$SPY Repeats 2025 Pattern: Distribution Phase Points to $651–$635 Test
1 year ago, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ broke DISTRIBUTION PHASE on Feb 28, 2025. It then dropped from $580 to $480.
This year on March 10, this phase is confirmed by a massive rejection at $677.
I'll explain what triggered the breakdown and then where I think the SPY will bounce. SPY most likely (80%) would have bottomed in March/April 2026. US mid-terms is coming, the war can't drag on too long and Trump knows this.
5 triggers cuasing this breakdown:
1. US and IRAN war dragging on longer then 1 month
2. March 18 FOMC will be hawkish (no rate cuts and too much uncertainty)
3. US labor market clearly cooling off becuase of AI.
4. AI uncertainty and its impacts on labour
5. War causing inflation to spike and oil/commodities to spike
Make sure to look at key levels here on SPY and compare it to the TEXT book version of this DISTRIBUTION phase.
- 60% we test $651.
- 30% we get to $635 and under
- 10% we get to $620 and under (this would be 10% correction)
This war could go on for at least 3 months then US would be in trouble because oil will keep spiking about $100 US/bbl and this will cause millions of Americans to spend more on LIFE.
What are your thoughts?
For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.
🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now
Find out more here.
Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.
Other helpful links:
-
💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉
-
How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
