To The Moon

Last week, we were expecting the situation in the Middle East to stay within a relatively controllable range and, as a result, for financial markets to remain broadly stable. However, judging from last Friday’s and early this week’s surge in oil prices, even though there are still no clear signs that the war has formally widened, the risk of it spinning out of control is already on the table. If, at this critical juncture, Trump still cannot come up with a credible exit plan, both financial markets and geopolitics may be hit by a new tsunami.

The impact of oil prices on the global financial system and on people’s daily lives via inflation is self-evident. Yet in just a little over a week, we’ve seen a 60% spike in prices, while the key Strait of Hormuz remains in a state of abnormal, semi‑blocked transit. Even if crude stops climbing from here, as long as high prices are sustained for a few more weeks against the backdrop of near‑disrupted flows through this chokepoint, many countries could find themselves in deep trouble.

Even the United States, now a net exporter of crude, will be hit by the inflationary wave that higher oil brings. Trump’s easing plans may instead run into renewed rate‑hike pressure. At the same time, Middle Eastern countries will struggle to do their usual “oil for food, water and cash” trade, which will weaken the capital‑market funding that supports them. AI‑related assets already look like castles in the air; once funding gets pulled and can no longer be sustained, U.S. equities could tumble. At that point, never mind the midterm elections—Trump could go down in history as a “national villain.”

In reality, there isn’t much time left for the U.S. and for Trump. If they cannot find a face‑saving yet reasonably plausible way to de‑escalate the Iran situation this week, the only remaining path may be to “smash the pot and let it fall,” doubling down until the bitter end. But sending in ground troops is unlikely to deliver a quick, decisive win; it would simply prolong the conflict and magnify the losses. As for more extreme measures, bombing and striking water and infrastructure would invite similar‑scale retaliation and make life even harder for the Gulf monarchies. Dropping a nuclear weapon would not only render the region a write‑off, it would fundamentally change the structure of global warfare.​​

All of these paths and consequences are already laid out in front of us, and they were exactly why we previously thought a rational exit remained possible. Now that things have gone wrong again and again, whether this last chance can be seized is entirely up to Trump.

As with silver earlier, technicals have largely lost their relevance for crude at this point. Purely headlines and market sentiment can drive everything. If oil prices fail to pull back meaningfully this week, it may be wise to prepare for a full retreat. When that day comes, both risk assets and traditional havens could face the risk of being marked down to “cabbage prices” in a straight line.

$黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2604(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2604(1OZmain)$ $白银主连 2605(SImain)$ $迷你白银主连 2605(QImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$

Aside from oil, Japanese equities are also flashing a clear warning, and the Nikkei often acts as an early indicator for U.S. stocks. If the index continues to trade below 51,600, there is a risk it could slide back toward the 42,000 area; in a similar vein, if the Nasdaq decisively breaks below 23,900, a return to the 17,000 zone becomes a real possibility.

$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ $纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ $纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ $SP500指数主连 2603(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2603(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指数2603(MES2603)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$

In short, risk assets have entered a very dangerous phase, and if we don’t see any signs of easing this week, the best choice may be to grab your bucket and run. A wise person does not stand under a crumbling wall—especially when the threat level is this high.

$道琼斯(.DJI)$ $道琼斯ETF(DIA)$ $三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares(UDOW)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2603(YMmain)$

On strategy: last week’s long EUR position from 1.1710 was stopped out at 1.1600. For the dollar, I still believe the current rally is hard to sustain, but since there are no fresh developments on either the news side or the technical side, I’m not placing any new orders this week and will wait for the next opportunity to short the dollar.

As for gold, last week’s short was filled at an average of 5,300. Gold has not benefited from the geopolitical backdrop this time; instead, it has come under pressure and moved lower. Even so, given how quickly conditions can change, I’ve decided to move the stop up to breakeven, while keeping the targets unchanged at 4,870 and 4,490 (closing half at each level).

Beyond that, as discussed in the main text, this week is a key inflection point and anything can happen, so the focus is on waiting for the situation to become clearer before making big moves.