To The Moon

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you~

1 Economists on AI-infused future: "We must act now"

A new statement signed by hundreds of prominent economists shows how some leading thinkers see the opportunities and risks of artificial intelligence. The debate it has triggered sheds light on perhaps the most crucial economic question of our age.

The big picture: AI — and the positive and negative disruptions it will cause — is emerging as a seismic question for the economic future. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

That part, everybody can agree on. Less settled is how society should grapple with that fact.

Driving the news: The statement, titled "We Must Act Now," was organized by Stanford's Erik Brynjolfsson and other leading economists studying AI. It was published earlier this week with more than 200 signatories, including 16 Nobel laureates. It is now approaching 2,000 signatories.

They include figures identified with the political left (Paul Krugman) and right (Niall Ferguson, Tyler Cowen), as well as both technologists (Reid Hoffman, Eric Schmidt) and people with experience in policymaking (Jason Furman, Gita Gopinath, Gina Raimondo).

Here's the short statement, in its entirety:

"AI may become radically more powerful over the next 10 years.

This could drive an unprecedented transformation of our economy, larger than the Industrial Revolution, but unfolding over a vastly shorter time frame. It could bring risks, including large-scale job displacement, as well as opportunities such as major gains in living standards.

Economists, policymakers and technology leaders must act now to understand the economics of transformative AI and to build the incentives, guardrails, and institutions needed to steer AI in a direction that complements humans and benefits society."

Between the lines: The organizers were able to get such broad agreement by keeping the statement tight and vague. Some of the pushback they have received points to the crucial unresolved questions as the U.S. and countries around the world grapple with an AI-infused future.

The counterargument is that the potential of AI to improve living standards is so great that if governments try to act preemptively to head off unknown risks, they risk blocking transformative benefits to humanity.

What they're saying: "You must be kidding," wrote John Cochrane, at Stanford's Hoover Institution, on X. "AI might have big effects. It could have risks. So 'policymakers,' must 'act now,' before they have any idea what they're doing, to 'build the incentives, guardrails and institutions needed to steer AI in a direction that complements humans and benefits society?'"

"Boy I'm glad no self-appointed 'policy maker' decided to 'steer' the development of the steam engine. The ones who 'steered' nuclear power destroyed it. Preemptive dirigisme is killing tech in Europe."

The other side: "Good AI needs to complement humans, and this requires a redirection, because the current focus on [artificial general intelligence] is, in all but name, an agenda for displacing humans from meaningful work," said MIT's Daron Acemoglu, who signed the statement, on X.

"That's why steering AI must be a first priority," he added. "I'm happy that many thought leaders have agreed."

The bottom line: Can the pro-humanity benefits of AI be enjoyed while policymakers work to prevent its less desirable side effects? That is the debate that the most prominent names in global economics are having.

2 You are missing the bond deal of the decade — and it is guaranteed to beat inflation

It is an especially opportune time to buy U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS), since real interest rates are above their 10-year average.

This advice will come as a surprise to those who have accepted the popular narrative that real interest rates — the difference between U.S. inflation and reported, or nominal, rates — fell to negative levels earlier this year as inflation worsened. That narrative supports the belief that nominal rates must rise for real rates to return to positive territory.

That may be accurate for extremely short-term rates such as the fed-funds rate, which is the rate the Federal Reserve sets. But when it comes to interest rates of 1-year maturity or longer, this belief betrays a fundamental confusion about how to calculate real interest rates: Instead of comparing current interest rates with trailing (past) inflation, real rates reflect the difference between nominal rates and expected future inflation. Doing the calculation that way, current real rates are not only positive but actually higher than their 10-year average.

This is shown in the chart above. It reflects the difference between the nominal 1-year Treasury bill BX:TMUBMUSD01Y and the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y and expected 1- and 10-year inflation as calculated by the inflation expectations model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The 10-year real (after inflation) yield was recently 2.1%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the 10-year average of 0.9%. The 1-year real yield stands at 2.2%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the 10-year average of 0.3%.

The investment implication is that it is a good time to invest in a TIPS ladder, thereby locking in relatively high real rates. According to the TipsLadder.com website, a 30-year TIPS ladder produces a guaranteed inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate of 4.9% annualized over the next 30 years, and a real yield (after inflation) of 2.7% annualized. Earlier this decade, the comparable withdrawal rate was just over 4.0%.

What you're locking in with a TIPS ladder is how much you will earn above inflation. Once established, you won't need to care about whether inflation turns out to be higher or lower than the Cleveland Fed model is forecasting.

That's not a bad trade-off. Still, a fair objection to this analysis is that it is based on projections rather than reality. The Cleveland Fed's model could be wrong, after all. Doesn't that make a bet on lower real rates quite speculative?

All investment forecasts are speculative, of course. But the Cleveland Fed's forecasts use a sophisticated model based on "Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations." A lot would have to be wrong for the model's forecasts to be way off base.

Take the inflation swaps that are just one of the inputs to the Cleveland Fed's model. These are derivative contracts whose payoffs are tied to inflation, and the total notional value of the global swap market is in the trillions of dollars. Or consider the TIPS market, whose yields are another input to the Cleveland Fed's model; its market is estimated at $2 trillion.

In both markets, traders haggle over differences in expected inflation of just a single basis point (0.01%). What makes you think you have a better crystal ball than full-time traders with collectively trillions of dollars at stake?

3 3 of the Best Stocks to Buy for Less Than $100 Right Now

$Netflix(NFLX)$

Normally a top growth stock, streaming company Netflix hasn't been as compelling an investment this year. The market appears to be concerned about where the business may be heading, with its name often involved in rumors relating to potential acquisitions, and co-founder Reed Hastings recently leaving the company.

At around $74 and the stock trading at 24 times its trailing earnings, its valuation is attractive given how strong Netflix's business is. The company has achieved considerable growth over the years, with its revenue totaling $45 billion last year -- which is an increase of 34% from where it was two years ago.

What's even more impressive is that it has grown at a fast rate while also having strong profit margins; its earnings totaled $11 billion last year, which means about 24 cents of every dollar of revenue flows through to the bottom line. Netflix has an excellent business model, and at a reasonable price, it's still a top stock to buy for the long haul.

$Pfizer(PFE)$

Healthcare stock Pfizer has effectively been in stock market purgatory for years. No matter how attractive its dividend gets, no matter the acquisitions it makes to bolster its growth prospects, investors appear to have forgotten it even exists. This year, it's down around 3%, despite trading at an already heavily discounted valuation; its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, based on analyst estimates, is just eight.

It's trading at $24, which is the price you could have bought it at back in 2012. The market may be waiting for proof and confirmation that the business will be in good shape and that its dividend, which yields 7.1%, is really safe in the long run. Acquisitions have bolstered its pipeline, and the company has around 20 key pivotal studies it's starting this year. If it gets even a bit of good news relating to one of its drugs, that could set off a rally for the stock.

Pfizer is a top name in healthcare, and it has demonstrated over the years an ability to innovate and grow. There is some uncertainty ahead for the business, but with Pfizer still expecting to generate solid and stable numbers this year, it's a safer stock than it looks. A rally may not be necessarily around the corner, but with a high dividend yield and a lot of potential upside, this may be an ideal option for long-term investors who are willing to wait and stay the course.

$Verizon(VZ)$

Another high-yielding stock that hasn't been getting much love of late is Verizon. It was doing well in the early part of the year, but it's nearly given back all those gains and is now up just around 4% thus far in 2026. At around $42, this is a stock that is another good value option to consider, with its forward P/E multiple also around eight.

Like Pfizer, it too pays a fairly high dividend, with its yield at about 6.7%. This telecom giant is the prototypical boring, long-term holding that can make for an excellent pillar in any portfolio. While it typically generates single-digit growth, it's fairly stable, with the company reporting more than $130 billion in revenue in each of the past three years.

With Verizon recently completing its acquisition of Frontier, its business will grow, and its growth rate is likely to improve as well. It's a leader in telecom, and that's unlikely to change anytime soon, which makes it an excellent long-term buy.