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04-01

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SpaceX entered the index 15 days after listing, and Wall Street's "had to eat" trillion valuation forced fund managers to "have to buy"

对于专业投资者而言，SpaceX的IPO将成为一道无法拒绝的选择题——即便他们认为这家公司的估值已经高得离谱。根据Caplight数据，目前公开披露持仓的SpaceX机构股东中，富达投资占据主导地位，持有至少150亿美元SpaceX股票，约占公开披露总额的三分之二。而贝莱德、资本集团、普信等大型资管机构目前持有SpaceX股份相对较少，此次IPO将迫使他们首次决定是否大规模建仓。

SpaceX entered the index 15 days after listing, and Wall Street's "had to eat" trillion valuation forced fund managers to "have to buy"

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For long-term institutional investors who track the benchmark index, the risk of not participating is much higher than participating, notes Karen Snow, former head of Nasdaq's listing practice. If the stock price soars after missing the IPO, the performance will be miserable; Even if the stock price falls after buying, everyone is the same, at least safe.</p><p><h3 id=\"id_3274599227\">Index Fund Passive Takeover Fidelity has heavily warehoused over $15 billion</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Musk and his underwriters clearly know it well. They have about $75 billion in shares for sale and know that retail followers know that big buyers are waiting.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Major buyers after the IPO will include Invesco's $363 billion QQQ fund and nearly all large U.S. corporate mutual fund managers. Indexes such as the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 are also considering relaxing inclusion rules.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Patrick Healy, chief executive of advisory firm Issuer Network, warned that such an arrangement could distort the market – thinly traded stocks could be weighted far above their tradable market capitalization in the index, forcing index funds to buy a disproportionate share with limited supply, dragging down the other 99 constituents in the index once the share price drops.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to Caplight data, Fidelity Investments dominates SpaceX institutional shareholders currently publicly disclosing their positions, holding at least $15 billion in SpaceX stock, or about two-thirds of the total public disclosure. Large asset management institutions such as BlackRock, Capital Group and Puxin currently hold relatively few shares in SpaceX, and this IPO will force them to decide for the first time whether to build positions on a large scale.</p><p><h3 id=\"id_1867769010\">Valuation Benchmarking: Is it the next Tesla or a bubble?</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">SpaceX's planned IPO in June is up to $75 billion, which, adjusted for inflation, is about twice the size of Saudi Aramco's 2019 listing and three times the size of Facebook's 2012 listing. SpaceX needs investors to have enough confidence in its future if the IPO market cap exceeds Meta, which has about $1.4 trillion in revenue and profits over the last year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">PitchBook analysts believe that the $1.4 trillion valuation is reasonable as long as it is believed that SpaceX can continue to dominate the rocket launch and satellite internet markets, as the market is clearly pricing its growth trajectory beyond 2030.</p><p><h3 id=\"id_826310827\">Investor Choice: Trust Musk or Wait for a Correction?</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If an IPO is overpriced, there are plenty of other opportunities in the market that could wait for a pullback early in the IPO, like Facebook's shares traded lower in 2012 after it went public, according to a sovereign wealth fund investor.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But more people choose to trust Musk because he has made investors a ton of money over the past 20 years — Tesla's market cap has grown from about $75 billion in early 2020 to $1.1 trillion today.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A top technology investment banker who was not involved in the deal said, \"Far more people trust Musk to get everything done than doubters, because people who trust him have made money in the past 20 years.\" However, Samantha Lau, investment director of small-cap stocks in AllianceBernstein Fund, reminded that with the gradual lifting of the ban on insiders' shareholding, whether SpaceX can maintain the valuation of 100 times its revenue will depend on its subsequent execution. \"Whether the dream can continue depends on the actual performance after all.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpaceX entered the index 15 days after listing, and Wall Street's \"had to eat\" trillion valuation forced fund managers to \"have to buy\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-01 11:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>For professional investors, SpaceX's IPO will become a multiple-choice question that can't be refused-even if they think the company's valuation is already ridiculously high.</p><p>Faced with Musk's upcoming IPO with a valuation of more than $trillion, the core question for fund managers is: Can I really afford to miss this train?</p><p><h3 id=\"id_2588431365\">New regulations \"forcing the palace\": 15 days after listing can be included in the index</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Adding to Wall Street's \"miss-out phobia\" are new rules approved by Nasdaq on Monday: as long as companies are big enough, they can be included in the large-cap index only 15 days after listing, even if their shares are sparsely traded.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Previous rules required a three-month wait and had a higher threshold for the number of shares outstanding. For long-term institutional investors who track the benchmark index, the risk of not participating is much higher than participating, notes Karen Snow, former head of Nasdaq's listing practice. If the stock price soars after missing the IPO, the performance will be miserable; Even if the stock price falls after buying, everyone is the same, at least safe.</p><p><h3 id=\"id_3274599227\">Index Fund Passive Takeover Fidelity has heavily warehoused over $15 billion</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Musk and his underwriters clearly know it well. They have about $75 billion in shares for sale and know that retail followers know that big buyers are waiting.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Major buyers after the IPO will include Invesco's $363 billion QQQ fund and nearly all large U.S. corporate mutual fund managers. Indexes such as the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 are also considering relaxing inclusion rules.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Patrick Healy, chief executive of advisory firm Issuer Network, warned that such an arrangement could distort the market – thinly traded stocks could be weighted far above their tradable market capitalization in the index, forcing index funds to buy a disproportionate share with limited supply, dragging down the other 99 constituents in the index once the share price drops.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to Caplight data, Fidelity Investments dominates SpaceX institutional shareholders currently publicly disclosing their positions, holding at least $15 billion in SpaceX stock, or about two-thirds of the total public disclosure. Large asset management institutions such as BlackRock, Capital Group and Puxin currently hold relatively few shares in SpaceX, and this IPO will force them to decide for the first time whether to build positions on a large scale.</p><p><h3 id=\"id_1867769010\">Valuation Benchmarking: Is it the next Tesla or a bubble?</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">SpaceX's planned IPO in June is up to $75 billion, which, adjusted for inflation, is about twice the size of Saudi Aramco's 2019 listing and three times the size of Facebook's 2012 listing. SpaceX needs investors to have enough confidence in its future if the IPO market cap exceeds Meta, which has about $1.4 trillion in revenue and profits over the last year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">PitchBook analysts believe that the $1.4 trillion valuation is reasonable as long as it is believed that SpaceX can continue to dominate the rocket launch and satellite internet markets, as the market is clearly pricing its growth trajectory beyond 2030.</p><p><h3 id=\"id_826310827\">Investor Choice: Trust Musk or Wait for a Correction?</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If an IPO is overpriced, there are plenty of other opportunities in the market that could wait for a pullback early in the IPO, like Facebook's shares traded lower in 2012 after it went public, according to a sovereign wealth fund investor.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But more people choose to trust Musk because he has made investors a ton of money over the past 20 years — Tesla's market cap has grown from about $75 billion in early 2020 to $1.1 trillion today.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A top technology investment banker who was not involved in the deal said, \"Far more people trust Musk to get everything done than doubters, because people who trust him have made money in the past 20 years.\" However, Samantha Lau, investment director of small-cap stocks in AllianceBernstein Fund, reminded that with the gradual lifting of the ban on insiders' shareholding, whether SpaceX can maintain the valuation of 100 times its revenue will depend on its subsequent execution. \"Whether the dream can continue depends on the actual performance after all.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f16a7a67d0d2e6f1e72c43b8fe10d226","relate_stocks":{"IRIDQ":"Iridium World Communications Ltd.","VSAT":"卫讯公司","LUNR":"Intuitive Machines","DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc","SIDU":"Sidus Space Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉","ASTS":"AST SpaceMobile, Inc.","RKLB":"Rocket Lab USA, Inc.","SATS":"回声星通信","KULR":"KULR Technology Group, Inc.","SPCE":"维珍银河","GSAT":"全球星","ALAB":"Astera Labs, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104051020","content_text":"对于专业投资者而言，SpaceX的IPO将成为一道无法拒绝的选择题——即便他们认为这家公司的估值已经高得离谱。面对马斯克即将推出的逾万亿美元估值IPO，基金经理们面临的核心问题是：我真的能承受错过这趟车的代价吗？新规“逼宫”：上市15天即可纳入指数加剧华尔街“错失恐惧症”的是纳斯达克本周一批准的新规：只要公司规模足够大，上市后仅15天即可被纳入大型股指数，即便其股票交易量稀少。此前的规则要求等待三个月，且对流通股数量有更高门槛。前纳斯达克上市业务主管Karen Snow指出，对于追踪基准指数的长线机构投资者而言，不参与的风险远高于参与。如果错过IPO后股价大涨，业绩将惨不忍睹；即便买入后股价下跌，大家也都一样，至少安全。指数基金被动接盘 富达已重仓超150亿美元马斯克及其承销商显然深谙此道。他们手握约750亿美元股票待售，且深知道散户追随者深知大型买家正在候场。IPO后的主要买家将包括景顺旗下规模3630亿美元的QQQ基金，以及几乎所有美国大型公司共同基金管理人。标普500和罗素1000等指数也在考虑放宽纳入规则。咨询公司Issuer Network首席执行官Patrick Healy警告，这种安排可能扭曲市场——交易量稀薄的股票在指数中的权重可能远超其可交易市值，迫使指数基金在供应有限的情况下买入不成比例的股票，一旦股价下跌将拖累指数中其他99只成分股。根据Caplight数据，目前公开披露持仓的SpaceX机构股东中，富达投资占据主导地位，持有至少150亿美元SpaceX股票，约占公开披露总额的三分之二。而贝莱德、资本集团、普信等大型资管机构目前持有SpaceX股份相对较少，此次IPO将迫使他们首次决定是否大规模建仓。估值对标：是下一个特斯拉还是泡沫？SpaceX计划6月进行的IPO规模高达750亿美元，经通胀调整后，约为沙特阿美2019年上市规模的两倍，是Facebook 2012年上市规模的三倍。如果IPO市值超过约1.4万亿美元的Meta，而后者去年营收和利润是SpaceX的12倍以上，SpaceX需要投资者对其未来有足够信心。PitchBook分析师认为，只要相信SpaceX能继续主导火箭发射和卫星互联网市场，1.4万亿美元的估值就是合理的，因为市场显然在定价其2030年后的增长轨迹。投资者抉择：信任马斯克还是等待回调？一位主权财富基金投资者表示，如果IPO定价过高，市场上还有很多其他机会，可能会等待上市初期的回调，就像2012年Facebook上市后股价走低那样。但更多人选择相信马斯克，因为他在过去20年让投资者赚得盆满钵满——特斯拉市值从2020年初的约750亿美元增长至如今的1.1万亿美元。一位未参与此次交易的顶级科技投行家称，“信任马斯克能搞定一切的人远远多于怀疑者，因为信任他的人在过去20年赚到了钱。” 不过，联博基金中小盘股投资总监Samantha Lau提醒，随着内部人士持股逐步解禁，SpaceX能否维持100倍营收的估值，将取决于其后续的执行力，“梦想能否延续，终究要看实绩。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IRIDQ":2,"DXYZ":2,"ALAB":2,"RKLB":2,"LUNR":2,"SIDU":2,"GSAT":2,"KULR":2,"TSLA":2,"ASTS":2,"VSAT":2,"SATS":2,"SPCE":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}