To The Moon

The whole world now believes Trump won't keep fighting, so stocks keep rallying. There's a big difference between actually wanting war and pretending to fight while wanting a deal. As a result, some well-placed insider short positions that were heavily positioned for a crash this week are getting crushed — like the 31.3k contracts of the SMH 405 put for this week $SMH 20260417 405.0 PUT$ .

Of course, something else could still happen this week. But looking at the lifecycle of these weekly options, this large order is likely headed to zero — unless Trump drops another "obliteration" tweet. Even then, I think the market would keep rallying.

At today's open, a large bullish order hit: the software ETF IGV 90 call $IGV 20261218 90.0 CALL$  — 47k contracts, $19.7M notional. That lifted Microsoft, PLTR, and other software names. Long-term fundamentals don't really justify this trade. More likely: some software companies are about to report decent earnings, and the trade is getting in early.

$NVDA$

NVIDIA has already rallied to 188, leaving little room to the top of the prior range. Institutions are selling the 187.5 call for this week, hedging with the 195 call $NVDA 20260417 195.0 CALL$ . Breaking above 195 this week seems unlikely.

Still, I prefer selling puts over selling calls. The range is one thing, but trend strength is another. Cloud GPU rental prices are up 40%. Most of that benefit has gone to CRWV, but after seeing how Micron behaved, selling calls here feels psychologically tough.

$NOK$

First target is 12 — but could go higher. The stock is cheap enough to get memed. A large call order opened: June 18th 11 call $NOK 20260618 11.0 CALL$ .

Bank Stocks:

This earnings season isn't kind to banks. Both regional bank ETF and financial ETF saw large put orders: $KRE 20260821 65.0 PUT$ , $XLF 20260417 50.5 PUT$ . Goldman's post-earnings gap down confirms the weakness. If you want to play bank earnings, a bear call spread is the way to go.