To The Moon

Hi Tigers 🐯, Welcome to “What the Tigers say.” 👋

Semi Super Week has now delivered its verdict. ASML set the stage on April 15 with a solid but cautious Q1 print that left some investors worried the AI capex wave was softening. This morning, TSMC answered emphatically — reframing the debate from "is the cycle cooling?" to "how long can this run?"

Before TSMC stepped up to the plate this morning, the community was already doing the heavy lifting on what ASML's "cautious optimism" meant for the rest of the semi complex. Let's rewind to the three sharpest takes from LanceLjx, nerdbull1669 and xc__:

1. TSMC Beats Big! Has AI Demand Just Been Revalidated? @LanceLjx

Keypoints：

• Market Rotation: ASML’s performance signals a demand shift rather than a decline: AI is driving a surge in memory spending (now 51% of system sales) that offsets softer logic orders and export headwinds.

• Strategic Entry: Current conditions suggest a staggered accumulation approach is wiser than a single aggressive buy, particularly as the market processes timing delays and visibility gaps.

• The TSM Indicator: Strong results from TSMC could validate the AI thesis and turn the ASML dip into a buy, while cautious guidance may signal sector consolidation.

2. Semi Super Week Showdown: TSMC’s $17B Profit Explosion vs ASML’s Order Jitters – AI Chip Boom or Supply Chain Crack? 😱📉 @xc__

Key points：

• TSMC’s Dominant Growth: TSMC is expected to report a record-breaking ~$17.1 billion profit, marking nine straight quarters of growth fueled by demand for advanced AI and high-performance computing nodes.

• ASML and the Samsung Catalyst: Despite general market anxiety over order visibility, Samsung’s massive $4 billion commitment for 20 EUV machines provides a major relief valve for ASML

• Market Outlook and Strategy: While potential tariffs and capex scrutiny remain risks, the sector is positioned for a 12–18% upside if guidance holds, making a strategy of buying TSMC dips preferable

3. TSMC ($TSM) Earnings Cap Make It A Candidate For Bull Puts Spread Post Earnings @nerdbull1669

• Financial Focus Beyond Revenue: While Q1 revenue showcases strong, investors are watching if the high costs of overseas expansion and the 2nm ramp-up are beginning to offset AI-driven profits.

• Strategic Shift to AI Infrastructure: Strong Q1 results and raised 2026 guidance conveys its transition into a primary AI infrastructure proxy, with High-Performance Computing (HPC) driving up revenue

• Bull Put Spread Strategy: Traders are eyeing a Bull Put Spread ($365/$355) for the April 24 expiration, aims to capitalize on high implied volatility and "buy-the-news" momentum

Thoughtful reads from the community — the print broadly aligns with the frameworks shared.

The $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Indicator angle tracked the setup reasonably well, and HPC growth of +20% QoQ adds support to a staggered accumulation view.

Profit estimates were directionally close with actuals coming in stronger, and options setups like a Bull Put Spread are worth revisiting post-print, particularly around how IV crush may interact with chosen strikes.

One framing: $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ could be viewed as a more direct AI-infrastructure exposure, while $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ offers a higher-beta path to a similar thesis with additional policy-related variables. Some investors may think of TSMC as a basket anchor, ASML as convexity, and memory names (Hynix, $Micron Technology(MU)$ ) as potential late-cycle rotation if HBM demand continues pulling forward — though the appropriate mix depends on individual risk tolerance and time horizon.

🎁 Special Notes: Whoever showed up on the “What the Tigers Say” column will receive 100 Tiger Coins! See you next week!