$SPY Triggers Sixth 200SMA Event as History Points to +35% Bounce
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ closed below the 200-day SMA 6 times in history.
Every single time, it recovered.
Here's every time it broke, what caused it, and the return after it crossed back above 200SMA again:
🔴 Sep 2000 – Apr 2003 (31 months)
Dot-Com bubble burst. Trillions in overvalued tech stocks imploded.
Drawdown: −49% | 1Y return after: +33%
🔴 Jan 2008 – Jun 2009 (17 months)
Global Financial Crisis. Overleveraged banks, toxic mortgage debt collapsed.
Drawdown: −57% | 1Y return after: +45%
🟡 Aug 2011 – Oct 2011 (3 months)
US credit downgraded for the first time ever. Euro debt crisis erupted.
Drawdown: −21% | 1Y return after: +27%
🟣 Feb 2020 – Jul 2020 (4.5 months)
COVID-19 shut down the global economy overnight.
Drawdown: −34% | 1Y return after: +43%
🔵 Jan 2022 – Feb 2023 (12.5 months)
Fed hiked rates at the fastest pace in 40 years to kill inflation.
Drawdown: −25% | 1Y return after: +26%
🟠 Feb 2025 – Mar 2025 (1.5 months) ← WE ARE HERE
Tariff war shock rattled global markets. SPY hit $481.
Drawdown: −31% | 1Y return after: +40%
Avg 1Y return after crossing back above the 200SMA: +35%
Episode 6 just triggered. The market has never NOT recovered. This time it will recover fast as soon as the WAR is over.
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