War? Economy? Trump Just Wants Cheaper Stocks
$NVDA$
I had expected range-bound trading this week. But looking at NVDA's put flow — mostly clustered around 160 — there's a good chance we retest the 60-week MA.
Institutional call spread for this week: sell 172.5 call $NVDA 20260402 172.5 CALL$ , buy 180 call $NVDA 20260402 180.0 CALL$ .
The sharp sell-off in AI chip names might shake some confidence in demand. But nothing has fundamentally changed. It's just that stocks aren't cheap enough for Trump yet. Once these names get beaten down enough, the Iran-Israel conflict will magically get resolved. Sounds absurd — but check back when MU hits 300.
Medium-term call spread rolled down: 180–200 from 190–210. $NVDA 20260618 180.0 CALL$ / $NVDA 20260618 200.0 CALL$ .
Also worth noting: CRWV's large bearish position this week $CRWV 20260402 62.0 PUT$ — 40k contracts, still open. If you're thinking of selling puts to bottom-fish, wait for the shorts to cover.
$SPY$
Bears are blunt on SPY: two put spreads. One on this week's expiry targeting 630–615. Another on next week, same range. $SPY 20260402 630.0 PUT$ / $SPY 20260402 615.0 PUT$ .
Good news: the April 10th puts just closed. But other bearish positions remain open.
$QQQ$
Expect a pullback to the 20-month MA at 545.
$MSFT$
A near-term call spread: buy $MSFT 20260501 405.0 CALL$ , sell $MSFT 20260501 445.0 CALL$ — 35k contracts each. Betting on a rebound back to pre-war levels by earnings.
Also a far-dated deep OTM sell put: 250 strike $MSFT 20260821 250.0 PUT$ — 10k contracts. Shorting vol.
Given the broader downtrend, though, MSFT likely remains range-bound between 340 and 370.
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