So Blue Origin's New Glenn dumped BlueBird 7 into the wrong orbit last Sunday. The upper-stage engine underperformed, the satellite couldn't get high enough to stay up, and now it's getting deorbited. One bird, gone.
But the rest of the rollout hasn't even slowed. BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are shipping in 30 days. AT&T's beta direct-to-cell service is still on for H1 2026. Verizon's already $100M deep into the partnership. The FY26 revenue guide of $150-200M (up from $70.9M last year) didn't move either. And Block 2 satellites carry 10x the capacity of Block 1, hitting 120 Mbps direct to phone. Constellation thesis is intact 🤷
The bigger story isn't ASTS though. It's launch risk. New Glenn just lost a customer's satellite on what should've been a routine deployment, and every constellation builder is going to want a third option beyond SpaceX and Blue Origin. RKLB's Neutron didn't cause any of this, but its Q4 2026 debut just got a free demo of why the medium-lift duopoly isn't safe. Funny how the market tagged ASTS as the loser, not Blue Origin.
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