To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Jul2026)

Consumption and Consumer Sentiment

June’s Durable Goods orders are forecast to rise by 1.6%, a notable improvement from the previous reading of -4.5%. This rebound is a positive indicator for consumption and suggests stronger demand momentum.

The CB Consumer Confidence reading for July is forecast at 92.1. This points to weaker consumer confidence and lower market optimism, which may influence future consumption patterns.

Energy Demand Indicator

Crude oil inventories remain an important reference point for assessing producer expectations and future consumption. If inventories come in above expectations, it may suggest stronger supply conditions; if they fall below expectations, it could point to firmer demand.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

The most important and closely watched event in the coming week will be the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Current forecasts suggest that rates may remain unchanged at 3.75%.

However, the market’s focus will likely be on the FOMC statement and press conference. Investors will be looking for guidance from the Federal Reserve on its policy outlook, inflation expectations, and future rate path.

Any suggestion of a potential rate increase could trigger higher market volatility, especially if the Fed signals a more cautious or hawkish stance.

Inflation and GDP Growth Data

The next key release will be the June Core PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. This data will be important in shaping expectations for the direction and timing of future interest rate decisions.

If the Core PCE Price Index remains elevated or continues to trend higher, the Federal Reserve may face pressure to raise rates faster than markets expect.

Second-quarter GDP will also be announced, with growth forecast at 2.3%. This would be an improvement from the previous 2.1% reading and would provide a useful indication of the economy’s overall strength.

Labour Market Update

Initial jobless claims will be another important release in the coming week. The previous reading stood at 187,000. If claims rise, this could become an additional factor for the Federal Reserve to consider when assessing the labour market and future policy direction.

Manufacturing Outlook

The week will conclude with two important manufacturing indicators:

· July Chicago PMI: A key reference for the manufacturing outlook in Chicago.

· China Manufacturing PMI for July: Forecast at 49.9, which suggests mild contraction. Beyond China’s domestic economy, this figure also provides insight into broader global demand conditions.

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