To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 16Feb2026)

Asian Market Closures for Chinese New Year

Here is wishing all Chinese friends a blessed Chinese New Year. In observance of this festival, several major Asian markets will be closed during the upcoming week. China will be closed for the entire week, from Monday to Friday. Hong Kong will observe closures from Tuesday through Thursday, while Singapore will be closed from Tuesday to Wednesday for the Chinese New Year festivities.

U.S. Public Holiday

America will have a public holiday on Monday in celebration of Washington’s Birthday.

Key Upcoming Economic Data Releases

• Durable Goods Orders: This important indicator serves as a key barometer for consumer activity within the United States.

• Core PCE Price Index: The release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the most closely watched economic event. Last year-over-year reading was 2.8%. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred indicator for inflation, it will be a significant factor in the next interest rate decision.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be published, offering insight into the context and considerations for the upcoming interest rate decision, as well as providing the Federal Reserve’s market outlook.

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: The latest release will reveal whether the manufacturing sector can recover from the previous index value of 12.6, which indicated a contraction.

• Crude Oil Inventories: Updates on crude oil inventories are expected. A drawdown larger than anticipated is typically interpreted as bullish news, reflecting producers’ anticipation of increased market demand.

• GDP (Quarter-on-Quarter, Q4): The preliminary GDP figure for the fourth quarter will be released soon, with the previous quarter’s growth at 4.4%. Optimism has been expressed by President Trump regarding significant GDP growth over the next three years.

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Previously at 52.4, this index suggests ongoing growth in the global manufacturing sector.

• S&P Global Services PMI: The prior reading was 52.7, indicating growth in global services demand.

• New Home Sales: The latest figure was 737,000, providing a useful reference for assessing the health of real estate demand and the broader industry in the United States.

Earnings Calendar (16Feb2026) - Klarna (BNPL)

I am interested in the recent earnings reports and performance of Moody’s, Klarna, DoorDash, John Deere, and Walmart.

Klarna: Leading Buy Now Pay Later Platform

Let us look at Klarna, the leading buy now, pay later (BNPL) platform.

Over the past year, Klarna’s stock price has experienced a significant decline, falling by 60.5%.

According to technical analysis, Klarna currently holds a strong sell rating. However, analyst sentiment remains positive, with a buy recommendation. The price target is set at $42.59, which suggests a potential upside of 135.16%.

Revenue Growth

Klarna demonstrated robust revenue growth, increasing from $2.2 billion in 2023 to $3 billion on a trailing twelve-month (TTM) basis. This positive trajectory highlights the company’s ability to expand its top line despite overall market challenges.

Operating Income

Despite higher revenues, Klarna continued to report operating losses. The company ended 2023 with an operating loss of $322 million, while the TTM figures show a reduced loss of $225 million, indicating some improvement in operational efficiency.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS trends over the past three years have fluctuated. Klarna posted an EPS of -$0.66, followed by a slight positive at $0.01, and then a return to negative territory with -$0.30. These figures reflect ongoing volatility in profitability.

Total Debt

Klarna’s total debt has risen notably, going from $472 million in 2024 to $791 million on a TTM basis. This increase suggests that the company has taken on more financial obligations, potentially to support growth or manage operational needs.

Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow showed significant improvement, rising from $723 million in 2023 to $1,260 million TTM. This positive movement indicates stronger liquidity and cash generation capabilities, which may help offset the company’s losses and increased debt.

Klarna is seen as the leader of the BNPL sector with strong revenue growth over recent years. The earnings can be used to “project” the outlook of this growing sector.

For the next quarter, analysts expect -0.02 USD in earnings per share and 1.07 B USD in revenue (TradingView). From the above data, I prefer to stay away from the company till it demonstrates stable profitability.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (16Feb2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting below the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and a bearish trend in the short-term. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at -0.02. This reading indicates that there is more selling pressure than buying, especially after crossing the middle “0” line.

More Technical Analysis

From the daily interval technical analysis, a “Strong Sell” rating is recommended. For the 5 indicators that recommend a “Buy” rating, 16 indicators show a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The latest rating (36) shows a dominant “Fear” sentiment in the market.

From the above, there could be a “breakout” coming for the Fear/Greed index.

Given the above data, I am leaning towards a “Bearish” outlook for the coming week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (16Feb2026)

US serious delinquencies are at CRISIS levels: Transition into serious delinquency (90+ days) for student loans spiked to a record 16.19% in Q4 2025. This is nearly DOUBLE the levels seen after the Great Financial Crisis. At the same time, credit card delinquencies are at 7.13%, the highest in 14 years and near the post-Financial Crisis peak. Similarly, auto loan delinquencies stand at 2.95%, almost matching all-time highs. Americans are defaulting on their debt at an alarming pace. - X user Global Markets Investor.

The CEO of Microsoft AI says: “Most, if not all, office jobs—like lawyers, accountants, project managers, and marketing officers—will be fully automated by AI within 12–18 months.”

Former $GOOGL CEO Eric Schmidt: “We’re running out of electricity. I testified in congress we need 92 gigawatts more power, the average nuclear power plant is 1.5 gigawatts, you see the problem”

The entire Magnificent 7 is now negative YTD.

Solar is expected to dominate the renewable energy space - Elon Musk

The post warns of a looming financial crisis, anchored in a March 2025 Federal Reserve study revealing U.S. life insurers’ below-investment-grade debt exposure now exceeds their 2007 subprime mortgage holdings, with private credit defaults climbing to 5.6% as of late 2025.

U.S. container imports totaled 2,318,722 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in January, exceeding the historical average for the month. Imports from China totaled 771,093 TEUs, down 22.7% from January 2025. - Reuters

US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS OFFICIALLY CONFIRMED

Microsoft’s AI chief just said they’re pursuing “true self-sufficiency” and cutting their dependence on OpenAI. $13 billion invested. Now they’re abandoning the sinking ship - X user NIK

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says that if US debt payments eventually grow out of control. The dollar will be abandoned because it essentially turns into monopoly money. - X user Crypto Rover

Margin debt likely surpassed $1.3 trillion last month

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has said that President Trump’s policies could spark “capital wars,” with countries and investors pulling back from U.S. assets, per BI

My Investing Muse

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

26% of the 7.5 million unemployed in the US actively searching for work have been looking for more than six months, per FT. The U.S. labour market faced a significant setback in January 2026, with employers announcing 108,435 job cuts—the highest January total since the Great Recession in 2009. - X user unusual whales

FedEx plans to close over 475 stations due to Network 2.0 Plan - X user MacroEdge

Salesforce lays off nearly 1,000 employees in early 2026 ahead of Q4 earnings report - X user MacroEdge

Are the jobs in India permanent? Will the jobs be replaced by AI over the years?

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9 large companies filed for bankruptcy in the US last week. This brings the 3-week average to 6, the highest rate since the 2020 pandemic. This means at least 18 companies with liabilities at or above $50 million have gone bankrupt over the last 3 weeks. In the past, only the brief post-2001 recession period, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2020 pandemic saw a higher rate of large bankruptcies. To put this into perspective, the peak this century was a 3-week average of 9, seen in 2009. The bankruptcy wave is accelerating. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

TARGET CUTS ABOUT 500 JOBS IN DISTRIBUTION CENTERS: CNBC

NIKE’S CONVERSE IS PREPARING LAYOFFS AND RESTRUCTURING AS SHOE SALES SLUMP 30%, WITH STAFF TOLD TO WORK FROM HOME AND SENIOR EXECUTIVES EXITING UNDER TURNAROUND PRESSURE. - First Squawk

Target to cut hundreds of corporate jobs - X user MacroEdge

Worker shortage could hurt AI construction boom, BlackRock said.

My Final Thoughts

Market after 13Feb2026

Market Leadership and Future Rally Potential

With most of the earnings reports from the “Magnificent 7” companies now completed, questions arise about which entities might drive the market to new highs. The market itself remains unpredictable and capable of delivering unexpected outcomes. Many participants are hoping for an upward movement, reflecting widespread optimism and reliance on continued market growth.

Service Pricing and the Evolution of AI

Some services have been priced at a premium, without recognising their transition into commodities. Artificial intelligence is still in its early stages, yet its impact is already significant. This raises questions about the future of enterprise solutions, such as SAP and Salesforce, and how they will adapt as AI becomes increasingly integrated and widespread.

Limits of Monetary Policy and Cultural Dynamics

We can print money. However, we cannot print energy, infrastructure, supply chain and respect. The conflict with China is not over trade, military or innovation but rather one of culture. The Art of the Deal may not work with cultures where respect is the main currency.

U.S.-Iran Tensions and Potential Implications

Recent developments indicate that President Trump is preparing American military forces for a potential conflict with Iran. This situation raises several important concerns. First, any miscalculation in military strategy could inadvertently unite America’s adversaries, leading them to align themselves with Iran, even if such alignment is not their original intention. There is also a notable risk that this conflict could be misinterpreted within the broader Islamic world, potentially placing the United States in opposition to Islamic nations, regardless of its actual objectives. Furthermore, the timing is particularly sensitive, as the Muslim community will be observing Ramadan, a sacred month of fasting. Military actions during this period could negatively impact America’s desired outcomes and escalate tensions further.

Domestic Issues: Justice, Social Sentiment, and Economic Concerns

Updates regarding the Epstein files reveal that delays in the pursuit of justice can lead to undesirable consequences for society. There are reports suggesting that younger generations in America are experiencing a sense of hopelessness, largely driven by challenges related to affordability. This growing disillusionment poses a threat to the stability of the current capitalist and democratic systems in the United States. The emergence of a Muslim socialist leader in New York underscores the reality of shifting social and political dynamics, which warrant careful attention.

AI Investment and Infrastructure Requirements

It is rumoured that four major companies within the so-called “Magnificent 7” are planning to allocate approximately $700 billion in capital expenditures for AI-related investments in 2026. This trend merits close monitoring, as the scope of these investments extends beyond the financial aspect. To support such significant advancements in artificial intelligence, there must also be a comprehensive ecosystem that includes energy grids, maintenance, a skilled labour force, infrastructure, and appropriate policy frameworks.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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