To The Moon

My Investing Muse (20Jul2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

• GOOGLE WORKERS ARE BRACING FOR LAYOFFS. 4,500 signed a petition demanding guaranteed severance and an end to performance quotas. 100+ rallied at HQ to deliver it to CEO Sundar Pichai. 4 in 10 tech workers now say they fear being laid off within a year. - X user Layoff Hedge

• "Millions of Americans want jobs but can't find them, and the number now exceeds the Great Financial Crisis," per Benzinga

• The total number of job cuts attributed to AI are 87,714 2026, per Challenger and Gray. This is 22% of all 2026 layoffs. - X user Unusual Whale

• "Midsize companies that employ millions of workers are now shedding jobs and relocating overseas to cut costs," per WSJ

Summary of news (compiled by Gemini)

The week starting July 13, 2026, saw significant job reductions across the technology, consulting, and media sectors, largely driven by corporate restructuring and a strategic shift toward artificial intelligence.

In tech, Thomson Reuters announced plans to cut up to 500 engineering roles to pivot toward AI-native talent. Similarly, Singapore’s GovTech cut roughly 300 positions as part of a sector-wide reorganisation, while Sprout Social slashed 20% of its workforce. Amid mounting uncertainty, 4,500 Google employees staged a protest at the Mountain View campus, demanding stronger job security protections.

Beyond tech, KPMG Australia prepared to eliminate over 1,000 consulting roles to combat challenging business conditions. Additionally, defense IT firm Leidos cut 305 indirect roles, advertising giant WPP trimmed an estimated 300 positions, and UK supermarket chain ASDA placed 300 security jobs at risk.

The Battle of AI

Chinese models have caught up in terms of performance, at a tiny fraction of the cost. We also see more companies turning from American models to Chinese models. The Chinese are delivering more value per token spent. Is this something that can be bridged over time? Is it really about 2 countries or the fight between an open-sourced versus a closed system?

Will Kimi’s valuation imply the overvaluation of both OpenAI and Anthropic?

Chinese models are 112x cheaper than Anthropic per million tokens. Chamath laid it out on CNBC: a “barrel of intelligence” costs $56 from Anthropic, $26 from OpenAI, $1.50 from Meta, $1 from xAI and Google, and $0.50 from Chinese models. - X user Shruti (Source: CNBC news)

Geopolitical and Market Risks to Watch

One of the biggest developments over the past week has been the escalation of tensions in the Gulf between the United States and Iran. The recent exchanges have caused further damage and loss of life, adding to broader uncertainty across global markets.

Weather Disruptions and El Niño Risk

Weather-related disruptions have also increased. Recent events include a landslide in Chongqing, a 7.3-magnitude earthquake in Mexico, flooding in Malaysia, and wildfires in Spain. Air quality concerns have also emerged after fires in Canada contributed to unhealthy conditions across several U.S. states, creating additional disruption around major events such as the FIFA World Cup finals.

The effects of El Niño should be monitored closely. If agricultural harvests are affected, the impact on food supply, livelihoods, and the cost of living could become more visible by the end of this year or in early 2027.

Economic Outlook and Earnings Focus

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, now in its fifth year, has also seen more severe military exchanges. There are growing rumours of a wider military conflict in the region.

With the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, the current administration has limited time to shift sentiment and reshape the broader narrative. The FIFA World Cup 2026 may provide some relief for U.S. consumers and retail activity, but it remains unclear whether this will be enough to offset ongoing inflationary pressure and labour-market concerns.

China has reported quarterly GDP growth of 4.3%, bringing its annual growth forecast to around 4.7%. This is important not only as a signal of China’s domestic conditions, but also as a broader reference point for global consumption, which appears to be weakening.

The coming earnings season will therefore be important. Companies will report revenue and profit from the previous quarter, but the most important data may be management outlooks and forward guidance, as these will offer clues about demand, margins, and confidence for the months ahead.

Leverage and Market Concentration Risks

Investors should pay close attention to developments in Asia, particularly in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, where significant leverage appears to be present in investing and trading activity.

In South Korea, reports indicate that 1.2 million accounts have faced margin calls, while around 250,000 accounts have been liquidated. Although similar leveraged trades exist in other regional markets, South Korea appears more exposed because much of the leveraged activity is concentrated in two companies.

The United States is also facing concentration risk, particularly around big technology stocks and the “Magnificent Seven.” With SpaceX’s current stock price reportedly falling below its initial public offering price, the broader question is what this suggests about investor sentiment and market confidence.

As always, I recommend caution. We should continue to research carefully before investing.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$Blackstone Group LP(BX)$