To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟There are market shocks you forget in a week and then there are the ones that remain in your memory.  April 2025 was one of those.  When the tariff announcement blindsided global markets, we watched nearly USD 1 Trillion evaporate in a single session.  Tech collapsed.  Semiconductors cratered.  Investors ran for exits like the floor was on fire.

Fast forward to today and the deja vu is unmistakable. 

6 straight sessions of software selling.  USD 830 billion erased since January 28.  A sector down from its October highs.  Anthropic unveils new automation tools for legal work flows and suddenly the entire software universe trades like its margins just got rewritten.

A Goldman tracked software index plunges 6%.  The Nasdaq 100 sheds USD 285 billion across software, fintech, asset managers.

Screens are red again. Commentators are panicking again.  But just like April 2025, the real story isn't fear.  It is rotation.

Panic Selling or Repricing 

This isn't the death of software.  It is the market doing what it always does when a new narrative hits.  Just like a kid with ADHD, it overreacts.  It exaggerates.  It emotionalises.

AI disrupts, Yes.  AI compresses, Yes.  But software does not just disappear.  It adapts, monetises and reinvents.

Sentiment shocks don't resolve in a day.  In fact software stocks may even dip further.  But panic selling?  It never lasts.

Meanwhile XLP ETF Quietly Breaks 52 Week High

While Tech melts, Consumer Staples are having their moment.  It is the classic safe harbour when volatility spikes. 

My  $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP)$ position is doing exactly what it is designed to do:   Defend, Stabilise and Compensate.

XLP : The Defensive Engine of the Market

XLP is the largest consumer staples ETF in the market with USD 16.8 billion in assets under management.  XLP provides a broad, cost effective exposure to major US consumer staples companies with a low expense ratio of just 0.08%.

XLP top holdings include Walmart, Costco, Proctor & Gamble, Coca Cola, Philip Morris, PepsiCo, Colgate Palmolive, Altria Group,  Mondelez International and Monster Beverage Corp.

Total number of stocks : 36 with the top 10 holdings making up 62% of the fund.

Top Holdings of XLP: The Steady Hands of XLP

These companies don't care about AI headlines.  They sell essentials.  They are cash rich and they endure.

Walmart $Wal-Mart(WMT)$  is now a USD 1 Trillion titan, proving that Staples can scale like tech.

COSTCO $Costco(COST)$  membership model and cult loyalty proves unstoppable.

Procter & Gamble $Procter & Gamble(PG)$  is a global consumer powerhouse with pricing power.

Coca Cola$Coca-Cola(KO)$  is an iconic brand with stable global demand.

PepsiCo $Pepsi(PEP)$  is far more than a soft drink company.  It is one of the most diversified consumer staples giants on the planet with a portfolio that stretches across beverages, snacks and even restaurants like KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell.  These restaurant chains were later spun off into Yum Brands.

This is market rotation in real time.  Money is leaving high value software and entering stable, cash rich recession proof giants.

My View: This Isn't Fear.  This is Rebalancing

The market isn't collapsing.  It is recalibrating. 

Investors are rediscovering the value of certainty : Cash flow, pricing power, predictability, dividends and essentials. 

For me it is business as usual. I will continue to dollar cost average into my favourite index ETFs such as SPYM which tracks the S&P500 Index and STI ETF which tracks the top Singapore bluechip companies.

That is how I build my portfolio - not in rallies but in the storms. 

Concluding Thoughts : The Buffett Reminder

As Warren Buffett once said,  "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful."

Being greedy when others are fearful isn't about YOLO buying every dip.  It is about emotional discipline.  It is about staying invested when the crowd is running.  It is about continuing my plan when the market tries to shake it out of me.  It is about trusting the power of compounding more than headlines.

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