Look, the only reason I can hold RKLB through Neutron risk is the $1.85B backlog. Without that, $80 is too pricey for what's basically a launch schedule bet.
Backlog grew 73% in a year. Most of it locks in revenue into 2028. So when RKLB drops 6% in a session like last Friday, I don't panic sell. The cashflow is coming whether or not Neutron flies on time.
But Neutron is the actual upside. Stifel's $105 PT pencils in Q4 2026 first launch plus 10% medium-lift share by 2028 (against Falcon 9, sure). And it already got pushed back once from late 2025, dev costs creeping from $300M-ish to $360M. Confirm slip one more time lah, these things always do.
The SpaceX IPO part is just sugar high. Filing buzz pops RKLB and DXYZ 3-5%, then fades. Nice tailwind, can't build a position on it.
So $100 in 6 months is a coin flip, fully on whatever Neutron headlines drop next. Rather wait for the next delay-induced dip into the $70s than chase $80 here. Floor is real, ceiling depends on a rocket.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
