Following Q4 2025 results, UBS lowered its price target on Amazon to $301 from $311 after the company issued FY2026 capital expenditure guidance of $200 billion, well above expectations of $150 billion. While the elevated spending surprised the market, I view it as a strategic investment into long-term growth, particularly in AI infrastructure and cloud capacity. UBS projects AWS growth to accelerate to 38% in 2026, doubling from 19% in 2025, with mid-30% expansion potentially sustained through 2027. This reinforces my conviction that short-term margin pressure may translate into stronger long-term earnings power and valuation upside.
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