To The Moon

Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might be extended and a new round of talks might resume, but the two sides did not formally reach an agreement on extending the truce and merely remained in contact.

As this series of developments unfolded, the market’s view of the Middle East shifted from expectations of “rapid de-escalation” to a more drawn-out pattern of “negotiating without real progress.” Although the geopolitical risk premium has retreated from its earlier highs, it has not fully disappeared, and assets continue to be repeatedly repriced around the latest twists in the talks.

As of 8:00 p.m. on April 15, 2026, the weekly performance of key assets was as follows:

In an environment where macro expectations keep swinging back and forth, simply tracking price moves is no longer enough to understand the main market narrative. By contrast, inventory changes provide a better picture of real supply and demand, while capital flows reveal investors’ allocation preferences more directly. It therefore makes sense to look at the latest developments in U.S. equities, U.S. Treasuries, crude oil, copper, aluminum, gold, and silver through the dual lenses of inventories and fund flows.

1. U.S. equities and Treasuries: pressure from equity outflows eases, while bond flows remain volatile

According to the latest data from the Investment Company Institute, or ICI:

The ICI, founded in 1940, is one of the most influential organizations in the U.S. fund industry. Its flow data is widely regarded by the market as an authoritative source for tracking subscriptions and redemptions in U.S. mutual funds. At the same time, the ICI has long published statistics on regulated fund assets and flows in both the U.S. and global markets. Because its methodology is stable and its coverage is broad, it is widely cited by brokerages, research institutions, and financial media.

Fund flows in U.S. equities remained negative. For the week ending April 8, 2026, U.S. equity funds recorded net outflows of $3.66 billion, extending the outflow trend. This suggests that equity mutual funds as a whole are still in a phase of capital withdrawal, indicating that investor sentiment has not yet meaningfully reversed.

From a marginal perspective, net outflows in the week ending April 8 narrowed sharply from the $8.85 billion recorded in the week ending April 1, suggesting that the pressure from the earlier concentrated wave of selling is beginning to ease. But since flows have not yet returned to net inflow territory, this should still be viewed as a “temporary easing in outflow pressure,” rather than “a broad-based return of capital.”

Treasury-related fund flows showed signs of stabilization after a period of sharp volatility. For the week ending April 8, 2026, U.S. bond funds posted net outflows of $1.08 billion. Although still in negative territory, this was a dramatic improvement from the $20.17 billion net outflow recorded in the week ending April 1, indicating that the shock from the prior week’s heavy redemptions has started to fade.

Looking at the marginal pattern, bond funds were still seeing modest net inflows in early March, then turned to net outflows by March 25, with selling accelerating sharply in the week ending April 1 before narrowing significantly in the latest week. This looks more like a sentiment adjustment following a short-term wave of concentrated deleveraging, reflecting a clear shock to risk appetite in fixed-income assets in early April, although the latest data suggest that pressure has since moderated.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2606(YMmain)$ $Micro E-mini Dow Jones - main 2606(MYMmain)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$

On the yield curve, the latest data as of April 15, 2026 showed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.29%, while the 3-month Treasury yield stood at 3.71%. Looking at the latest section of the chart, within the most recent one-week window, the short-end 3-month yield (yellow line) edged slightly higher, while the long-end 10-year yield (blue line) was broadly unchanged from the previous week after a mild pullback and some choppy trading. The positive spread between the two narrowed slightly.

2. Crude oil: early signs of an inventory turning point, with a more visible draw at Cushing

According to the latest Bloomberg data:

• U.S. commercial crude inventories: as of April 15, 2026, the latest data point on the chart shows that the 2026 U.S. commercial crude inventory curve (orange line) has shown a stepwise rise. In historical percentile terms, although total inventories have increased recently, the current absolute level, at around 0.46M, is still not far from the 2021–2025 historical average (white line) and remains within the normal range of fluctuations seen over the past five years.

  

  Cushing crude inventories: in Cushing, the main delivery hub for U.S. crude, the 2026 inventory curve (orange line) has also trended upward. But unlike national inventories, the latest absolute level in Cushing has fallen below 30,000, clearly below the 2021–2025 historical average (white line) and sitting at the lower end of its five-year historical range.

  

From a marginal perspective, after entering April, both nationwide commercial crude inventories and Cushing inventories, as represented by the 2026 orange line, showed a pattern of first rising and then falling. For the week ending April 15, 2026, EIA data showed that U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 913,000 barrels from the previous week. Over the same period, inventories at Cushing, the key U.S. crude delivery hub, declined by 1.727 million barrels. Taken together, the chart suggests that since April, North American crude has not seen any meaningful inventory build at the commercial storage level.

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2606(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2605(QMmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2605(MCLmain)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ $ETFS WTI CRUDE OIL(CRUD.UK)$

3. Copper: inventories remain high in absolute terms, while total stocks are rising again

In terms of absolute levels and historical percentile, as of April 10, 2026, total visible global copper inventories stood at around 1.327M, or roughly 1.327 million metric tons, still at a relatively elevated level by recent historical standards. Of this total, CME copper inventories were about 0.587M short tons, LME copper inventories were around 0.393M, and Shanghai copper inventories were roughly 0.266M. Looking over a longer horizon, global copper inventories have largely stayed in a high range over the past year. In particular, overseas inventories had been rising steadily earlier on, leaving total inventories under sustained pressure and suggesting that the burden from high absolute stock levels has not yet been meaningfully resolved.

Looking at the latest section on the far right of the chart, the most recent week did not show a synchronized build or draw across exchanges. Instead, it showed a clear divergence: Shanghai copper inventories continued to decline noticeably, CME copper inventories edged slightly lower, while LME copper inventories continued to increase. Because the increase in LME stocks outweighed the declines in Shanghai and CME, total global copper inventories turned higher again this week after falling the previous week. In other words, the defining feature of the latest week was “destocking in Shanghai, a mild decline at CME, continued inventory accumulation at the LME, and a renewed rise in total inventories,” with marginal inventory pressure still coming mainly from overseas markets.

$Copper - main 2605(HGmain)$ $ETFS COPPER(COPA.UK)$ $Micro Copper - main 2605(MHGmain)$ $E-MINI COPPER - main 2605(QCmain)$

4. Aluminum: continued overseas destocking, while domestic inventories remain high and diverge again

As of April 10, 2026, total aluminum inventories across the three major exchanges stood at about 0.875M, or 875,000 metric tons. Of this, COMEX aluminum inventories were approximately 1,864 tons, LME aluminum inventories were about 0.399M, and Shanghai aluminum inventories were around 0.474M.

Looking at the marginal changes in the latest week, aluminum inventories across the three exchanges continued to show clear divergence. COMEX aluminum inventories kept falling, with the latest reading dropping to 1,864 tons, indicating that U.S. aluminum inventories remain in a low-level destocking phase. LME aluminum inventories also declined further to around 0.399M, extending a longer-running downtrend and suggesting that the tightness in overseas spot markets has not materially eased. By contrast, Shanghai aluminum inventories edged up to 0.474M and remained near the high end of this year’s range, indicating that domestic inventory pressure is still building.

Structurally, the key feature of the aluminum market remains “overseas destocking alongside elevated domestic inventories.” Persistently low inventories at COMEX and the LME point to tighter spot circulation overseas, while high inventories in Shanghai suggest that domestic supply pressure has not yet been fully worked off. Although total inventories across the three exchanges have risen from earlier lows, that increase has been driven mainly by Shanghai inventories rather than any improvement in overseas stock levels.

$ALUMINUM FUTURES - main 2606(ALImain)$ $ETFS ALUMINIUM(ALUM.UK)$

5. Gold and silver: faster inventory drawdowns, diverging positioning sentiment at the margin, and continued contraction in net longs

According to the latest Wind data:

• On the inventory side, which reflects the physical fundamentals, the latest data as of April 15, 2026 showed COMEX gold inventories at 30.1451 million troy ounces and silver inventories at 322 million troy ounces. Looking at the historical trend, both have been in an extremely steep long-term downtrend. In particular, since the second half of 2025 and into 2026, the pace of inventory drawdown in both gold and silver has accelerated significantly. At present, the absolute inventory levels of both metals have fallen below every low seen from 2021 to 2025, placing them at the lowest levels in recent years.

COMEX Gold Inventories

COMEX Silver Inventories

• On the positioning side, the latest data show that non-commercial COMEX gold long positions (blue line) stood at 205,400 contracts, while short positions (yellow line) were 49,100 contracts. For COMEX silver, non-commercial long positions (blue line) stood at 32,800 contracts, while short positions (yellow line) were 9,393 contracts. In historical percentile terms, speculative net long positions in both gold and silver, defined as long positions minus short positions, have fallen sharply from their earlier historical highs.

COMEX Gold Positions

COMEX Silver Positions

From a marginal perspective, the latest section on the far right of the charts shows a highly consistent pattern across gold and silver: “inventory depletion” paired with “long liquidation.”

On the inventory side, both gold and silver inventory curves have continued to trend lower in recent weeks, indicating ongoing outflows from physical delivery warehouses.

On the positioning side, non-commercial long positions in both gold and silver have been declining at the far right edge of the charts, while short positions have diverged: non-commercial gold shorts have increased, whereas non-commercial silver shorts have declined. This means bearish or hedging pressure in the gold market has strengthened at the margin, while short-side pressure in silver has eased somewhat, suggesting that positioning sentiment is no longer moving in exactly the same direction across the two metals.

$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2606(MGCmain)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2606(1OZmain)$ $E-mini Gold - main 2606(QOmain)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $ProShares Ultra Gold(UGL)$ $Silver - main 2605(SImain)$ $E-mini Silver - main 2605(QImain)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ $ProShares Ultra Silver(AGQ)$

6. Conclusion: follow the money and understand the inventory base

The central theme across asset markets this week was the shift in the U.S.-Iran situation from expectations of “rapid de-escalation” to a reality of “fragile ceasefire and drawn-out negotiations,” forcing markets to reprice around geopolitical risk and inflation-related disruption. Looking through the twin lenses of inventories and fund flows, current signals across asset classes remain far from uniform. Outflow pressure in U.S. equities has eased, but flows have yet to return to net inflow territory. U.S. bonds have stabilized somewhat after heavy redemptions, suggesting that defensive allocation remains unstable. Crude inventories have started to decline at the margin, indicating that North America has not seen a meaningful inventory build. Copper and aluminum continue to reflect a mix of overseas inventory pressure and regional divergence. In precious metals, inventories are still being drawn down aggressively, but positioning sentiment has not strengthened in tandem: gold shorts have risen, while silver shorts have fallen, pointing to continued divergence within the precious metals complex. Overall, the market has yet to establish a single, clearly dominant trading narrative. Instead, it looks more like a rebalancing process among repeated geopolitical twists, wavering risk appetite, and diverging supply-demand structures.

That wraps up this week’s data breakdown. If negotiations continue to drag on, will crude destocking and the divergence among safe-haven assets persist? We’ll revisit that next week.