$SOFI Bull Cycle Ended Stay on Sideline Until Buying Pressure Returns
$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ 's two year bull cycle ended March 1st.
People keep asking if this is the bottom.
Here is why I am not buying yet.
Two things I look at before entering any long term position. The monthly BX and the fair value band.
Right now both are telling me the same thing. Stay away.
The monthly BX measures buying pressure. When it is dark red, there is no buying pressure in the market.
No buying pressure means no entry. Simple as that.
I do not care how cheap the stock looks. If institutions are not buying, I am not buying.
A lot of people want to time the bottom perfectly. I get it. It feels great when it works. But the downside of being wrong is holding a falling stock for months waiting to break even.
That is not a trade. That is a trap.
The fair value band is the second piece. On the monthly timeframe this tends to act as strong institutional support and a clean place to start a long term position. We are not there yet.
Best case in my opinion is a drop to around $14. More likely I am watching the $10 to $12 range as the real area where this thing finds a floor.
So no, I am not calling a bottom here. A discount is not a signal. Buying pressure is the signal.
When the monthly BX turns, I will be the first to say something. Until then I am watching from the sideline.
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