Yesterday Once More
SPY has hit the first pullback target at 670. Whether it continues down to 650 next is anyone's guess.
The Israel-Iran conflict could still escalate — or de-escalate. De-escalation leads to a bounce. Escalation leads to more downside. Trying to predict the trajectory of a chaotic event like this is a fool's game.
But one thing's clear: downside feels easier than upside right now. Tail risk is getting priced in big time.
Volatility is spiking. Puts are expensive. Look at SPY flows — traders are leaning into 0DTE and weekly puts to hedge crash risk. Short-dated, sharp, directional.
This environment? Not ideal for the usual sell-put routine. Probably stays that way through mid-April — about 4–5 weeks, per Trump's own estimate.
Options price risk. When risk stops behaving within a normal range, selling it becomes less attractive.
For holders, though? Collars make sense now. Sell calls, buy puts. Zero-cost protection.
$NVDA$
A large call position rolled: March 160 call $NVDA 20260320 160.0 CALL$ rolled to June 150 call $NVDA 20260515 150.0 CALL$ — 87k contracts.
Translation: trading center of gravity shifting lower by ~10 points. From 180 to 170.
I’m a bit more optimistic. Think NVDA drifts back to 180 before next earnings.
The 155 put whale closed Monday. Weekly OTM puts can’t handle a bounce. Those betting on downside this week rolled to next week. If SPY tags 650, NVDA likely follows to 160.
For the next 4–5 weeks: sell calls on rips. Just don’t get greedy with low strikes — gamma squeeze risk is real. Stick to 190+.
$QQQ$
Next week’s expected range: 575–595. Call it 580.
$USO$
A 10k sell-call order got squeezed Monday $USO 20260320 100.0 CALL$ . Rolled to same expiry, strike bumped to 110 $USO 20260320 110.0 CALL$ .
If you're thinking short vol — maybe, but not my preference right now. See intro.
$XLE$
Clean flows:
Puts betting oil drops to 52.5 by mid-April: $XLE 20260417 52.5 PUT$
Another put sale saying 49.5 holds through H1: $XLE 20260417 52.5 PUT$ (same strike, different trade)
Upside punt: $XLE 20260417 68.0 CALL$
If you're long, take profits. Anything else? Luck-based.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
