To The Moon

Gold, silver attempt rebound for second day in a row as investors buy the dip. But is the bull market already starting or we will still see periodic dramatic pullback.

The precious metals market is currently in the middle of a "violent reset." After a historic crash in late January—where gold fell nearly 25% and silver plummeted over 40% in just three sessions—we are seeing a significant "buy-the-dip" campaign.

Whether this is a safe time to add to your Gold ETF depends on your timeframe: the long-term fundamentals look robust, but the short-term "technical floor" is still being tested.

The Rebound: Is the Bull Market Back?

Most institutional analysts (J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, UBS) believe the structural bull market is intact and that the recent crash was a "cleansing" of over-leveraged positions rather than a change in the primary trend.

• Institutional Targets: J.P. Morgan recently upgraded its end-of-2026 target to $6,300/oz, and Deutsche Bank maintains a $6,000 outlook.

• The Drivers: The "debasement trade" continues. Central banks are projected to buy roughly 800 tons of gold in 2026 to diversify away from the US Dollar, and ETF inflows hit $4.4 billion in early February, signaling that institutional money is moving back in.

• The "Reset": Analysts at ANZ and OCBC describe the recent drop as a healthy reset. By flushing out "weak hands" via CME margin hikes, the market is now considered structurally healthier for the next leg up.

Will There Be More Pullbacks?

The short answer is yes. While the recovery has been sharp (reclaiming the $5,000 level for gold and $90 for silver), the market remains highly volatile.

• Resistance Levels: Gold faces immediate resistance near $5,145 and $5,213. If it fails to break these, we could see another round of profit-taking.

• The "Warsh" Factor: Market jitters regarding the next Fed Chair nomination (Kevin Warsh) and a potentially more hawkish monetary policy could trigger periodic corrections.

• The Floor: Analysts suggest a technical floor for gold around $4,800, but a move down to $4,400 isn't ruled out if the dollar strengthens significantly.

Strategy for Gold ETFs: To Buy or Not?

If you are looking at a 1–2 year horizon, the consensus suggests that current prices are a "generational entry point." However, for those worried about further volatility:

1. Staggered Entry (DCA): Rather than a lump-sum investment, a systematic approach (buying a set amount weekly or monthly) is highly recommended. This mitigates the risk of a "fake-out" rebound followed by another dip.

2. Watch the $5,000 Mark: If gold holds decisively above $5,000, it confirms that the "dip buyers" have won the tug-of-war against the "panic sellers."

3. Diversification Check: Most advisors suggest keeping gold at 5–10% of your total portfolio. If the recent price swings have pushed you way beyond that, it might be better to hold rather than add more.

As of early 2026, gold and the S&P 500 have exhibited a rare, simultaneous surge, with gold outpacing stocks in 2025 (64% gain vs 16% for S&P 500).

As of February 2026, the precious metals market has become a high-stakes arena. Following the "violent reset" in late January, gold has rebounded to trade around the $5,000 mark, while silver is showing extreme volatility, recently reclaiming the $90 range.

Choosing the right ETF now is about balancing liquidity (for quick exits if the pullback resumes) against expense ratios (to maximize gains if the bull market continues).

Top-Rated Gold ETFs

For gold, the "mini" versions of major funds are currently the best value for individual investors, offering the same physical backing at a fraction of the cost.

$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$

Top-Rated Silver ETFs

Silver is significantly more volatile (often referred to as "gold on rockets"). Because silver storage is bulkier and more expensive, expense ratios are generally higher than gold.

$iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ $Global X Silver Miners ETF(SIL)$

Note on Returns: The 1-year returns are exceptionally high due to the historic rally that peaked in early 2026. While silver miners (SIL) outperformed physical silver recently, they also tend to crash harder during pullbacks.

Pro-Tip for "Buying the Dip"

If you are worried about the "periodic dramatic pullbacks" mentioned earlier, look at IAUM or GLDM. Their lower share prices (often 1/10th or 1/100th of the full-size GLD/IAU) make it much easier to use Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). You can buy 1 or 2 shares every week without needing thousands of dollars to balance your position.

Summary

As of February 5, 2026, the precious metals market is undergoing a historic "violent reset." After a staggering crash in late January—where gold plummeted from record highs of $5,600 to near $4,400 and silver crashed over 30% in a single day—we are seeing a sharp two-day rebound.

The Rebound: Bull Market or Dead Cat Bounce?

Gold has reclaimed the psychological $5,000 floor, and silver has surged back toward $90. Most institutional analysts from J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs maintain that the long-term bull market is intact, recently upgrading end-of-year 2026 gold targets to as high as $6,300/oz.

The consensus is that this wasn't a trend reversal, but a positioning-driven reset. The crash was triggered by:

• Forced Liquidations: Massive margin call hikes by the CME forced leveraged traders to sell.

• Political Shifts: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, seen as a hawkish move, briefly boosted the dollar.

• Froth Removal: The market was "exponentially overbought" after rising 70% in 2025.

Should You Keep Adding to Gold ETFs?

While the long-term outlook remains bullish due to central bank buying (projected at 800 tons for 2026) and "debasement trades," the short-term path will not be linear.

• Periodic Pullbacks: Expect "dramatic pullbacks" to continue. Resistance is currently heavy near $5,150. If gold fails to hold $5,000, a retest of the $4,400 support is possible.

• The Verdict: It remains a good time to add, but caution is mandatory. Most experts advise against "lump-sum" buying into this volatility. Instead, use Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) via low-cost ETFs like IAUM or GLDM. This allows you to build a position while keeping "dry powder" in case of another margin-driven flush.

Summary

The structural drivers—geopolitical tension, central bank diversification, and industrial silver deficits—remain unchanged. The recent crash effectively "cleansed" the market of speculative froth, making this a potentially high-value entry point for long-term holders, provided they can stomach continued short-term turbulence.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Gold could continue with the “debasement trade” driver, if so, we might see the return of the bull market.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.