To The Moon

1. Weekly Recap

$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ gained 1.43% and closed at 5,588.34, as strength in gold proxies, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, and Thai/Chinese energy SDRs offset weakness in Tencent and Indonesian financials.

Sectors: Gold (+16.02%) led on safe-haven demand and precious-metals momentum. Health Care Equipment (+14.39%) surged on med-tech innovation. Broadline Retail (+12.91%) advanced on consumer reopening, while Food Distributors (+11.41%) tracked resilient grocery demand.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ +10.19% — The Chinese shipbuilder extended its rally on strong order-book momentum and Southeast Asia defense-spending tailwinds.

• $SMIC HK SDR 5to1(HSMD.SI)$ +6.31% — The Chinese foundry's SDR advanced on domestic AI chip demand and tech-decoupling proxy positioning.

• $PetroCN HK SDR 1to2(HPCD.SI)$ +6.39% — The oil major's SDR gained on firm Brent crude and OPEC+ supply discipline.

• $Bank of CN HK SDR 1to1(HBND.SI)$ +4.79% — The Chinese state-owned bank's SDR rose on defensive positioning and attractive dividend yield.

• $Ping An Ins HK SDR2to1(HPAD.SI)$ +4.02% — The insurer's 2-to-1 SDR advanced on high-dividend-yield attraction; the stock pays a TTM dividend yield of 2.95%.

• $PTTEP TH SDR 1to1(TPED.SI)$ +3.59% — The Thai oil & gas producer's SDR climbed on resilient petroleum output and a 6.54% TTM dividend yield.

• $DBS(D05.SI)$ +2.75% — Singapore's largest bank continued its post-earnings ascent on record Q1 profit and 17.0% ROE.

• $UOB(U11.SI)$ +2% — The third-largest local bank edged up on ASEAN commercial banking momentum.

• $BBCA ID SDR 1to2(IBKD.SI)$ -4.26% — The Indonesian private bank's SDR pulled back on thin-liquidity volatility and regional financial-sector rotation.

• $Tencent HK SDR 10to1(HTCD.SI)$ -5.39% — The internet giant's SDR slumped on gaming and fintech valuation compression, tracking Hong Kong weakness.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

2. This Week’s Key Focus for Singapore Market

A. Top External Macro Catalysts (Market Driver)

1. July FOMC Meeting (30 Jul, 2AM SG Time)

   Market expects rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. All focus on Powell’s hawkish/dovish signals for September hike odds.

• Hawkish tone: Treasury yields jump → S-REITs pull back; local banks outperform as high-yield defensive play

• Dovish hints of 2027 rate cuts: Broad rally across STI, REIT re-rating accelerates

2. US Q2 Advance GDP (30 Jul)

   Consensus 1.8%-2.2%. Hot growth reinforces Fed hawkishness; weak print benefits Singapore dividend assets.

3. Big Tech Earnings (Apple, Microsoft, Meta)

   AI capex guidance directly impacts SG-listed semiconductor & industrial counters tied to tech supply chain.

B. Singapore Domestic Data Releases

1. June Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX)

   AI electronics exports fuelled May’s strong print; weak NODX will weigh on ST Engineering, Venture Corp.

2. June Retail Sales

   Reflects domestic consumption momentum for consumer & real estate stocks.

C. Core STI Sectors to Watch

1. Local Big 3 Banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB, ~50% STI weight)

   The backbone of the 8-week rally; high 4%-5.5% dividend yield, resilient NIM & wealth management inflows. Track institutional target price upgrades.

2. S-REITs

   Most volatile sector this week, fully sensitive to Fed rate path. Data centre & commercial trusts are key tickers.

3. AI Industrial Plays (ST Engineering, Venture)

   Correlated with global tech spending & export prints.

D. Capital Flow & Policy Backdrop

• SGD6.5b EQDP market support fund provides consistent bottom-buying liquidity.

• Monitor inflows from global family offices & institutional investors; sustained inflows extend the STI winning streak.

• SGD exchange rate swing driven by Fed policy, impacts firms with overseas assets.

E. Key Downside Risks

1. Powell commits to a possible September 25bp hike, spiking US yields and pressuring REITs.

2. Disappointing June NODX data drags industrial heavyweights lower.

6. Weekly Trading Takeaway

All price action pivots on the FOMC outcome; market remains narrow, with banks as defensive leaders while REITs swing on rate expectations. Key STI levels: resistance at 5600 all-time high, support at 5480.