To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s proposed involvement in financing an enormous OpenAI data centre represents a significant change in its risk profile. Supplying AI chips is highly profitable; guaranteeing financing that enables customers to purchase those chips potentially exposes Nvidia to the financial risk behind the demand.

The Wall Street Journal reported on July 26 that Nvidia was discussing approximately $250 billion of financing guarantees for an OpenAI-led, 10-gigawatt data-centre project in Ohio. Nvidia was also reportedly considering financing as much as $350 billion of OpenAI chip purchases. The entire project could cost more than $500 billion. Neither arrangement had been finalized at the research cut-off. Reuters’ report on the financing discussions provides the details and reporting date.

The bullish interpretation is that Nvidia has accumulated enough financial strength to accelerate the AI ecosystem. Its fiscal first quarter, reported May 20, produced record revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85%, while Data Center revenue increased 92% to $75.2 billion. Nvidia’s official first-quarter results confirm those figures.

Helping OpenAI secure infrastructure could protect future demand for Nvidia’s GPUs, networking products and software. The project’s first 800 megawatts of capacity is expected in 2028, potentially extending Nvidia’s order visibility beyond the current product cycle.

The bearish interpretation is that Nvidia may be moving toward vendor financing. If a supplier finances or guarantees the customer purchasing its products, reported demand can become partly dependent on the supplier’s own balance sheet. Nvidia would then carry credit and project-execution risks that were previously borne mainly by customers and lenders.

The market reacted cautiously. Nvidia fell approximately 5% on July 27 to close around $196.

NVDA Daily Chart

NVDA’s daily chart is testing a critical $191–$195 support zone, an area that previously acted as resistance and has since attracted buyers on multiple occasions; however, the latest sharp decline shows that momentum remains fragile, so the stock is not yet a clean bullish entry without reversal confirmation. A successful defence of this zone, followed by a daily close back above roughly $200–$205, would improve the setup and could support a rebound toward $208–$212, followed by the larger $218–$220 resistance band.

A defined-risk trade would be a 45–60 DTE $190/$180 bull put credit spread, entered only after NVDA produces a bullish reversal and reclaims $200, allowing the position to benefit from time decay while placing the short strike near support. A decisive daily close below $191 would invalidate the support thesis and could expose the stock to a deeper retracement toward approximately $184–$188, so bullish positions should be avoided or reassessed if that breakdown occurs.

Nvidia’s operating fundamentals remain bullish, but the reported financing structure introduces moderately bearish balance-sheet and demand-quality concerns. That caution would be invalidated if Nvidia’s exposure is tightly limited, OpenAI provides strong collateral and independent customers continue expanding orders without supplier support. This is personal opinion for education and is not financial advice.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are personal opinions based on publicly available information and are subject to change without notice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented.