amplified Volatility: MSTR acts as a "leveraged Bitcoin call option." It typically has a beta of 1.77× to 2× to Bitcoin. When Bitcoin drops (e.g., by 40% in late 2025), MSTR can drop much further (e.g., by 75%).

• Premium to NAV: MSTR often trades at a high premium (sometimes >100%) to the value of its Bitcoin holdings (Net Asset Value). During the 2026 correction, this premium has compressed.

Performance Comparison (Aug 2020 – Aug 2025)

• MSTR: ~3,000%+ surge.

• Bitcoin: ~900%+ surge.

• Note: While MSTR outperformed, its maximum drawdown was ~81%, higher than Bitcoin's.

As of February 2026, MSTR is in a correction phase, with its stock declining eight straight months from a Nov 2024 high of ~$540 to under $150 by Feb 2026.

Summary

As Strategy Inc. (MSTR) approaches its Q4 2025 earnings on February 5, 2026, the market is bracing for a high-volatility event that serves as a stress test for its "Bitcoin Treasury" model.

The Earnings Setup

The headline figures will likely be jarring. Under new fair-value accounting rules, Strategy must mark its 712,647 BTC to market. Since Bitcoin plunged roughly 25% during the quarter—dipping toward $74,000—analysts expect a massive GAAP net loss. Consensus estimates for **EPS** sit near **$-18.06**, a stark reversal from the $8.42 profit in Q3. Revenue is projected to remain stagnant at approximately $119.6 million, reflecting a maturing legacy software business that now primarily serves to fund the company's $800 million in annual interest and dividend obligations.

Three Critical Focal Points

The "Discount" Threshold: Strategy has recently traded at a discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV) for the first time in months. Investors will watch if the company uses its $2.19 billion cash reserve to defend its share price or double down on BTC purchases.

BTC Yield Sustainability: Management’s goal of a 30% BTC Yield for 2025 is under pressure. If the company slowed its pace of acquisition due to market conditions, it could signal a shift from aggressive growth to defensive preservation.

The "21/21" Execution: Investors want updates on the $42 billion capital raise plan. With the "premium" to BTC holdings compressed, issuing new equity becomes more dilutive, potentially stalling their acquisition engine.

The Trading Opportunity

Short-term traders are eyeing a volatility play. MSTR currently has a high short interest (~13%), and the stock is down nearly 70% from its highs. If the earnings call provides a clear path for refinancing debt or if Bitcoin shows a "double bottom" recovery at $75,000, a short squeeze or mean-reversion toward its historical NAV premium could trigger a sharp rally. Conversely, any hint of liquidity strain regarding interest payments could lead to further capitulation.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Strategy would be able to provide a positive updates to the “21/21” execution and whether Strategy can continue to hold its basis BTC price with BTC volatility continuing.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.