To The Moon

$Texas Instruments(TXN)$ delivered broad-based semiconductor recovery and stronger-than-expected guidance, but the shares declined after hours. The reaction shows how far expectations had risen during the stock’s preceding rally.

Second-quarter revenue increased 23% year over year and 13% sequentially to $5.46 billion. Operating profit rose 48% to $2.31 billion, while net income increased 53% to $1.98 billion. Earnings reached $2.14 per share, including a five-cent benefit not included in management’s original guidance. Texas Instruments’ July 22 results provide the figures.

Growth was led by industrial, automotive and data-centre customers. That breadth is significant because Texas Instruments does not depend primarily on selling leading-edge AI accelerators. Its analog and embedded products manage power, sense real-world conditions and connect digital systems to physical equipment.

Data-centre sales reportedly doubled year over year, demonstrating that AI infrastructure demand benefits more than GPU manufacturers. Servers and networking systems require large numbers of power-management and signal-processing components.

Management expects third-quarter revenue of $5.65 billion–$6.15 billion and earnings of $2.23–$2.57 per share. The revenue midpoint exceeds the market estimate reported before the release. Reuters’ results report confirms the stronger-than-expected outlook.

Texas Instruments’ manufacturing strategy is another long-term bullish factor. Its 300-millimetre wafer facilities should reduce unit costs once utilisation rises. The company generated $8.7 billion in trailing-12-month operating cash flow and $6.5 billion in free cash flow while investing $3.3 billion in capital expenditure.

The risk is that semiconductor recoveries frequently produce temporary inventory restocking. Customers that reduced inventories during the downturn may now be ordering more aggressively, creating exceptional near-term growth without permanently changing end demand.

The shares had also risen roughly 70% during 2026 before the report. When a stock has already repriced sharply, beating consensus may not be sufficient; results must exceed the higher expectations held by investors who bought during the rally.

TXN Daily Chart

Texas Instruments fell approximately 3%–4% after hours. The reaction is cautionary but not yet a confirmed technical breakdown because after-hours liquidity is thinner. The next regular-session close will matter more. A recovery above the pre-earnings closing area would indicate that buyers considered the decline excessive; continued selling would suggest the stock had reached short-term valuation exhaustion.

$Texas Instruments(TXN)$’s daily chart is constructive but not yet an ideal chase, as the stock has rebounded from the rising trendline near $280–$285 and remains above the more important $273.88 support, while now testing a congestion and resistance area around $294–$300. A decisive daily close above $300, followed by acceptance above that level, would confirm improving momentum and create a potential path toward $310–$320, with the prior high near $332 as a secondary target; however, rejection at $300 could send the shares back toward the trendline, and a close below $273.88 would materially weaken the structure and raise the risk of the large $240–$258 gap becoming relevant. The cleaner options trade would therefore be a 60–90 DTE $295/$320 call debit spread, entered only after a confirmed breakout above $300, which limits premium outlay and time-decay exposure compared with a naked call. Traders preferring premium collection could instead wait for a successful retest of $280–$285 and sell a defined-risk $275/$265 bull put spread, provided the credit adequately compensates for the downside risk.

The fundamental evidence leans bullish because growth is broad, guidance is strong and 300-mm manufacturing should support long-term economics. The price reaction suggests near-term expectations became overheated. The bullish view would be invalidated by weakening industrial orders, renewed customer inventory correction or capital expenditure failing to produce higher free cash flow and margins. This is personal opinion for education and is not financial advice.

@Tiger_SG @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger @Daily_Discussion

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are personal opinions based on publicly available information and are subject to change without notice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented.