To The Moon

Everyone is talking about the RTS Link. Just 5 minutes from Woodlands to Johor Bahru. Finally, no more spending hours stuck in the Causeway traffic.

Reports say Singaporeans could spend an extra S$1.05 billion a year in Johor, while Malaysians are expected to spend around S$756 million in Singapore. If those estimates are accurate, it means more money will be flowing out of Singapore than coming in.

📈 Who benefits first?

Johor, for sure.

Expect shopping malls, restaurants, hotels and tourist spots to be packed, especially on weekends. Property prices there have already started moving up.

But I don't think this excitement will last forever.

After the initial rush, people usually go back to their normal routines.

🚉 Will RTS really replace buses and cars?

Not everyone.

Many daily commuters may still stick to buses, driving or company transport. Woodlands North isn't exactly convenient for everyone, and many people still need to change trains or buses.

I think RTS will be very popular for weekend shopping and short trips, but weekdays may not be as crowded as many expect.

Just now I saw another article in Business Times. Retail rents in Singapore still went up 0.6% in Q2, but vacancy rate is creeping up. They trying to sound positive, talk about “upward trend”, new brands coming in, tourist spending etc. 

But Muthu boy can see what’s happening.

We are in the frog in boiling water phase lah. Vacancy rates climbing slowly, operating costs high, but news media downplay everything and focus on small rent increase. Singapore retailers already suffering from high labour cost, high rent, and now consumers tightening pockets + easier to shop in JB.

🛒 Now add Pinduoduo into the picture...

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$  

$GraniteShares 2x Long PDD Daily ETF(PDDL)$  

With its aggressive marketing and ultra-cheap prices, sales will probably explode gaining market share from the retailers of Singapore and Malaysian. 

Just look at your Instagram, Facebook and TikTok. They're flooded with advertisements targeting Singaporeans and Malaysians , especially from Johor businesses, online sellers and cross-border deals.

Everyone loves discounts, flash sales and bargain hunting.

🏆 Who are the winners?

✅ Consumers in Singapore and Malaysia get more choices and lower prices.

✅ Johor businesses enjoy more visitors and spending.

❌ Retailers on both sides face tougher competition from Pinduoduo.

❌ Singapore retailers could feel the most pressure because of higher labour costs, expensive rent and consumers becoming more careful with spending.

💭 My view

The hype will be huge when RTS first opens, but after a while things should stabilise. One thing that may not improve is Johor's traffic. With more visitors crossing over, congestion could become an even bigger headache.

❌ Singapore retailers aren't losing because of the RTS. The real issue is the high cost of doing business in Singapore. Expensive rent, higher wages and rising operating costs have already squeezed retailers. The RTS just makes it easier for shoppers to cross over to Johor.

Even Sea's Shopee $Sea Ltd(SE)$  is feeling the pressure. Competition from Pinduoduo, TikTok Shop and Lazada has intensified significantly. As Shopee scales back promotions and sellers face higher platform fees and operating costs, it risks losing market share to rivals that continue offering aggressive discounts and incentives.

Another factor is that some new permanent residents and newly naturalized citizens who have close family overseas may choose to spend some weekends and public holidays back in their hometowns. That's understandable, as many still have strong family ties and personal connections there.

Malaysia still has a clear advantage when it comes to everyday food. In general, consumers enjoy a wider variety of choices, larger portions and better value for money than what is commonly available in Singapore. Combined with the favourable exchange rate, it's no surprise that many people  choose to dine in Johor whenever they can.

What do you think? Will the RTS change shopping habits permanently, or will everything return to normal after the excitement fades?