Elliott Wave Perspective: Assessing Oil’s (CL) Upside Amid War-Driven Volatility
The short-term Elliott Wave outlook in Crude Oil (CL) indicates that the cycle from the December 16, 2025 low has advanced as a five-wave impulse. From that low, wave (1) concluded at $66.48, followed by a corrective pullback in wave (2) which ended at $61.12. The commodity then resumed its upward trajectory in wave (3), reaching $77.98, before another retracement in wave (4) that settled at $71.65. The final leg, wave (5), extended sharply and terminated at $119.40, thereby completing wave ((1)) at a higher degree. With this structure in place, the market has now entered a corrective phase in wave ((2)), designed to retrace the cycle that began in December 2025.
The internal subdivision of this correction is unfolding as a zigzag pattern. From the $119.40 peak, wave (A) declined impulsively and ended at $76.73. Subsequently, wave (B) has begun to rally, working to correct the cycle from the March 9, 2026 high. This rally is expected to be temporary, setting the stage for another downward move in wave (C).
Near term, as long as the pivot at $119.40 holds, the rally is projected to fail in either three or seven swings. Such a failure would confirm the continuation of the larger degree correction against the December 16, 2025 low. Traders should therefore remain cautious, recognizing that the prevailing structure favors another leg lower before a sustainable recovery can emerge.
Oil (CL) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart
Oil (CL) Elliott Wave Chart
CL Elliott Wave Video:
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