Wolfe Research has laid out a long-term growth case for $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ , suggesting a potential path to $30B in revenue and $21B in EBITDA by 2030.
They see the growth ramp potentially starting in 4Q26 as the Vineland facility comes online, which should unlock more contracted capacity.
Key catalysts they point to include the $46B in signed deals with $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and META. The Meta agreement specifically is $27B, which breaks down to $12B in fixed capacity and $15B in optional capacity. They also highlight the company's ability to optimize capacity between contracted customers and potentially higher-paying spot demand.
On the margin side, the drivers mentioned are a cloud pipeline that grew 3.5x quarter-over-quarter (excluding hyperscalers), an increasing mix of inference and software revenue, the $643M Eigen AI acquisition to strengthen AI capabilities, and the potential for sustained gross margins in the high-60% range.
The broader thesis here is that AI demand is shifting from training toward inference, which is expected to create massive demand for GPU cloud infrastructure. From this view, $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ remains a key AI infrastructure name to watch as its capacity scales.
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