To The Moon

During Tuesday's session,$Micron Technology (MU) $Shares fell under pressure, falling about 2.8% to about $383.5 by mid-trading, with trading volume slowing from the daily average. This round of corrections is mainly affected by industry competition and supply chain news, and investors are repricing the company's prospects in the high-end AI memory market. According to the latest report released by semiconductor industry research organization SemiAnalysis, U.S. chip giant NVIDIA plans to exclude Micron Technology's fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4) from the supply chain in the first year of mass production of its next-generation Rubin architecture GPUs. outside. According to the report, there is currently no indication that Nvidia will purchase HBM4 from Micron. The main reason is that Micron's latest HBM4 engineering samples are still lower than the target specifications in terms of key performance indicators-pin rate, while the sample rates of competitors Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have reached about 10Gbps, and the technical gap is obvious.

SemiAnalysis predicts that Nvidia's future HBM4 memory supply will be dominated by Korean companies, with SK Hynix accounting for about 70% of the share and Samsung accounting for about 30%. This has triggered market concerns about Micron's competitiveness and future market share in the high-end AI memory market, and has become a driving force for its stock price. The direct factor of the decline under pressure. Nevertheless, Micron's fundamentals still show resilience. Its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results exceeded market expectations, and revenue and earnings per share were both higher than analyst forecasts, indicating resilient performance against the backdrop of memory market recovery.

In the long run, market statistics show that Micron's stock price has risen by more than 300% in the past year, far exceeding the performance of the broader market. Many institutions are still optimistic about its competitive position and future growth potential in the fields of DRAM and high-bandwidth memory. However, in the short term, the adjustment of the high-end memory supply chain pattern and the leading advantage of competitors in technical indicators will become risk points that investors pay close attention to.

MU Bull Put Credit Spread Strategy

1. Strategy structure

Investors in$Micron Technology (MU) $Build a Bull Put Spread strategy on options.

This strategy is a long/volatile strategy that collects premium, limited returns, and limited risks. It is suitable for judging that the stock price can hold the lower support area before expiration.

1 ️ ⃣ Sell higher strike price Put (main source of income)

• Sell 1 Put with strike price K ₂ = $352.5

• Premium received = $3.15/share

This Put is closer to the current price and is a major source of revenue for Strategic premium. As long as the expiration price is ≥ $352.5, the option expires and the investor retains all premium rights.

2 ️ ⃣ Buy lower strike price Put (control downside risk)

• Buy 1 Put with strike price K ₁ = $347.5

• Premium paid = $2.45/share

This Put is used to limit the risk when the stock price falls sharply and avoid the amplified loss caused by naked selling Put.

3 ️ ⃣ Put-side net income (per share)

Net premium revenue was:

3.15 − 2.45 = $0.70/share

This is the maximum available benefit of this strategy.

2. Maximum profit

When the MU expiration price is ≥ $352.5:

• Both Put are out-of-the-money

• All options lapsed

Investors retain all net premium:

• Maximum profit (per share) = $0.70

• Per contract (100 shares) = $70

Conditions of occurrence: Expiration price ≥ 352.5 USD

3. Maximum loss

When the expiration price is ≤ $347.5:

• Both Put are in-the-money

• Strike spreads are fully locked

Calculation:

Strike spread = 352.5 − 347.5 = $5

Maximum loss (per share) = Strike spread − Net premium

= 5 − 0.70

= $4.30/share

• Maximum loss per contract = $430

Conditions of occurrence: Expiration price ≤ 347.5 USD

4. Break-even point

Formula:

Sell Put Strike Price − Net premium

= 352.5 − 0.70

= $351.80

Maturity judgment:

• Price ≥ 351. 80 → Profit

• Price = 351.80 → No profit, no loss

• Price ≤ 351.80 → Loss

5. Strategic characteristics and applicable situations

Strategy Characteristics

• Clear bullish/shock strategy

• Charge premium structure, time value benefits investors

• Maximum profit and maximum loss are determined after opening a position

• Compared with naked selling Put, the downside risk is capped

Applicable situations

When investors judge:

• The stock price has obvious support near 352.5

• It is difficult to fall below 347.5 in the short term

• Hope to obtain stable income by selling time value

• Or establish a closing premium strategy when the implied volatility is high

The essence of this structure is:

"Use the risk of $4.30 to gain a return of $0.70",

The winning rate is usually high, but the profit-loss ratio is small, which is suitable for a robust strategy under volatile or bullish expectations.