Bear Case on $HIMS: Valuation Risk, GLP-1 Threat, and Slowing Growth
Pure $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ delulu copium.
Bearish catalysts:
1) Still trading at 32 P/E, despite the core profit driver under attack. If GLP1s go to zero, profits fall 80-120%. Overvalued.
2) Growth is not "sandbagged", its the opposite. $HIMS 2026 and 2030 guidances are aggressive and unachievable without M&A.
3) Newly acquired international segments are stinkers and unprofitable. Everyone knows that $HIMS is the sucker to sell to. Watch for international growth to suffer because of "macro and War in Iran" (Excuses).
4) Peptide approval is not the catalyst HIMS hopes for. It's the opposite, regulators are talking of banning the sale of certain peptides and stricter regulations.
5) Wearables is just delusion, HIMS can't compete with $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$ and all the 1000s of tech start-ups.
6) Traction from newly formed verticals will be slow, whilst the core is decelerating.
7) Lawsuit- potential settlement, will not be a catalyst, this is the biggest delusion. HIMS is fckd, and $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ will take them to the cleaners. Any settlement will involve the ban of sale of compounded GLP1s and huge financial settlements. There is a 0% chance that NVO works with $HIMS again.
8) Shorts won't get vaporised, they will print profits.
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