Should We Bet on the Rebound?
Looking at the large option flows, after four consecutive up days, the market seems to have thrown in the towel. Sentiment can be broken into a few camps:
No More Crash Camp: Short VIX $VIX 20260722 28.0 CALL$ , short SQQQ $SQQQ 20260410 76.5 CALL$ .
Sideways Camp: Year-end sell puts on Intel $INTC 20261218 33.0 PUT$ and $INTC 20260918 39.0 PUT$ .
Big Range-Bound Until May 1st: Sell put $NVDA 20260501 150.0 PUT$ + sell call $NVDA 20260501 195.0 CALL$ .
The mainstream view is that war won't break out, but it will drag on — at least through May. That consensus likely solidified last week as Micron approached 300. I have to say, that large bullish call order on MU $MU 20260618 400.0 CALL$ was perfectly timed.
So, is it time to sell puts? Depends on your risk tolerance. If the current expectation of grinding tension doesn't pan out — and instead war escalates — we could see 5000 on SPY.
$NVDA$
Put flow looks much healthier than last week. Expected range: 170–185. At current levels, if margin isn't an issue, selling the 170 put could work $NVDA 20260410 170.0 PUT$ .
$INTC$
Two large sell put orders: $INTC 20261218 33.0 PUT$ and $INTC 20260918 39.0 PUT$ . Feels like an institution tired of the macro mess — just locking in some yield for year-end.
$SPY$
A butterfly centered around 495–500 — tail-risk hedge. Without a black swan, the base this week should be 640–650, with upside to 670. Timing is key for selling calls — selling low can get squeezed.
$MU$
A large buy order: $MU 20260501 400.0 CALL$ — 19,000 contracts opened.
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