To The Moon

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ completed the largest initial public offering in history in June, but its shares have since fallen below their $135 offering price. The decline shows that even a dominant launch and satellite company must ultimately justify its valuation through revenue, cash flow and capital discipline.

SpaceX priced its IPO on June 11 and began trading on June 12. The company sold approximately 555.6 million shares and raised $75 billion, valuing the business at roughly $1.77 trillion. Elon Musk retained approximately 82% voting control. Reuters’ June 11 IPO report provides the financing and governance details.

The bullish case begins with vertical integration. SpaceX manufactures rockets, launches payloads and operates Starlink, enabling it to reuse launch capacity for its own satellite network. Starlink’s large installed constellation creates subscription revenue from households, businesses, governments, airlines and maritime customers.

Reusable rockets provide a significant cost advantage. Frequent launches allow SpaceX to spread engineering and infrastructure expenses over more missions, while competitors often purchase launch services externally or operate at a much lower cadence.

The company is also attempting to expand into direct-to-device communications and AI infrastructure. These opportunities could substantially increase its addressable market, but they require enormous investment before returns are certain.

That capital intensity is the central bearish risk. Reuters reported before the offering that Starlink was SpaceX’s only profitable segment, while its other activities were consuming cash. Starship development, satellite replacement, launch facilities and new computing infrastructure could continue absorbing much of the IPO capital. Reuters’ pre-IPO analysis discusses the profitability imbalance.

Competition is also strengthening. Amazon is building competing broadband and direct-to-device satellite networks, while Blue Origin, AST SpaceMobile and terrestrial telecom carriers target overlapping markets.

SPCX Daily Chart

SpaceX closed at approximately $113.50 on July 27, around 16% below its $135 IPO price and nearly 50% below its early post-listing high near $225.

SPCX’s daily chart remains technically weak, with price locked in a persistent downtrend after falling from the June high near $225.64 and breaking below the intermediate Fibonacci levels around $170.67 and $147.41. The stock is now attempting to stabilize near $110–$115, but the declining sequence of lower highs and lower lows has not yet been interrupted, and the next major downside reference sits near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension around $98.58.

Because the chart has not produced a confirmed reversal, buying calls or selling puts here would be premature and could amount to catching a falling blade. The cleaner trade would be a 45–60 DTE $110/$100 put debit spread only after a decisive daily close below roughly $110, targeting the $98–$100 area while limiting risk; alternatively, bullish traders should wait for $SpaceX(SPCX)$ to establish a base and reclaim approximately $120–$125 before considering a defined-risk call spread.

The long-term business outlook leans moderately bullish because launch leadership and Starlink create a difficult-to-replicate platform. The stock outlook is neutral because the valuation still assumes enormous future success. The constructive view would be invalidated by slowing Starlink growth, persistent consolidated losses, major launch setbacks or capital spending that fails to produce scalable cash flow. This is personal opinion for education and is not financial advice.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are personal opinions based on publicly available information and are subject to change without notice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented.